• Project Café East Asia 2024 shows the total East Asian branded coffee shop market grew 24% in terms of outlets over the last 12 months to reach 119,221 stores, with China representing nearly 42% of the total market.
• 17 out of the largest 18 East Asian markets achieved net outlet growth over the past 12 months, with seven markets experiencing double digit store growth.
• Eighty-five percent of the 645 branded coffee chains currently in operation across East Asia originate in the region with 95 operators from outside the continent.
• 72% of East Asian industry leaders surveyed report increased sales over the last 12 months, with the same percentage believing trading conditions will further improve next year.

China leads significant coffee shop growth across East Asia

China has overtaken the US as the largest branded coffee shop market in the world by outlets, growing
58% over the last 12 months to reach 49,691 outlets. Growth was led by the rapid expansion of small
store format and delivery focused Luckin Coffee and Cotti Coffee, which added 5,059 and 6,004 net new stores respectively. Starbucks opened net 785 outlets in China during the period and is the second
largest branded coffee operator in the country by outlets.

China is the fastest growing market in East Asia ahead of Malaysia (28%) and the Philippines (15.3%).
Overall, six of the largest ten markets by outlets achieved double-digit outlet growth over the last 12
months.

Starbucks remains East Asia’s largest coffee chain – but competitors challenge dominance

Starbucks remains the largest branded coffee chain in East Asia, having opened 1,223 net new outlets in the last 12 months to reach 13,524 stores across 15 markets. However, domestic operators such as
South Korea’s Mega Coffee, Indonesia’s Tomoro Coffee and Malaysia’s Zus Coffee are challenging
Starbucks’ dominance and increasing their market share.

As the total East Asian branded coffee shop market matures, rapidly expanding operators are
increasingly seeking international growth opportunities. Cotti Coffee has entered South Korea, Indonesia, Japan and Hong Kong since opening its first store in China in 2022, while Luckin Coffee, Kopi Kenangan and Compose Coffee all opened their first international stores within the last 12 months.

Convenience key concern for Chinese coffee consumers

More than 90% of 4,000 Chinese coffee shop consumers surveyed drink hot coffee weekly, while 64%
consume iced coffee at least once a week. Indicating the role of coffee shops in driving consumption,
89% of consumers surveyed visit or order from a coffee shop at least once a week with a fifth of those
doing so daily.

Small format stores focused on convenience are widespread in the Chinese branded coffee shop market. More than 85% of those surveyed have pre-ordered or ordered for delivery from a coffee shop within the last 12 months, with 57% preferencing beverage delivery over visiting a coffee shop.

Industry optimism remains high with further sales and outlet growth on the horizon

The majority (72%) of industry leaders surveyed achieved annual sales growth in their respective markets, with the same percentage positive about current trading conditions.

World Coffee Portal forecasts the total East Asian branded coffee shop market will exceed 136,500 outlets by November 2024, and 181,500 by 2028 representing five-year growth of 8.8% CAGR.

China’s booming outlet growth is expected to slow to 24% in 2024 and 6% in 2028, while Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines are forecast to achieve double-digit outlet growth over the next three
years.

Commenting on the report findings, Allegra Group founder and CEO, Jeffrey Young said, “The East Asian coffee shop market is clearly experiencing rapid growth led by phenomenal outlet expansion in China, which has fast become a global coffee industry powerhouse. It is encouraging to see the established South Korean and Japanese markets continue to perform strongly alongside the growth of coffee culture in fast-developing markets such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia.”

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Last week I visited Indonesia with a group of international journalists, organised by ofi (formerly Olam) to learn about the green coffee supplier’s regenerative practices and decarbonisation strategies in Aceh (12 hours by car from Medan). ofi is one of the top three suppliers of green coffee globally and operates in 18 growing origins across Africa, Asia, Central and South America. ofi has been in Indonesia since 1996, and today buys coffee, cocoa, nutmeg, and black and white pepper from more than 400,000 farmers, collectors and suppliers throughout the archipelago. Presently, ofi exports Arabica and Robusta, and has a combined market share of approximately 15%.

ofi’s Coffee LENS 2022 impact report (published in November) noted that in 2022, the company introduced regenerative land practices to an area equivalent to 47,000 football (soccer) fields, increased the share of renewable energy in its processing facilities to more than 50%, and achieved over 81% traceability to farmer/farmer group/regional level. ofi’s availability of sustainable coffee stands at more than 40% (directly sourced).

On the coffee farms throughout Aceh, we observed farmer training sessions on agroforestry, composting, and other regenerative practices in action (including fertiliser made from fruit that is safe for human consumption). We also participated in a mock polygon mapping, which ofi has been doing as part of its sustainability practices but this also meets EU requirements for traceability and environmental due diligence. We then had the opportunity to learn about post-harvest processing at wet and dry mills, and cup a variety of coffees (some were truly amazing, at least according to my limited palate).

The trip fell amid the peak of the second harvest period, when farm activities, post-harvest practices and processing were in full swing. During this time, ofi hosts its annual Farmers’ Day celebration, which, designed by its Indonesia team, acknowledges and rewards the efforts and engagement of the farmers in ofi’s supply chain in Aceh. Activities will include games, cultural displays, and distribution of premiums to the farmers. One of the more interesting awards was given to farmers in the cooperative who have downloaded – and are using – a banking app, in order to encourage more farmers to do so.

It is always beneficial to be able to interact with the farmers and politely pepper them with questions about being a coffee farmer – the rewards and challenges – what it is like working with new technologies and learning new coffee-growing methods and techniques, and of course, implementing the growing number of sustainability strategies, as well as to see how they operate and often, where and how they live (unlike many coffee-growing regions, in Indonesia, the farmers do not live on their coffee farms). And while speaking with the farmers, their children are most often not far behind, eyes wide open with curiosity. Some of the brave will come up – always in a group, never alone – and ask questions in the English they are learning. Then they giggle and run away, which is adorable.

On the occasion of ofi’s third Farmers’ Day, our group was treated to a special performance by the children, choreographed just for us. It was beautiful, fun and heartwarming.

When we visited Aceh, the prolonged and heavy rains had delayed the bulk of the harvest (some coffee had been picked), and while stressful for the farmers, on this special day celebrating them, the joy on their faces was evident, knowing that they were being appreciated for their efforts.

• Vanessa L Facenda, editor, Tea & Coffee Trade Journal.
  Keep in touch via email: vanessa@bellpublishing.com Twitter: @TCTradeJournal or LinkedIn: Tea & Coffee Trade Journal

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This is its second location outside of Bali and first in the capital, where the company says it endeavors to bring an exceptional coffee experience to the heart of the bustling capital.

Located on the 13th floor of the Mori Building Jakarta in Sudirman, Central Jakarta, the 100m² wide coffee sanctuary will service the entire building and the general public with a blend of modern aesthetics and warm hospitality.

“This has been seven years in the making and we are incredibly excited to bring Expat.Roasters to Jakarta,” said Shae Macnamara, founder and CEO of Expat.Roasters.

“This city’s vibrant energy and love for coffee make it the perfect destination for our latest brew bar and we look forward to servicing the city not only at our brew bar, but also through our trusted partners.”

Expat.Roasters has a commitment to quality, innovation, and education and their Jakarta branch aims to continue this legacy by offering a diverse range of meticulously sourced and roasted coffee beans from Indonesia and around the world.

Expat. Roasters Jakarta was architecturally designed by WHAstudio in collaboration with Sydney-based X plus O Design Studio.

“Curating the design for Expat.Roasters Jakarta’s latest coffee shop, was once again a great experience. Our aspiration was to transcend the conventional and create a fusion of contemporary aesthetics that transports the essence of Bali to the heart of Jakarta’s urban landscape, all whilst following the strong brand guidelines of Expat. Roasters.

“The design journey embraced the challenge of crafting an oasis within the bustling walls of an office high-rise. The contemporary design elements, with its natural textures evokes the feeling of Bali’s charm and tranquility in Jakarta, offering customers an escape from the city,” said Wilson Harkhono, principal architect at WHAstudio.

Expat. Roasters Jakarta is located at the Jakarta Mori Tower, 13th floor, Jl. Jenderal Sudirman and operates Monday to Sunday from 7am.

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Green Coffee Price
The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 153.13 US cents/lb in September, posting a median value of 152.74 US cents/lb and fluctuating between 147.86 and 160.17 US cents/lb.

The Robustas remained at a near-record high in September, staying firmly above the 120.00 US cents/lb mark. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds decreased by 1.4% and 1.7%, to 184.98 and 183.52 US cents/lb, respectively, in September 2023. The Brazilian Naturals and Robustas both contracted by 0.3% and 0.6%, reaching an average of 154.19 and 123.89 US cents/lb, respectively. ICE’s New York market fell by 1.9%, whilst the London Futures market shrank by 2.0%, to 153.55 and 109.14 US cents/lb, respectively.

The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential grew 79.1% to 1.46 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential shrank 6.4% to 30.79 US cents/lb, whilst the Colombian Milds-Robustas differential also contracted 2.9% from August to September 2023, averaging 61.09 US cents/lb. Meanwhile, the Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals and the Other Milds-Robustas both contracted 8.6 and 4.0%, reaching 29.33 and 59.63 US cents/lb, respectively. However, the Brazilian Naturals-Robustas differentials expanded 0.9%, averaging 30.30 US cents/lb in September 2023.

In September 2023, the Colombian Milds-Other Milds Arabica differential fluctuated between positive and negative.

Arbitrage, as measured between the London and New York Futures markets, narrowed by 1.8% to 44.41 US cents/lb in September 2023. This marks the lowest point since October 2019, when arbitrage sat at 44.07 US cents/lb.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP followed a consistent downtrend, reaching 6.3%, a 0.7 percentage point decrease between August and September 2023. The Robustas presented the strongest volatility decrease, with a 1.3 percentage point drop, averaging 7.4% for the month of September. The Colombian Milds’ and Other Milds’ volatility also contracted to 6.5% and 6.8%. Meanwhile, the Brazilian Naturals’ volatility dropped by 0.7 percentage points to 8.1% from August to September 2023, whilst the London futures market’s volatility also decreased by 2.1 to 7.3%. Lastly, the New York futures market’s volatility moved in the same direction as London, retracting by 0.9 percentage points and reaching 7.7% for New York.

The New York and London certified stocks moved in opposite directions, where London grew 25.7% to 0.73 million 60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Arabica coffee reached 0.49 million 60-kg bags, a 13.8% decrease.

The absence of market participants, as evidenced by the falling exports (see Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans), continued to prevail over the I-CIP, explaining the overarching trajectory of the I-CIP in September. However, currency movements, market sentiments, dwindling supplies, weather and the fundamentals all played their part in the coffee price movements in September, which saw the I-CIP rally, before falling once again due to foreign exchange movements.

From 22 August to 19 September 2023, the I-CIP recovered, increasing from a low of 148.79 to 160.17 US Cents/lb, ie, an increase of 7.6%. This came on the back of reports of heavy rain in Brazil and a continued fall in the certified stocks held at the New York ICE warehouses. Somar Meteorologia, a Brazilian meteorology company, reported on 5 September that Brazil’s Minas Gerais region, the country’s largest coffee producing region, received 22.8 mm of rain in the past week, or 308% of the historical average, leading to speculation regarding a delay in the completion of Brazil’s coffee harvest. Meanwhile, ICE’s Arabica inventories fell to a low of 0.49 million bags in September. The impact of these positive factors was more profound on the prices of the Arabicas, particularly the Brazilian Naturals which rallied by 5.3% and 81.%, respectively.

Nevertheless, this rally was halted and reversed by the sharp weakening of the real against the US dollar. From 19 to 29 September the real depreciated by 3.2%, from 4.87 to 5.03, while the I-CIP fell by 7.1% over the same period. Once again, the negative impact was felt relatively more by the Arabicas (-8.1%) and particularly the Brazilian Naturals (-9.3%) as compared with Robustas (-5.9%). The price of the Robustas fell at a relatively slower rate due to Vietnam’s current dwindling supply (see Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee), with supply from the 2023/24 harvest still at least two months away in November at the earliest.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in August 2023 totalled 9.36 million bags, as compared with 9.07 million bags in the same month of the previous year, up 3.2%. As a result, the cumulative total for 2022/23 to August is 102.9 million bags, as compared with 108.26 million bags over the same period a year ago, down 5.0%.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 9.7% in August 2023 to 1.99 million bags from 2.2 million bags in the same period last year. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports continued to fall, decreasing by 12.2% in the first 11 months of coffee year 2022/23 to 20.56 million bags, versus 23.42 million bags over the same period in 2021/22.

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals increased in August 2023, rising by 10.2% to 3.06 million bags. For the first 11 months of coffee year 2022/23, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals amounted to 31.5 million bags, down 8.0% from 34.22 million bags over the same period a year ago. Changes to the fortunes of the Brazilian Naturals are mainly due to changes in Brazil’s total green bean exports, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, which also increased in August 2023 (27.6%) to 3.35 million bags from 2.63 million bags in August 2022.

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 2.1% to 0.84 million bags in August 2023 from 0.86 million bags in August 2022, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 5.6% in August 2023. This is the fourteenth consecutive month of negative growth for the Colombian Milds and, as a result, the exports of this group of coffee for October 2022 to August 2023 were down 12.5%, at 9.9 million bags, as compared with 11.32 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22.

Green bean exports of the Robustas amounted to 3.47 million bags in August 2023, as compared with 3.22 million bags in August 2022, up 7.3%. This is the fifth consecutive month of positive growth for the Robustas and, as a result, the exports of this group of coffee for October 2022 to August 2023 were up 4.2%, at 40.94 million bags, as compared with 39.31 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In August 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee increased by 13.0% to 4.98 million bags. This is the first positive growth rate for the region since the 0.3% expansion in June 2022. The source of both the positive and strength of growth is Brazil, which saw its exports increase by 24.4% to 3.67 million bags from 2.95 million bags in August 2022. More specifically, it was the Robustas from the origin, which in August increased by 388.1% to 0.7 million bags from 0.14 million bags, that drove the region’s positive growth. The August 2023 exports are Brazil’s highest on record for Robusta coffee, beating the 696,873 bags exported in December 2014.

Fundamentally, the region’s turnaround is due to the recent downturn in Asia and Oceania, especially in Vietnam, the world’s largest Robusta producer and exporter. Pointedly, Brazil is the largest producer and exporter of Robustas in South America, and it has been taking advantage of the reduced volume of Robustas coming out of Vietnam. It is pertinent to note that Brazil is the fifth biggest exporter of Robustas in the world, having shipped 1.87 million bags in coffee year 2021/22 as compared with the 25.44 million bags exported from Vietnam or the 4.89 million, 4.28 million and 4.03 million bags from Uganda, India and Indonesia, respectively, the second, third and fourth largest exporters. However, in August 2023, Brazilian Robusta exports were second only to Vietnam with 1.34 million bags. To put this into perspective, in August 2023 Brazil exported the equivalent of four-and-half months’ worth of Robustas in a single month (as measured against the total Robusta exports in coffee year 2021/22).

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa increased by 10.9% to 1.37 million bags in August 2023 from 1.23 million bags in August 2022. For the first 11 months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 10.84 million bags as compared with 12.31 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, down 1.5%. This is the third consecutive month of positive growth rate for the region. The continued global demand for Robustas, as reflected in the latest cumulative positive growth rates for Robusta green bean exports, is the fundamental source of Africa’s positive export growth rate in August. However, like the situation in South America, the reduced volume from the Asia and Pacific region, and more pointedly Vietnam, explains this growth.

Uganda, the largest producer and exporter of Robusta coffee in Africa, took the opportunity to fill the gap in the market left by Vietnam, increasing its exports by 48.4% to 0.74 million bags in August 2023 from 0.5 million bags in August 2022. This represents the second largest monthly exports on record, just behind the 0.79 million bags exported in March 1973.

In August 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 2.0% to 1.23 million bags as compared with 1.26 million in August 2022. As a result, total exports are down 2.6% from October 2022 to August 2023 at 14.57 million bags, as compared with 14.96 million bags for the same period a year ago. The relatively shallow negative growth rate of the region masked the dynamic changes at the individual country level.

Two origins experienced strong positive growth rates (Honduras and Nicaragua), with a combined 37.2% increase in August 2023, while three others experienced sharp negative growth rates (Costa Rica, Guatemala and Mexico), with a combined 20.5% decrease. Honduras and Nicaragua outperformed both the region and group of coffee (Other Milds) to which they predominantly belong in August. This may reflect their competitive edge over other origins in Mexico and Central America – the average export unit value of Arabica green beans for Honduras and Nicaragua was 157 US cents/lb for coffee years 2017/18–2021/22, while it was on average 63 US cents/lb higher for the others (excluding Cuba, Haiti and Jamaica) at 220 US cents/lb.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania decreased by 14.9% to 2.72 million bags in August 2023 and but were up 1.3% to 41.28 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2022/23. August’s downturn was mainly due to Vietnam, with exports down 23.6% to 1.44 million bags from 1.98 million bags. This is the lowest month of August exports since the 1.4 million bags shipped in 2012. The decrease can be attributed to the depletion of available supply, reflecting the strength of its exports in the first 10 month of the current coffee year, where between October 2022 and July 2023 Vietnam shipped 25.98 million bags –3.3% higher than the same period in coffee year 2017/18, a record exporting year when the origin shipped 29.73 million bags over the full year.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 4.6% in August 2023 to 0.89 million bags from 9.3 million bags in August 2022. In the first 11 months of coffee year 2022/23, a total of 10.46 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 5.7% from the 11.09 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year.

Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee for the year to date was 8.6% in August 2023, down from 9.2% for the same period a year ago. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, having shipped 0.32 million bags in August 2023.

Exports of roasted beans were down 39.9% in August 2023 to 58,226 bags, as compared with 96,937 bags in August 2022. The cumulative total for coffee year 2022/23 to June 2023 was 0.66 million bags, as compared with 0.77 million bags in same period a year ago.

Production and Consumption
Under the current circumstances, the estimates and outlook of production and consumption for coffee years 2021/22 and 2022/23 remain the same.

World coffee production decreased by 1.4% to 168.5 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, hampered by the off-biennial production and negative meteorological conditions in a number of key origins. However, it is expected to bounce back by 1.7% to 171.3 million bags in 2022/23. Increased global fertiliser costs and adverse weather conditions are expected to partially offset the positive impact of biennial production from Brazil, explaining the relatively low rate of growth in coffee year 2022/23. The impact of biennial production is anticipated to drive the outlook for Arabica, which is projected to increase by 4.6% to 98.6 million bags in coffee year 2022/23, following a 7.2% decrease in the previous coffee year.

Reflecting its cyclical output, Arabica’s share of the total coffee production is expected to increase to 57.5% from 55.9% in coffee year 2021/22. South America is and will remain the largest producer of coffee in the world, despite suffering from the largest drop in output for almost 20 years, which fell by 7.6% in coffee year 2021/22. The recovery in coffee year 2022/23, partly driven by biennial production, is expected to push the region’s output to 82.4 million bags, a rise of 6.2%.

World coffee consumption increased by 4.2% to 175.6 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, following a 0.6% rise the previous year. Release of the pent-up demand built up during the Covid-19 years and sharp global economic growth of 6.0% in 2021 explains the sharp bounce back in coffee consumption in coffee year 2021/22. Decelerating world economic growth rates for 2022 and 2023, coupled with the dramatic rise in the cost of living, will have an impact on the coffee consumption for coffee year 2022/23. It is expected to grow, but at a decelerating rate of 1.7% to 178.5 million bags. The global deceleration is expected to come from non-producing countries, with Europe’s coffee consumption predicted to suffer the largest decrease among all regions, with growth rates falling to 0.1% in coffee year 2022/23 from a 6.0% expansion in coffee year 2021/22.

As a result, the world coffee market is expected to run another year of deficit, a shortfall of 7.3 million bags.

The outlook is taken from the newest publication of the Statistics Section of the Secretariat of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Coffee Report and Outlook (CRO). The full CRO can be downloaded from the ICO website: icocoffee.org. For further information, contact the Statistics Section at stats@ico.org.

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Climate change is putting coffee-growing areas under pressure. Smallholder coffee farmers are exposed to the risk of irregular weather conditions that can affect their crops.

On the occasion of International Coffee Day, Nestlé announced that it is piloting a weather insurance programme in Indonesia for more than 800 smallholder coffee farmers that supply coffee to its brand, Nescafé. The company is launching the insurance scheme in collaboration with Blue Marble, a specialist in climate insurance. The insurance provides financial protection to help farmers cope with unpredictable weather patterns of rainfall and severe drought.

Marcelo Burity, global head of Nestlé’s green coffee development, said, “This weather insurance helps to establish a support mechanism for smallholder coffee farmers in Indonesia. It allows them to access financial resources to re-establish their crops in the event of irregular weather conditions while building resilience in coffee farms.”

The insurance uses satellite-based climate data to determine when coffee output has been impacted by either too much or not enough rainfall during key phases of the crop cycle. Payments are issued automatically to registered coffee farmers that have been affected, according to the severity of the weather.

“Smallholder coffee farmers in Indonesia are vulnerable to climate risks and need access to insurance to protect against extreme weather events,” said Jaime de Piniés, CEO of Blue Marble. “We are proud to partner with Nestlé and its brand Nescafé to develop innovative ways to support the climate adaptation of smallholder coffee farmers and their families.”

This initiative is an integral part of the Nescafé Plan 2030, the brand’s vision to support the long term sustainability of coffee and to help improve farmers’ livelihoods. Based on the results of the pilot, Nestlé will determine whether to expand the approach to other Nescafé sourcing locations around the world.

Sharing knowledge to accelerate the transition to regenerative agriculture

Changing agricultural practices requires access to knowledge and time to learn and implement. By moving to regenerative agriculture, coffee farmers can help restore soil health, reverse biodiversity loss, and strengthen ecosystems. Doing so also helps reduce the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere.

Nestlé, has contributed to the ‘Regenerative Agriculture for Low-Carbon and Resilient Coffee Farms – A Practical Guidebook,’ developed by the Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT). This guidebook provides field agronomists, trainers and professionals working with coffee farmers with a set of best practices that they can use and adapt to different farming contexts, helping farmers transition to regenerative agriculture. These best practices include agroforestry, intercropping, soil conservation and cover crops, integrated weed and pest management, integrated nutrient management, efficient water use, waste valorisation, landscape actions and the rejuvenation of coffee trees with well adapted varieties.

Pascal Chapot, global head of sustainable agriculture development at Nestlé, said, “The guidebook gives coffee farmers a set of field actions they can implement tomorrow to help them become more resilient to climate change and to diversify their sources of income. Knowledge is key, and we hope that this guidebook makes these regenerative agriculture practices more accessible to farmers and supports an accelerated transition towards them. This is essential to tackling the climate challenges ahead.”

Mirjam Pulleman, senior soil ecologist and co-author of the guidebook said, “Creating real impact on the ground requires learning from real experiences with farmers in different origins and providing incentives to support farmers in their journey. The best practices highlighted in the guidebook are a starting point. Each practice will need to be tailored to the specificities of each country of origin, the different farm types, the surrounding landscapes and the resources available.”

From Nestlé’s perspective, the guidebook complements the Nestlé Regenerative Agriculture Framework (pdf, 18Mb). Nestlé considers regenerative agriculture to be a key component of its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to reach net zero by 2050. It is also a central pillar of its coffee sustainability programmes, the Nescafé Plan 2030 and the Nespresso AAA Sustainable Quality programme.

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The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 154.53 US cents/lb in August, posting a median value of 152.10 US cents/lb and fluctuating between 148.79 and 163.62 US cents/lb.

The Colombian Milds-Other Milds decreased by 1.6% and 3.5%, to 187.55 and 186.73 US cents/lb, respectively, in August 2023. Accentuated by a greater falling rate, the Other Milds fell back below the Colombian Milds. The Brazilian Naturals-Robustas both contracted by 3.0% and 2.3%, reaching an average of 154.66 and 124.62 US cents/lb, respectively. ICE’s New York market fell by 1.9%, whilst the London Futures market shrank by 2.0 % to 156.56 and 111.34 US cents/lb, respectively.

The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential pivoted from –2.91 to 0.82 US cents/lb, returning to the positive after an inverted differential in July 2023. On the one hand, the Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential grew 5.8% to 32.89 US cents/lb, whilst the Colombian Milds-Robustas differential contracted 0.1% from July to August 2023, averaging 62.93 US cents/lb. Meanwhile, the Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals, Other Milds-Robustas and Brazilian Naturals-Robustas differentials contracted by 5.7, 5.8 and 5.9%, reaching 32.07, 62.11 and 30.04 US cents/lb, respectively.

In August 2023, the Colombian Milds-Other Milds Arabica differential had been narrowing considerably and, after thirty-four business days of negative differentials, this trend was reversed on 10th August. The Colombian Milds-Other Milds Arabica differential closed August on a one-month high, though it has not reached such positive lows in four and a half years. In late July and August 2023, the Arabicas-Robusta price movements recoupled, moving once again in tandem. Since April 2023, the price movements of the Arabicas and Robusta were decoupled under price substitution-related pressure, where demand for higher-end qualities has waned in favour of more competitively-priced coffees. However, the recoupling appears to indicate that the price differentials are now sufficiently narrow, and relative price-driven changes in demand (Arabica versus Robusta) may have come to an end.

Arbitrage, as measured between the London and New York Futures markets, narrowed by 1.6% to 45.23 US cents/lb in August 2023. This marks the lowest point since June 2020, where arbitrage sat at 44.73 US cents/lb.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP followed a consistent downtrend, reaching 7.0%, a 0.8 percentage point decrease between July and August 2023. The Other Milds presented the strongest volatility decrease, with a 3.7 percentage point drop, averaging 7.3% for the month of August. The Colombian Milds’ and Brazilian Naturals’ volatility also contracted to 7.5% and 8.8%. Meanwhile, the Robustas’ volatility dropped by 2.3 percentage points to 8.7% from July to August 2023, whilst the London futures market’s volatility increased by 0.2 to 9.4%. However, the New York futures market’s volatility moved in the opposite direction from London, retracting by 0.5 percentage points and reaching 8.6% for New York.

The New York and London certified stocks decreased in tandem by 3.0% and 34.6%, respectively, closing in at 0.57 million 60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 0.58 million 60-kg bags, the lowest in over 20 years.

Downward pressure on prices could be attributed to the lack of aggressive buying of green coffee through the world. Indeed, for the current and previous coffee years (2021/22 and 2022/23), a combined underproduction of 14.4 million 60-kg bags is estimated. At present, there is an apparent decoupling between consumption and exports. There is little evidence of the former falling, while the latter for the current coffee year is down 5.7%. A plausible explanation could be the drawing down of stocks. During the Covid-19 pandemic, buyers, roasters and traders would have built up large stocks of coffee that must now be utilised before they perish. This may help to explain why exports are falling, coffee year on coffee year, thus applying negative pressure on the I-CIP. The broad drawdown of stocks is perhaps, further illustrated by the historic lows of the ICE stocks.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in July 2023 totalled 9.31 million bags, as compared with 9.3 million bags in the same month of the previous year, up 0.1%. As a result, the cumulative total for 2022/23 to July is 93.56 million bags versus 99.2 million bags over the same period a year ago, down 5.7%.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 13.7% in July 2023 to 2.20 million bags from 2.55 million bags in the same period last year. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports continued to fall, decreasing by 12.2% in the first 10 months of coffee year 2022/23 to 18.64 million bags versus 21.22 million bags over the same period in 2021/22.

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals increased in July 2023, rising by 2.8% to 2.6 million bags. For the first 10 months of coffee year 2022/23, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals amounted to 28.4 million bags, down 9.7% from 31.45 million bags over the same period a year ago. Changes to the fortunes of the Brazilian Naturals are mainly due to changes in Brazil’s total green bean exports, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, which also increased in July 2023 (10.8%) to 2.7 million bags from 2.43 million bags in July 2022.

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 8.1% to 0.93 million bags in July 2023 from 1.01 million bags in July 2022, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 16.0% in July 2023. This is the thirteenth consecutive month of negative growth for the Colombian Milds and, as a result, the exports of this group of coffee for October 2022 to July 2023 were down 12.9%, at 9.11 million bags from 10.46 million bags in the first 10 months of coffee year 2021/22.

Green bean exports of the Robustas amounted to 3.59 million bags in July 2023, as compared with 3.22 million bags in July 2022, up 11.6%. This is the fourth consecutive month of positive growth for the Robustas and, as a result, the exports of this group of coffee for October 2022 to July 2023 were up 3.8%, at 37.45 million bags, as compared with 36.08 million bags in the first 10 months of coffee year 2021/22.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In July 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 2.2% to 4.16 million bags, mainly driven by Colombia and Peru, which saw their exports fall by 17.1% and 37.5%, respectively. For Colombia, the latest downturn is the thirteenth consecutive month of negative growth, the second longest since the 22-month long streak observed between July 2008 and March 2010. As a result, Colombia’s exports for the first 10 months of coffee year 2022/23 are down to 8.79 million bags, the lowest level over the same 10-month period since coffee year 2012/13, when 7.24 million bags of coffee were shipped from the origin. Issues with local production, caused by meteorological factors, were the reason behind the downturn in exports for much of the current coffee year.

However, since June 2023, price substitution appears to be the main driver of the downturn in exports, with demand switching between the Arabicas, away from the Colombian Milds, of which Colombia is the largest producer, to the Other Milds. In Peru, the weather also played a part in the sharp decrease in exports. The Peruvian National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI) reported that increased rainfall was behind the 1.9% decrease in production in June 2023, which may have filtered through to exports as a reduced availability of supply. However, the magnitude of the decrease in July 2023 is a more reflection of the 64.7% increase in July 2022 – the largest volume of July exports in the last 10 years (0.4 million bags versus an average 0.34 million bags (2013-2022)).

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 1.1% to 1.37 million bags in July 2023 from 1.39 million bags in July 2022. For the first 10 months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 10.84 million bags as compared with 11.27 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, down 3.8%. Once again, however, the relatively shallow negative growth rate of the region masked the dynamic changes at the individual country level. Two origins experienced strong positive growth rates (Tanzania and Uganda), with a combined 23.6% increase in July 2023, while two others experienced sharp negative growth rates (Côte d’Ivoire and Ethiopia), with a combined 26.7% decrease. In Ethiopia, contract disputes arising out of a mismatch between the local purchasing prices and the global market prices continue to negatively impact the volume exports, with exporters withholding the coffee until the disputes are resolved. Uganda’s exports increased by 12.0% in July, which were driven by a good crop harvest in South-Western region, and exporters releasing their stocks.

In July 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were up 9.4% to 1.66 million bags as compared with 1.51 million in July 2022. As a result, total exports are down 1.8% for October 2022-July 2023 at 13.46 million bags, as compared with 13.71 million bags in the same period a year ago. Honduras was the main driver of the positive growth in July 2023.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania decreased by 6.2% to 3.01 million bags in July 2023 and but were up 2.7% to 38.57 million bags in the first 10 months of coffee year 2022/23. July’s downturn was due to the top four origins of the region, India (-3.5%), Indonesia (-9.7%), Papua New Guinea (-25.9%) and Vietnam (5.1%).

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 16.6% in July 2023 to 0.84 million bags from 1.0 million bags in July 2022. In the first 10 months of coffee year 2022/23, a total of 9.58 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 5.7% from the 10.16 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee for the year to date was 9.2% in July 2023, which matched the year-ago period. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 0.31 million bags in July 2023.

Exports of roasted beans were down 12.7% in July 2023 to 57,299 bags, as compared with 65,601 bags in July 2022. The cumulative total for coffee year 2022/23 to June 2023 was 0.6 million bags, as compared with 0.67 million bags in same period a year ago.

Production and Consumption
Under the current circumstances, the estimates and outlook of production and consumption for coffee years 2021/22 and 2022/23 remain the same. World coffee production decreased by 1.4% to 168.5 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, hampered by the off-biennial production and negative meteorological conditions in a number of key origins. However, it is expected to bounce back by 1.7% to 171.3 million bags in 2022/23.

Increased global fertiliser costs and adverse weather conditions are expected to partially offset the positive impact of biennial production from Brazil, explaining the relatively low rate of growth in coffee year 2022/23. The impact of biennial production is anticipated to drive the outlook for Arabica, which is projected to increase by 4.6% to 98.6 million bags in coffee year 2022/23, following a 7.2% decrease in the previous coffee year. Reflecting its cyclical output, Arabica’s share of the total coffee production is expected to increase to 57.5% from 55.9% in coffee year 2021/22. South America is and will remain the largest producer of coffee in the world, despite suffering from the largest drop in output for almost 20 years, which fell by 7.6% in coffee year 2021/22. The recovery in coffee year 2022/23, partly driven by biennial production, is expected to push the region’s output to 82.4 million bags, a rise of 6.2%.

World coffee consumption increased by 4.2% to 175.6 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, following a 0.6% rise the previous year. Release of the pent-up demand built up during the Covid-19 years and sharp global economic growth of 6.0% in 2021 explains the sharp bounce back in coffee consumption in coffee year 2021/22.

Decelerating world economic growth rates for 2022 and 2023, coupled with the dramatic rise in the cost of living, will have an impact on the coffee consumption for coffee year 2022/23. It is expected to grow, but at a decelerating rate of 1.7% to 178.5 million bags. The global deceleration is expected to come from non-producing countries, with Europe’s coffee consumption predicted to suffer the largest decrease among all regions, with growth rates falling to 0.1% in coffee year 2022/23 from a 6.0% expansion in coffee year 2021/22.

As a result, the world coffee market is expected to run another year of deficit, a shortfall of 7.3 million bags.

The outlook is taken from the newest publication of the Statistics Section of the Secretariat of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Coffee Report and Outlook (CRO). For the full report, visit: icocoffee.org.

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Their first location outside of Bali, this milestone expansion further solidifies Expat. Roasters’ commitment to providing exceptional coffee experiences to the vibrant coffee culture of Indonesia.

Located in the heart of Surabaya, the new Expat. Roasters store promises to be a haven for coffee enthusiasts and aficionados alike. Boasting a contemporary and inviting atmosphere, the architecturally designed space offers an immersive coffee experience, coupled with exceptional customer service and an international cuisine.

“We are absolutely delighted to open our third store in Surabaya,” said Shae Macnamara, founder and CEO of Expat. Roasters.

“Surabaya has a rich coffee culture, and we are thrilled to contribute to its growth by offering our unique range of specialty coffees. We have been overwhelmed by the support and love we have received from the Surabayan community, and we look forward to welcoming both our loyal customers and new faces to our newest store.”

Expat. Roasters has built a reputation for sourcing and roasting some of the finest coffee beans from Indonesia and around the world. With a team of passionate coffee experts, they meticulously craft each roast to bring out the distinct flavours and nuances of the beans.

Surabaya’s coffee connoisseurs can expect a wide selection of blends and premium single-origin coffees, expertly brewed to perfection using various brewing methods, including pour-over, espresso, and cold brew.

In addition to its remarkable coffee offerings, the Surabaya store will feature a carefully curated an all-day dining menu, showcasing a fusion of local and international flavors. From locally baked pastries, sandwiches, burgers and a kimchi fried rice alongside classic brunch favourites.

The Brew Bar was architecturally designed by WHAstudio in collaboration with Sydney-based X plus O Design Studio.

“My vision for the Brew Bar was to create a space that not only celebrates the art of coffee-making but also elevates the entire coffee-drinking experience. Working in collaboration with X plus O Design Studio, we aimed to design a contemporary and immersive atmosphere that would captivate coffee enthusiasts and create a haven for their passion, with a touch of Bali. The architectural design is a reflection of Expat. Roasters’ commitment to excellence, and I am thrilled to be a part of this remarkable project.” said Wilson Harkhono, principal architect at WHAstudio.

Expat. Roasters Surabaya is located at Graha family Block PS 15, Pradah Kali Kendal, Dukuh Pakis, Surabaya, East Java.

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From heavy rains and rising temperatures, climate change is one of the biggest threats to the future of coffee and chocolate. In Indonesia, many smallholders who grow these crops struggle to access the proper support to adapt to the conditions and protect their livelihoods.

The Landscape Approach to Sustainable and Climate Change Resilient Cocoa and Coffee Agroforestry (LASCARCOCO) project is a joint investment from the partners of USD8.2m that will aim to assist 6,500 cocoa and coffee farmers in increasing their yields by 25% while conserving 14,000 hectares of the watershed and riparian buffers by 2025.

It is one of six existing projects and USD50 million of investment that USAID, ofi, and other partners are jointly implementing to help farmers be responsible stewards of their environment.

To achieve its aims, the LASCARCOCO project will work towards:

• Improving sustainable livelihoods through training on Good Agricultural Practices and climate-smart agroforestry, where cocoa and coffee are grown alongside other income-generating crops.
• Promoting climate-friendly landscape management to enhance smallholders’ and local communities’ awareness, capacity, and involvement in climate change adaptation.
• Creating transparent and traceable supply chains with all farmers registered on ofi’s OFIS app, providing complete visibility of the environmental and social credentials of the cocoa and coffee from the project.
• Building an evidence-based blueprint for scaling up agroforestry techniques.

Ravi Pokhriyal, president, and regional head – Asia, at ofi, said, “Smallholders are on the frontlines of the climate crisis. Without the right resources and inputs, they can’t grow enough to earn a living, and the world could face a shortage of the coffee and chocolate we all love.”

He continued, “This new partnership demonstrates how the private and public sectors can unite to address these dual challenges. And it’s an example of how ofi is living its purpose to Be the Change for Good Food and a Healthy Future under its Cocoa Compass and Coffee Lens sustainability strategies. For nearly two decades, we’ve collaborated with our customers and partners to deliver positive impact across the value chain in Indonesia, from supporting over 80,000 cocoa and coffee farmers in our programmes to co-creating on-trend products consumers in APAC will love from our processing facility in Indonesia and Singapore Customer Solutions Center. And now, we’re excited to bring our presence on the ground, end-to-end expertise, and digital tools to the LASCARCOCO project.”

“USAID supports Indonesia’s efforts to balance economic growth and conservation,” said USAID Indonesia mission director, Jeff Cohen. “This new partnership will encourage cocoa and coffee farmers to adopt sustainable agroforestry practices that increase forest cover and diversify their crops, strengthening their ability to adapt to climate shocks.”

Discover more about ofi at ofi.com.

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Recently adopted practices include intercropping, mulching and integrated weed management. In 2022, the Nescafé Plan 2030 farmer trainings on regenerative agricultural practices reached more than 100,000 farmers in 14 countries. In addition, 1.4 million trees were planted in and around coffee farms that supply coffee to Nescafé, providing shade to prevent coffee’s over-exposure to the sun and additional revenue sources for farmers.

Rejuvenation of coffee trees is key to improving the yields of coffee farms. In 2022, Nescafé distributed 23 million disease and drought-resistant, high-yield coffee plantlets to help rejuvenate coffee plots, increase productivity and reduce the use of agrochemicals.

Philipp Navratil, head of Nestlé’s Coffee Strategic Business Unit said, “The Nescafé Plan 2030 Progress Report shows the potential of regenerative agriculture to help make coffee farming more sustainable over the long term. We are supporting coffee farmers to make this transition and are giving them the know-how and tools they need to increase yields and income, while helping reduce carbon emissions at the same time.”

Climate change is the number one concern for coffee farmers in the 14 countries assessed by the Rainforest Alliance. It is followed by high input costs and low raw material prices. Most farmers say that the main reasons for the Nescafé Plan’s success are its consistent and high-volume purchases, regular technical assistance on the ground and access to markets.

The Nescafé Plan 2030 is piloting financial support schemes to help farmers transition to more sustainable practices. The pilots have engaged around 3,000 coffee farmers in Côte d’Ivoire, Indonesia and Mexico, countries where farmers earn, on average, less than a living income. These pilots include testing conditional cash incentives to reward the transition to regenerative agriculture and the rejuvenation of coffee plots as well as weather insurance schemes to protect farmers’ income against the unexpected effects of climate change. Although the pilots are still ongoing, Nescafé is seeing encouraging results and strong farmer engagement.

Yustika Muharastri, monitoring and evaluation manager from the Rainforest Alliance said, “The Rainforest Alliance works with the Nescafé team to monitor and assess their efforts through the Nescafé Plan. We have observed encouraging trends, including improved incomes in some countries, and increased adoption of important regenerative practices, such as integrated weed and pest management. We are excited that our ongoing collaboration will continue to provide valuable insights to the Nescafé Plan, further supporting its ambition to improve the livelihoods of many more coffee farmers.”

The Nescafé Plan 2030 aims to issue a progress report every year to provide an update on the evolution of its work in helping coffee farming communities transition to regenerative agriculture practices and improve their livelihoods.

Read the Nescafé Plan 2030 Progress Report (pdf, 12Mb)
Read the Rainforest Alliance Impact Assessment

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“We take immense pride in the substantial progress we have made to reduce our environmental impact and drive positive change within the coffee industry,” says Shae Macnamara, founder and CEO, Expat.Roasters.

“This report not only reflects our commitment to transparency but also marks the beginning of our unwavering dedication to making a lasting impact on both the coffee industry and society as a whole.”

Embracing its environmental ethos, Expat.Roasters has taken strides to reduce its carbon footprint by revolutionising its packaging approach. By shifting from single-use packaging to reusable tins in 2019, the company has effectively eliminated the need for thousands of disposable packages – a substantial step towards mitigating waste and promoting a circular economy.

The 2022 CSR report serves as a comprehensive benchmark, comparing Expat.Roasters’ performance in the previous year with its achievements in 2022.

The report delves into the company’s innovative projects and provides insights into upcoming initiatives. Among the highlights is the sourcing of 98% of Expat.Roasters’ beans locally, reinforcing the company’s dedication to supporting local communities, reducing transportation emissions, and ensuring the freshest and highest-quality coffee for its customers.

In line with its commitment to transparency and enhanced communication, Expat.Roasters will continue to provide more frequent and concise CSR updates across all its brand channels. By keeping stakeholders informed about ongoing initiatives, Expat.Roasters seeks to foster stronger connections, inspire others to follow suit, and pave the way for a more sustainable and socially responsible future, says the company.

To learn more about Expat.Roasters’ CSR initiatives and to access the full CSR report, visit expatroasters.com/pages/sustainability-page.

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Robusta farmers have a new open-access resource at their fingertips—World Coffee Research’s (WCR) Robusta Variety Catalog. The catalogue, which is available in English and Spanish, profiles 47 robusta varieties—from origins such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, Uganda, Mexico, and Vietnam—using 20+ variables, like yield potential, stature, bean size, nutrition requirements, lineage, susceptibility to pests/diseases, and many more. The catalogue is hosted alongside WCR’s existing Arabica Varieties Catalog on the interactive website varieties.worldcoffeeresearch.org.

With robusta’s growing prevalence in the global market, WCR hopes the catalogue will lower the risk associated with coffee farming by providing direct information to enable farmers and other planting decision-makers to make an informed choice about what varieties will grow best in particular environments.

Since the life of a coffee tree is 20-30 years, the decision farmers make about which variety to plant has long-term consequences. If a farmer makes an uninformed decision on variety, the cumulative loss can be huge. Comparatively, if a farmer makes the right decision, the cumulative gain can be significant. For example, a robusta farmer in Uganda who successfully cultivates a healthy Coffee Wilt Disease resistant (CWD-r) plant can earn 250% more than a farmer who plants a susceptible, unhealthy plant.

Most robusta farmers in particular do not have access to transparent information about available varieties and how they differ. Robusta farmers typically sell into lower-value markets where variety differentiation is nonexistent. In addition, robusta requires more than one variety and simultaneous flowering for successful pollination. Because of this, farmers must cultivate a mixt of complementary clones to enhance fruit production and quality. These mixtures, which typically comprise officially-released commercial varieties, are often distributed to farmers with minimal transparency about what clones are included in the mix and their unique properties. The lack of up-to-date variety information puts farmers at risk and perpetuates low yields around the globe.

This resource serves as an expansion of WCR’s popular Arabica Variety Catalog, which was launched in 2016 and profiles arabica varieties from around the world. At the time of its release, the arabica catalogue was a first-of-its-kind resource and the only global compendium of information about available coffee varieties for farmers, buyers, and roasters. The resource has been viewed over one million times since its launch and, as a living document, continues to support WCR’s goal to improve the availability and accessibility of improved planting material for farmers around the world.

Until recently, arabica held reign over most of the coffee market due to preferences for its beverage quality, but various factors, including the increasing demand and climate pressure for farmers, have led to expansions in the production of robusta.

“Since our founding over ten years ago, WCR has worked to empower farmers by making tools available to choose the right varieties for their farms and their markets—varieties that deliver high yield and better-tasting coffee in the long term,” said WCR’s chief executive officer Dr Jennifer “Vern” Long. “And, now that robusta comprises 40% of the coffee produced and marketed globally, we saw the need to support farmers by creating this tool.”

The robusta catalogue was generated through collaborative sourcing of data about varieties from breeders and other experts, including the Central Coffee Research Institute (CCRI), the Indonesian Coffee and Cocoa Research Institute (ICCRI), the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA), the National Coffee Research Institute of Uganda (NaCORI-Uganda), the Western Highlands Agroforestry Science Institute (WASI), and Nestlé’s Research Center. The varieties in the robusta catalogue were selected for inclusion because of their economic, historical, cultural, or genetic importance. Even so, significant gaps in data for many Robusta varieties remain. The genetic diversity of robusta coffee is also much larger than that of arabica, and it is only just beginning to be explored by breeders and the industry at large. The catalogue, therefore, does not aim to represent an exhaustive list of all coffee varieties in existence.

Alongside the detailed variety profiles, users can find a consolidated and peer-reviewed history of robusta as a species, which tracks it from its origins in central and western sub-Saharan Africa through its dispersal across Asia and Latin America to its cultivation today. In addition, the history provides a brief overview of the genetic diversity and conservation of robusta to provide readers the opportunity to better understand how well-differentiated the various populations of this species are.

The interactive catalogue website features the ability to filter on different variables, such as yield potential, country of release, and more. It also includes the ability to generate a unique, customisable PDF with the varieties of the user’s choice, and a new visualisation of the genetic groups of the included varieties. Both the arabica and robusta catalogues are shared via Creative Commons licenses that make them available for free distribution worldwide.

The robusta and arabica catalogues can be accessed free of cost at varieties.worldcoffeeresearch.org.

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Broadly, the upward trend has the support of the fundamentals, with the global coffee market in deficit in coffee year 2021/22 and this situation expected to be repeated in coffee year 2022/23 (see Production and Consumption). The impetus behind the rally from the last days of March 2023 to the beginning of the third week of April 2023 can be attributed to the reinforcement of the support of the fundamentals from several market-driving events and announcements (see Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee). However, the downturn of the I-CIP, seen since the beginning of the third week of April 2023, appears mainly due to the strengthening US dollar. From 23 March to 28 April 2023, the Brazilian real (R$) moved from a low of R$5.30 on 23 March to a peak of R$4.91 on 14 April, before weakening again to an average of R$5.03 between 15 and 28 April against the US dollar.

Average prices for all group indicators increased in April 2023, with the Robustas averaging an 8.7% gain at 115.70 US cents/lb. Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased by 4.3% and 3.2%, to 234.85 and 229.56 US cents/lb, respectively, in April 2023. Brazilian Naturals lead the way amongst Arabicas, climbing 4.4% and reaching an average of 195.26 US cents/lb. The International Coffee Exchange’s (ICE) New York market expanded 6.3%, whilst the London Futures market grew 9.1% to 187.30 and 105.43 US cents/lb, respectively.

Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential presented resilient growth, rising 84.3% to 5.30 US cents/lb. Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential also gained 3.6% from March to April 2023, averaging 39.60 US cents/lb in April, whilst Colombian Milds-Robustas grew 0.3% to 119.15 US cents/lb for the same period. Conversely, Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential lost 2.9%, averaging 34.30 US cents/lb, whilst Other Milds-Robustas also shrank by 1.7% to 113.86 US cents/lb. With the most moderate loss, Brazilian Naturals-Robustas dropped 1.2% to 79.56 US cents/lb.

Arbitrage, as measured in between the London and New York Futures markets, expanded by 2.9% to 81.88 US cents/lb in April 2023.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP is stabilising and reached 8.7% with a marginal increase of 0.6 percentage points between March and April 2023. Robustas presented the strongest volatility increase, averaging 7.7% for the month of April 2023, a 1.4 percentage point expansion. Echoing this increased volatility were the New York Futures and London markets, where 0.1 and 0.8 percentage points were gained, averaging 11.1% and 7.9%, respectively, for April 2023. Whilst volatility of the Other Milds grew 0.4 percentage points to 9.2%, the Colombian Milds also increased by 0.3 percentage points to 9.0%. Lastly, Brazilian Naturals saw an 0.5 percentage point increase in volatility from March to April 2023.

The New York certified stocks decreased 7.9% from the previous month, closing in at 0.74 million 60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.31 million 60-kg bags, representing an increase of 3.1%.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in March 2023 totalled 10.90 million bags, as compared with 12.06 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 9.6%. The downturn was spread across all coffee groups. As a result, the cumulative total exports of green beans for coffee year 2022/23 is decreasing at an accelerated rate, down 6.1%, as compared with the 5.2% fall recorded for the first five months of the current coffee year. The cumulative total for 2022/23 to March is 56.26 million bags, as compared with 59.92 million bags over the same period a year ago.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 17.1% in March 2023 to 2.11 million bags from 2.55 million bags in the same period last year. This is the sixth consecutive month of negative growth for green bean exports of Other Milds since the start of the new coffee year. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports fell by 18.2% in the first six months of coffee year 2022/23 to 8.86 million bags versus 10.83 million bags over the same period in 2021/22.

Green bean exports of Brazilian Naturals fell in March 2023, falling by 13.5% to 3.08 million bags. For the first six months of coffee year 2022/23, green bean exports of Brazilian Naturals amounted to 18.61 million bags, down 7.8% from 20.18 million bags over the same period a year ago. Changes to the fortunes of Brazilian Naturals are mainly changes in Brazil’s green bean exports, the biggest producer and exporter of Brazilian Naturals, which also fell in March 2023 (-14.8%) to 2.78 million bags from 3.27 million bags in March 2022.

Exports of Colombian Milds decreased by 17.4% to 0.96 million bags in March 2023 from 1.17 million bags in March 2022, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 19.2% in March 2023. This is the ninth consecutive month of negative growth for Colombian Milds and, as a result, the exports of this group of coffee for October 2022 to March 2023 were down 14.7%, at 5.63 million bags, as compared with 6.60 million bags in the first six months of coffee year 2021/22.

Green bean exports of Robustas amounted to 4.74 million bags in March 2023, as compared with 4.78 million bags in March 2022, down 0.8%. In the first six months of coffee year 2022/23, 23.17 million bags of Robustas were exported as compared with 22.31 million bags in the same period in 2021/22.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In March 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 17.3% to 4.13 million bags, driven by the three main origins of the region, Brazil, Colombia and Peru, which saw their combined exports fall by 17.9%. The two major origins of the region, Brazil and Colombia, saw their respective shipments of coffee decrease by 14.3% and 19.2% in March 2023, falling to 3.1 million and 0.92 million bags, ie, the fourth and ninth consecutive months of negative growth, respectively.

The off-season and smaller harvests in 2020/21 and 2021/22 have been put forward as explanations for Brazil’s falling exports by Cecafé, the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council, while in Colombia both an adverse weather-driven fall in supply and a 10% decrease in production in March 2023, continue to explain the decreasing exports.

Peru is continuing to see its exports fall at a significantly faster rate, plunging by 76.5% in March 2023. Again, erratic weather played a part in this downturn, in addition to social unrest in the main producing areas (Cajamarca, Junín and San Martín) which saw their roads blocked. However, the main culprit behind the magnitude of the fall in exports is mechanical; 4.60 million bags of all forms of coffee were exported in coffee year 2021/22, the second largest in volume on record, just behind the 4.69 million bags exported in coffee year 2011/12, increasing by 44.8% as compared with coffee year 2020/21. Moreover, for the first three months of the calendar year (January to March 2022), exports increased by 245.8% at 1.00 million bags, the largest Q1 shipment on record, and 57.4% higher than the next biggest, 0.64 million bags, recorded in 2012. Given these record breaking numbers the Q1 data for 2023 are, inevitably, suffering in comparison.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 5.0% to 1.12 million bags in March 2023 from 1.18 million bags in March 2022. For the first six months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 6.35 million bags as compared with 6.33 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, up 0.3%. Côte d’Ivoire and Kenya are the main drivers behind the fall in the region’s exports, with shipments of coffee decreasing by 41.4% to 0.12 million bags as compared with 0.21 million bags in March 2022, and by 17.7% to 58,340 bags from 70,849 bags in March 2022, respectively. However, Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda served as counterweights that tempered the severity of the region’s downturn, with their exports up 86.7%, 249.2% and 2.0%, respectively.

In March 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 15.4% to 1.75 million bags as compared with 2.07 million in March 2022. This latest month of negative growth is the fifth in the first six months of the current coffee year, with the only instance of positive growth seen in February 2023. As a result, for the first six months of the current coffee year, exports are down at 11.8%, totalling 5.78 million bags as compared with 6.56 million bags from October 2021 to March 2022. Of the top six origins, five saw their exports fall in March 2023, with Guatemala suffering the heaviest decline (-44.9%), while Honduras was the only major origin with positive growth (2.0%). For Honduras, the increase seen in March is the third consecutive month of expansion, following 11 straight months of decreases between February and December 2022.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania increased by 0.2% to 5.03 million bags in March 2023 and were up 2.5% to 24.05 million bags in the first six months of coffee year 2022/23. Indonesia is the main driver of the latest upturn, with exports increasing by 16.0% to 0.58 million bags from 0.50 million bags in March 2022, outweighing the 1.6% and 1.1% downturns of India and Vietnam, respectively.

Indonesia’s upturn in exports seemingly came in the face of evidence to the contrary; the ICO’s latest outlook for coffee year 2022/23 projected Indonesia’s production to be growing at a slower rate than its consumption, 1.1% versus 5.1%, thereby reducing the supply available for export. Moreover, earlier in the year, the Association of Indonesia Coffee Exporters and Industries projected a 20% fall in production due to excessive rain across the coffee growing regions, while severe rainfall was seen through much of the archipelago in the first four months of 2023. The double-digit expansion of exports in March is mainly explained by the strong on-off seasonality of Indonesia’s coffee exports, which is evident in both annual and monthly data (see Graph A). Thus, the 16.0% increase in March 2023 is more a reflection of March 2022 than a statement on the current status of Indonesia’s coffee industry or the world’s demand for its coffee.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 6.5% in March 2023 to 1.05 million bags from 1.13 million bags in March 2022. In the first six months of coffee year 2022/23, a total of 5.67 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 8.8% from the 6.22 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee was 10.1% (measured on a moving 12-month average) in March 2023, the same as it was in March 2022. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 0.32 million bags in March 2023.

Exports of roasted beans were up 5.9% in March 2023 to 66,393 bags, as compared with 62,689 bags in March 2022. The cumulative total for coffee year 2022/23 to March 2023 was 358,640 bags, as compared with 399,479 bags in same period a year ago.

Production and Consumption
The estimates and outlook of production and consumption for coffee years 2021/22 and 2022/23 remain the same. World coffee production decreased by 1.4% to 168.5 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, hampered by the off-biennial production and negative meteorological conditions in several key origins. However, it is expected to bounce back by 1.7% to 171.3 million bags in 2022/23. Increased global fertiliser costs and adverse weather conditions are expected to partially offset the positive impact of biennial production from Brazil, explaining the relatively low rate of growth in coffee year 2022/23. The impact of biennial production is anticipated to drive the outlook for Arabica, which is projected to increase by 4.6% to 98.6 million bags in coffee year 2022/23, following a 7.2% decrease in the previous coffee year.

Reflecting its cyclical output, Arabica’s share of the total coffee production is expected to increase to 57.5% from 55.9% in coffee year 2021/22. South America is and will remain the largest producer of coffee in the world, despite suffering from the largest drop in output for almost 20 years, which fell by 7.6% in coffee year 2021/22. The recovery in coffee year 2022/23, partly driven by biennial production, is expected to push the region’s output to 82.4 million bags, a rise of 6.2%.

World coffee consumption increased by 4.2% to 175.6 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, following a 0.6% rise the previous year. Release of the pent-up demand built up during the Covid-19 years and sharp global economic growth of 6.0% in 2021 explains the sharp bounce back in coffee consumption in coffee year 2021/22. Decelerating world economic growth rates for 2022 and 2023, coupled with the dramatic rise in the cost of living, will have an impact on the coffee consumption for coffee year 2022/23. It is expected to grow, but at a decelerating rate of 1.7% to 178.5 million bags. The global deceleration is expected to come from non-producing countries, with Europe’s coffee consumption predicted to suffer the largest decrease among all regions, with growth rates falling to 0.1% in coffee year 2022/23 from a 6.0% expansion in coffee year 2021/22.

As a result, the world coffee market is expected to run another year of deficit, a shortfall of 7.3 million bags.

The outlook is taken from the newest publication of the Statistics Section of the Secretariat of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Coffee Report and Outlook (CRO). The CRO offers an insight into the factors moving the global coffee industry in the most recent past and draws out the potential events that may drive the industry in the near future. The CRO can be downloaded from the ICO website: www.icocoffee.org. For further information, contact the Statistics Section at stats@ico.org.

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Black tea still leads in terms of global production volume, but green tea has seen a slight but gradual gain in share over the last 10 years. According to the London-based International Tea Committee (ITC), the share of green tea production has increased from about 30 percent to 33 percent. Estimates put the world’s total green tea production at 2.1 million metric tonnes (mmt) in 2021.

China drives green tea production, contributing over 1.8 mmt. This makes the Middle Kingdom the provider of over 85 percent of the world’s green tea. In relation to its own production, however, green tea comprises about 60 percent of its total annual production. Green tea holds the largest share in terms of China’s output, with black tea being the next closest at about 14 percent of annual China production. It is worth noting, however, that China’s classification system for teas distinguishes between green tea and flower tea. Because of this, all forms of jasmine green tea – from specialty jasmine green pearl teas to jasmine green tea fannings – are not counted towards the green tea totals but are designated as flower teas. Depending on interpretation, this can serve to under-report the actual amount of green tea produced.

Japan is the next best-known home of green tea production, contributing about 0.8 mmt of green tea per year. The majority of Japan’s green tea comes in two forms. Sencha accounts for a little over one half, and bancha makes up more than a third. Matcha (tencha) and gyokuro each contribute less than 4 percent of the total volume but their average value in USD per kg is more than double that of sencha.

Other well-known tea-producing countries, including India, Argentina, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Turkey, and Vietnam either do not parse out green tea production from black, or mainly focus on reporting green tea exports.

China leads in exports

As may be expected, China also dominates in green tea exports. China’s 2021 green tea exports totaled 0.31 MMT, or nearly 85 percent of China’s total exports. Value-wise, however, green tea exports represent roughly 60 percent of China’s exports. China’s average annual export rates reached USD $5.55/kg, with green tea averaging $4.44/kg compared to black tea at $10.25/kg. China’s main export partner has remained Morocco for several years now, as the country has relatively high per-capita tea consumption and a longstanding tradition of drinking green tea (eg Moroccan mint tea).

Vietnam appears to be one of the next largest green tea exporters, though nowhere close to China’s volume. In 2021, Vietnam exported 62,000 mt of green tea, or just shy of half of the nation’s total exports. Vietnam’s top tea export destinations include Pakistan, The Republic of China (ROC), and Russia. It is unclear as to the share of green tea exports among these countries, especially when Pakistan and Russia are known for purchasing significantly more black tea than green.

Japan, on the other hand, exported over 6,000 mt of predominantly green tea. As mentioned above, Japan’s production is largely divided between sencha and bancha. About one-third of Japan’s green tea exports went to the US.

Indonesia, Sri Lanka and India each exported between 5,500 and 3,000 mt of green tea. Indonesia’s major tea export partners include Malaysia, Russia, and the US. Sri Lanka’s top export destinations include Iraq, Turkey, and Russia. India’s three largest tea export countries include Russia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)

US imports of green tea grows

Of the world’s top three tea-importing countries (Pakistan, Russia, and the US), the US provides the clearest picture of green tea imports. Of Russia’s 135,000 mt of imported tea, at least 85 percent of it is black tea. Similarly, tea imports into the US in 2022 showed about 14 percent, or 16,618 mt was green tea. Of that total, nearly 7,000 mt originated from China. A further dissection of US green tea imports reveals that 1,800 mt was organic green tea, of which about 1,000 mt came from China.

Producing countries consume the most tea

Considering that the world’s top two producing countries (China and India) generally keep about 85 percent of their produced tea within their borders, these countries hold sway over global green tea consumption. China’s domestic sales of green tea reached 1.3 mmt. During that period, China only imported about 4,300 mt of green tea.

India’s green tea volumes also remained available for the domestic market. As with China, at least 85 percent of India’s total tea production volume didn’t leave the country. This proportion held true for green tea as well. About 15 percent of India’s green production was exported, leaving about 85 percent within its borders.

The US also held relatively steady in an 85/15 split of black-to-green tea consumption, with more emphasis placed on iced tea.

In relation to per capita consumption of tea, some of the major countries increased their consumption over the past ten years. Most notably was Morocco, a major green tea consumer, which increased an estimated 15 percent per head. China’s per capita also saw a significant rise from just shy of 1 kg per head to roughly 1.75 kg.

The outlook for green tea is positive

Compared to black tea, green tea consumption still appears modest but with positive signs for the future. The UK has seen declines in black tea consumption, while green tea has remained relatively steady. Green tea in the US also holds promise, as consumers are attracted to the reported health benefits of green tea.

The Japanese tea industry still sees potential for the further expansion of matcha exports, with matcha being viewed by international markets as a more premium and health-forward tea option. The nation has seen decreases in production of leaf tea and increases in powdered teas and teas used for RTD. The Japanese government has established initiatives to upgrade tea farms, modernize tea harvesting and processing, and promote Japanese teas in the US, Europe, and Asia Pacific.

China’s expansion of new tea fields also indicates a continued trend toward steady production of green teas. China’s internal estimates classify about one third of the nation’s current tea plants as over 30 years old and recommend removing or replacing these less-productive bushes. A gradual phasing out of old fields and the advent of new fields coming online will help keep China on top as a green tea powerhouse.

• Jason Walker is marketing director of Firsd Tea North America. Prior to his work with Firsd Tea, Walker served in a variety of roles in tea and beverage business capacities. His experience includes business services for small tea companies, a top-ranked online destination for tea consumer education and co-founding a coffee business. His insights draw upon his diverse range of experience in sales, operations and management in the tea world. He may be reached at: jason.walker@firsdtea.com.

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The Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased by 8.9% and 11.1%, to 238.39 and 229.73 US cents/lb, respectively, in February 2023. However, the Brazilian Naturals and the Robustas gained 14.8% and 8.3%, reaching an average of 195.18 and 103.93 US cents/lb. The London Futures market grew 9.8% whilst ICE’s New York market shrank by 13.2%. The Colombian Milds-Other Milds and Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differentials are leading the way, shrinking 28.8% and 11.6% to 8.66 and 43.21 US cents/lb, respectively. The Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential also lost 5.9%, averaging 34.55 US cents/lb for the month of February 2023.

Conversely, the Colombian Milds-Robustas and Other Milds-Robustas differentials grew by 9.4% and 13.6%, closing the month at 134.46 and 125.80 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals-Robustas differential presented the strongest growth of 23.2% from January 2023 to February 2023, reaching 91.25 US cents/lb.

The arbitrage, as measured between the New York and London Futures market expanded 17.2%, closing in at 86.67 US cents/lb in February 2023, from 73.97 US cents/lb in January 2023.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP increased 0.1 percentage point between January 2023 and February 2023, reaching 8.7%. Robustas and the London Futures market were the least volatile amongst all group indicators, at 6.2% and 7.8%, respectively, in February 2023. The Brazilian Naturals’ volatility was the highest amongst the group indicators, averaging 12.1%, a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month. Whilst the volatility of the Colombian Milds stayed constant at 9.2%, the Other Milds, contracted 0.1 percentage point to 8.8%. The variation of the New York Futures market’s volatility increased by 0.3 percentage point, averaging 12.6% for the month of February 2023.

The New York certified stocks decreased by 5.1% from the previous month, closing in at 0.86 million 60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.19 million 60-kg bags, representing an increase of 13.8%.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in January 2023 totalled 8.69 million bags, as compared with 10.23 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 15.0%. The downturn was spread across all coffee groups. As a result, the cumulative total exports of green beans for coffee year 2022/23 is decreasing at an accelerated rate, down 5.4%, as compared with 1.8% decrease for the first three months of the current coffee year. The cumulative total for 2022/23 to January is 35.86 million bags as compared with 37.9 million bags over the same period a year ago.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 17.7% in January 2023 to 1.59 million bags from 1.93 million bags in the same period last year. This is the fourth consecutive month of negative growth for green bean exports of the Other Milds since the start of the current coffee year. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports fell by 18.1% in the first four months of coffee year 2022/23 to 5.11 million bags from 6.24 million bags over the same period in coffee year 2021/22. The region’s latest decline was due to a confluence of downturns in El Salvador (-63.4%), Guatemala (-40.5%) and Nicaragua (-23.2%) against upturns in Honduras (+2.8%) and Mexico (+106.7%), with the negative growth rates of the former group of origins overwhelming the gains of the latter.

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals fell in January 2023, falling by 17.2% to 2.78 million bags. For the first four months of coffee year 2022/23, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals amounted to 13.1 million bags, down 0.1% from 13.11 million bags over the same period a year ago. Not surprisingly, the shifting fortunes of the Brazilian Naturals reflected the changes in Brazil’s green bean exports, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, which also fell in January 2023 (down 18.1%) to 2.52 million bags from 3.08 million bags in January 2022.

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 20.9% to 0.87 million bags in January 2023 from 1.1 million bags in January 2022, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 19.4% in January 2023. As a result of the sharp downturn, exports of the Colombian Milds from October 2022 to January 2023 were down by 15.9%, at 3.68 million bags, as compared with 4.37 million bags in the first four months of coffee year 2021/22.

Green bean exports of the Robustas amounted to 3.45 million bags in January 2023, as compared with 3.84 million bags in January 2022, down 10.1%, bookending the growth rates of the first four months of the current coffee year, which had opened with a 6.8% downturn, followed by two consecutive months of positive growth. As a result, the shipments in the first four months of coffee year 2022/23 were down 1.4% to 13.97 million bags from 14.18 million bags in the same period in coffee year 2021/22.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In January 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 19.9% to 3.93 million bags, driven by the three main origins of the region, Brazil, Colombia and Peru, which saw their combined exports fall by 20.9%. The two major origins of the region, Brazil and Colombia, saw their respective shipments of coffee decrease by 16.0% and 18.8% in January 2023, falling to 2.86 million bags and 0.85 million bags, respectively, from 3.4 million bags and 1.05 million bags in January 2022. Peru is continuing to see its exports fall by a significantly greater rate, plunging by 63.9% in January 2023, which follows 41.5% downturns in November and December 2022. For Colombia, the sharp downturns continue to be linked to local production conditions, which have been hampered by persistent bad weather linked to the La Niña phenomenon.

In January 2023, Colombia’s production recorded zero growth, following four consecutive months of negative growth, leading the total coffee output for the twelve months to January 2023 to decrease by 10% to 11.08 million bags from 12.36 million bags in the same period a year ago. In Peru, the negative impact of the weather on the origin’s exports has already been addressed in recent issues of the CMR, with social unrest in the country being an additional causal component introduced in the January 2023 issue. However, the size of the plunge in export volume in January 2023 is technical and reflects the anomalous export volume observed in January 2022, in which 435,961 bags of coffee were shipped, the largest export volume for the month of January on record and 53% greater than the second-largest. The average export volume over the past six years, 2016–2021, is 195,565 bags; measured against this, the January 2023 exports are down 19.5%, which is more in line with the region and Brazil and Colombia’s performances.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania decreased by 17.2% to 3.45 million bags in January 2023 and were down 3.3% to 14.42 million bags in the first four months of coffee year 2022/23. The region’s top three origins are the main drivers for the latest downturn, with the exports of Vietnam down 12.7% to 2.45 million bags from 2.8 million bags in January 2022. Likewise, India and Indonesia’s exports declined by 39.7% to 0.34 million bags from 0.56 million bags and 18.8% to 0.58 million bags from 0.72 million bags in January 2022, respectively.

The New Year and Lunar New Year holidays coincided in January 2023, a rare event, leading to a shortfall of business days, thus explaining the decrease in exports from Indonesia and Vietnam.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa increased by 19.5% to 1.11 million bags in January 2023 from 0.93 million bags in January 2022. For the first four months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 4.22 million bags as compared with 4.15 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, up 1.4%. Uganda is the main driver behind the jump in the region’s exports, with coffee shipments from the region’s largest producer and exporter increasing by 22.9% to 0.49 million bags, as compared with 0.4 million bags in January 2022. Significantly, it ended 12 consecutive months of decreasing exports, which had led the origin’s cumulative total exports over the past year (January–December 2022) to fall to 5.63 million bags as compared with 6.77 million bags between January and December 2021, down 16.9% or 1.14 million bags.

Drought in most of the coffee growing regions has led to a lower and shorter main harvest season in central and eastern parts of Uganda and hence lower output; however, exports are up in January 2023 because of a stocks drawdown on the back of rising prices for Robustas which in turn were responding to the reduced global supply, especially from Indonesia and Vietnam. Côte d’Ivoire and Tanzania are two other origins of note for January 2023, with their exports up 105.8% and 17.8%, respectively.

In January 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 5.0% to 1.21 million bags as compared with 1.27 million in January 2022. For the first four months of the current coffee year, exports are also down 11.4%, totalling 2.75 million bags as compared with 3.1 million bags in October–January 2021/22. As mentioned previously, the region’s latest decline, the fourth in a row since the start of coffee year 2022/23, was due to a confluence of downturns in El Salvador (-58.3%), Guatemala (-40.9%) and Nicaragua (-22.5%) against upturns in Honduras (+2.8%) and Mexico (+61.4%), with the negative growth of the former group overwhelming the gains of the latter. The 2.8% increase for Honduras is the first uptick since January 2022, and reflects the fact that the origin finds itself deep in its harvesting season with a build-up of sufficient supply to meet its contractual obligations.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 3.0% in January 2023 to 0.95 million bags from 0.98 million bags in January 2022. In the first four months of coffee year 2022/23, a total of 3.75 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 11.2% from the 4.22 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee was 10.1% (measured on a moving 12-month average) in January 2023, as in January 2022. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee and shipped 0.34 million bags in January 2023.

Exports of roasted beans were down 9.2% in January 2023 to 61,683 bags, as compared with 67,918 bags in January 2022. The cumulative total for coffee year 2022/23 to January 2023 was 278,977 bags, as compared with 289,578 bags in the same period a year ago.

Production and Consumption
The latest provisional estimate for total production in coffee year 2021/22 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags, a 2.1% decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags in the previous coffee year.
World coffee consumption is projected to grow by 3.3% to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2021/22 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020/21. In 2021/22, consumption is estimated to exceed production by 3.1 million bags.

The ICO will be publishing shortly new consolidated revised values for production and consumption for 2021/22.

For the full report, visit: icocoffee.org.

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The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) gained 0.3% from November to December 2022, averaging 157.19 US cents/lb for the latter, whilst posting a median value of 157.73 US cents/lb. In December 2022, the I-CIP fluctuated between 151.95 and 162.31 US cents/lb.

Average prices for all group indicators remained stable, with a slight increase in December 2022. The Colombian Milds, Brazilian Naturals and Robustas increased by 0.4%, 1.5% and 1.3%, respectively, month on month in December 2022. The group indicators respectively averaged 224.12, 169.00 and 93.76 US cents/lb in December. The Other Milds fell by 1.7% to 210.24 US cents/lb. Stability in the market is in part due to the average of the 2nd and 3rd positions of the ICE New York and London futures market remaining stable.

The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential sprung back up 48.2% to 13.88 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals and Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals both declined by 2.8% and 12.8% to 55.12 and 41.24 US cents/lb in December 2022, respectively. The Colombian Milds Robustas differential remained stable, losing only 0.2 percentage points and reaching 130.36 US cents/lb for the last month of 2022. Falling 3.9% over the course of the month was the Other Milds-Robustas differential, retracting 3.9%, to 116.48 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals-Robustas differential gained 1.8% from November to December 2022, reaching 75.24 US cents/lb. The arbitrage between the New York and London Futures gained 0.2%, closing in at 82.26 US cents/lb in December 2022, up from 82.13 US cents/lb in November 2022.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP decreased 0.2 percentage points between November and December 2022, reaching 9.1%. Robustas and the London futures market were the least volatile amongst all group indicators, at 5.3% and 4.8%, respectively, in December 2022. The Brazilian Naturals’ volatility was the highest amongst the group indicators, averaging 12.1%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month. The variation in volatility of the Colombian Milds and Other Milds for November to December 2022 is 0.6 to 11.6% and 0.1 to 9.7%, respectively. The New York futures market remained the most volatile, averaging 12.5% for the month of December 2022.

The New York certified stocks increased by 46.6% from the previous month, closing in at 0.87 million 60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.08 million 60-kg bags, representing a decrease of 25.5%.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in November 2022 totalled 9.21 million bags, as compared with 8.31 million bags in the same month of the previous year, up 10.8%. The positive growth was driven by the Brazilian Naturals and Robustas, which saw their exports increase by double digits, while the Colombian and Other Milds suffered from double-digit decreases. As a result, the cumulative total exports of green beans for coffee year 2022/23 bounced back into black, up 3.5% as compared with the 3.5% decrease for the first month of the current coffee year. The cumulative total for 2022/23 to November is 17.63 million bags as compared with 17.03 million bags over the same period a year ago.

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals bounced back sharply in November 2022, rocketing up by 34.5% to 3.67 million bags, following a lackluster 0.5% increase in October 2022 as compared with the same periods in the previous coffee year. For the first two months of coffee year 2022/23, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals amounted to 7.11 million bags, up 15.6% from 6.15 million bags over the same period a year ago. Not surprisingly, the shifting fortunes of the Brazilian Naturals reflected the changes in Brazil’s green bean exports, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, which also bounced back in November 2022 (up 32%) as compared with October 2022 (up 1.9%).

Green bean exports of Robustas amounted to 3.58 million bags in November 2022, as compared with 3.17 million bags in November 2021, up 12.9%, a sharp turnaround from the 5.5% decrease in October 2022. This meant that the shipments in the first two months of coffee year 2022/23 were up 4% to 6.38 million bags versus 6.13 million bags in the same period in coffee year 2021/22

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 15.1% in November 2022 to 1.1 million bags from 1.29 million bags in the same period last year. This is the second consecutive month of negative growth for green bean exports of the Other Milds since the start of the new coffee year, having already fallen by 7.1% in October 2022. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports fell by 11% in the first two months of coffee year 2022/23 to 2.36 million bags from 2.65 million bags over the same period in coffee year 2021/22.

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 22.8% to 0.86 million bags in November 2022 from 1.12 million bags in November 2021, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this coffee group, whose green bean exports were down 26.7% in November 2022. As a result of the sharp downturn, exports of the Colombian Milds from October to November 2022 were down by 15.2%, at 1.78 million bags, as compared with 2.1 million bags in the first two months of coffee year 2021/22.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In November 2022, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee increased by 4.7% to 4.96 million bags. There were wide variations in the performances of November 2022 exports among the major origins of the region, with Brazil (up 25.4%) being the best performing, and Peru (down 41.5%) and Colombia (down 24.2%) the worst performing. Improved shipping conditions have been reported as the reason behind the strong increase in Brazil’s exports, but for Peru and Colombia the sharp downturns are linked to local production conditions. Persistent bad weather linked to the La Niña phenomenon has caused Colombia’s November 2022 coffee output to drop by 6%, the country’s third consecutive month of negative growth, with a consequent impact on exports. In Peru, irregular weather patterns have led to prolonged and intermittent rains, which impacted the regular development of cherries and flowers, leading to coffee trees having both cherries and flowers concurrently and thus spreading out the harvesting period. Moreover, intermittent rains also hampered the drying process, having a negative impact on the quality of dried beans. These all affected the supply of coffee beans and contributed to November 2022 having the lowest volume of exports since 2007, when only 244,325 bags were shipped from Peru.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania increased by 19% to 3.78 million bags in November 2022 and were up 3.6% to 6.57 million bags in the first two months of coffee year 2022/23. The region’s sharp increase is explained by Vietnam (up 19.8%) and Indonesia (up 48.7%), the largest and the second-largest producers and exporters of coffee from Asia and Oceania, shipping 2.2 million bags and 0.89 million bags, respectively. However, the region’s third-largest exporter, India, saw its exports decrease in November 2022, down 0.8% to 0.58 million bags from 0.59 million bags in November 2021.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa increased by 6.8% to 1.09 million bags in November 2022 from 1.02 million bags in November 2021. For the first two months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 2.16 million bags as compared with 2.15 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. In November 2022, Uganda’s exports fell for the 11th consecutive month, decreasing by 14.8% to 0.45 million bags from 0.52 million bags in November 2022. Uganda’s cumulative total exports over the past 11 months (January–November 2022) amount to 5.21 million bags as compared with 6.23 million bags over the same period a year ago (January–November 2021), down 16.4% or 1.02 million bags. Drought in most of the coffee growing regions, leading to a lower and shorter main harvest season in central and eastern parts of Uganda and hence lower output, is continuing to hamper Ugandan coffee exports. Despite Uganda’s large negative push downwards on Africa’s coffee exports in November 2022, positive pulls upwards by Côte d’Ivoire (up 111.1%) and Ethiopia (up 29.2%), the region’s third- and second-largest producers and exporters, supported by Kenya (up 16.6%) and Rwanda (up 63.6%), were sufficiently robust to ensure that the region’s exports grew in November 2022, despite the downturn in Uganda’s exports.

In November 2022, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 7.1% to 0.41 million bags as compared with 0.45 million in November 2021. For the first two months of the current coffee year, exports are down 13.3%, totalling 0.89 million bags as compared with 1.02 million bags in October–November 2021/22. The region’s decline in November was due to Honduras, down 50%, which is struggling with leaf-rust, or roya, which has hit the industry’s harvests.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 3.2% in November 2022 to 0.97 million bags from 1.0 million bags in November 2021. In the first two months of coffee year 2022/23, a total of 1.81 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 12.9% from the 2.07 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee was 9.0% (measured on a moving 12-month average) in November 2022, down from 9.1% in November 2021. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 0.27 million bags in November 2022, followed by India with 0.19 million bags and Indonesia with 0.15 million bags exported over the same period.

Exports of roasted beans were down 7.5% in November 2022 to 68,865 bags, as compared with 74,411 bags in November 2021. The cumulative total for coffee year 2022/23 to November 2022 was 130,953 bags, as compared with 149,108 bags in same period a year ago.

Production and Consumption
The latest provisional estimate for total production in coffee year 2021/22 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags, a 2.1% decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags in the previous coffee year.

World coffee consumption is projected to grow by 3.3% to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2021/22 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020/21. In 2021/22, consumption is estimated to exceed production by 3.1 million bags.

For the full report, visit: ico.org.

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Average prices for all group indicators decreased in November 2022. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds, decreased by 14.8% and 10.9%, respectively, month on month in November. The former averaged 223.22 US cents/lb in November 2022, whilst the latter averaged 213.85 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals fell by 13.4% to 166.54 US cents/lb. The Robustas fell below the 100 US cents/lb mark, averaging 92.59 US cents/lb for the month of November, a 10.1% decline from the previous month. The downturns are in part due to the average 2nd and 3rd positions of the ICE New York futures market, which lost 14.0% in November 2022 over October 2022. The average of the 2nd and 3rd positions of the ICE Futures Europe for the Robustas also shrank by 10.3%. The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential suffered a month-on-month loss of 57.2%, closing in at 9.37 US cents/lb for November 2022.

The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals and Colombian Milds-Robustas differentials declined by 18.7% and 17.8% to 56.68 and 130.63 US cents/lb in November 2022, respectively. Falling the least was the Other Milds Brazilian Naturals differential, declining by only 1.0%, to 47.31 US cents/lb. The Other Milds Robustas differential lost 11.5% from October to November 2022 reaching 121.26 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals-Robusta differential retracted 17.2% to 73.95 US cents/lb for the aforementioned period.

The arbitrage between the New York and London Futures markets shrunk by 17.5%, falling to 82.13 US Cents/lb in November 2022 from 99.56 US cents/lb in October 2022 precipitated by the faster rate of price decline of Arabica compared with Robusta.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP increased 2.2 percentage points between October and November 2022, reaching 9.3%. Robustas and the London futures market were the least volatile amongst all group indicators, at 7.2% and 7.1%, respectively, in November 2022. The Brazilian Naturals’ volatility was the highest amongst the group indicators, averaging 11.9%, a 2.3 percentage point increase from the previous month. The variation in volatility of the Colombian Milds and Other Milds for October to November 2022 is 3.6 to 11.0% and 2.0 to 9.6%, respectively. The New York futures market remained the most volatile, posting an increase of 2.7 percentage points, averaging 12.5% for the month of November 2022.

The New York certified stocks increased by 45.3% from the previous month, closing in at 0.59 million bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.45 million bags, representing a decrease of 4.6%.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global exports of green beans in October 2022 totalled 8.5 million bags, compared with 8.72 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 2.5%. The downturn was spread across most of the coffee groups, with the Brazilian Naturals alone starting the new coffee year on a positive footing with an uptick of 0.5%, the third consecutive months of positive growth, exporting 3.44 million bags of green beans.

The positive start to the new coffee year made by the Brazilian Naturals was driven by Brazil, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, with a 1.9% increase in the exports of green beans, outweighing the downturns of the other major origins of the Brazilian Naturals group – Ethiopia (-10.9%), Uganda (-6.0%) and Vietnam (-19.5%).

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 4.1% to 0.94 million bags in October 2022 from 0.98 million bags in October 2021, driven by the contractions in Colombia and Tanzania whose exports of green beans were down 6.0% and 2.3%, respectively. Within this coffee group, Kenya alone started the new coffee year on a bright note, exporting an additional 46.2% of green beans in October 2022 as compared with October 2021. The decline in October 2022 is the fourth in a row for Colombia, and another month in which production is at fault for the decreasing exports – in October 2022 Colombia’s coffee output fell by 12%. The Colombian Coffee Growers Federation (FNC) attributed the decline in production to excess rains due to the La Niña event, which translated into excess water, less sunlight, and fewer blooms in coffee plantations.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 4.3% in October 2022 to 1.3 million bags from 1.36 million bags in the same period last year. Guatemala (-28.0%), Honduras (-49.2%) and Peru (-8.4%) were behind this fall. In Honduras, the coffee industry continues to struggle with leaf rust, which is affecting production, while Guatemala’s output is being hampered due to climatic reasons and the availability of labour, all of which are having a knock-on effect on the countries’ exports.

Of the four coffee groups, the Robustas have recorded the worst performance in the new coffee year 2022/23, with exports falling by 4.8% to 2.82 million bags from 2.96 million bags. Except for India and Indonesia, all major origins within the Robustas group saw their exports of green beans fall in October 2022 – Uganda (-6.0%) and Vietnam (-19.5%). Uganda is still facing drought in most of its coffee-growing regions, which has led and is continuing to lead to lower outputs and, subsequently, lower exports.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In October 2022, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased marginally by 0.2% to 4.99 million bags. The marginality of the growth rate was largely the result of increases in the exports of Brazil (1.1%) and Ecuador (48.3%), edged by the decreases in exports of Colombia (-2.3%) and Peru (-9.4%).

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania totalled 3.17 million bags in October 2022, 10,000 bags greater than in October 2021. The region’s miniscule growth rate, however, belies the strong growth rates amongst the major origins; India and Indonesia made gains of 15.1% to 0.54 million bags and 34.5% to 1.12 million bags, respectively, while Vietnam suffered a 19.5% fall to 1.37 million bags.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 2.4% to 1.1 million bags in October 2022 from 1.13 million bags in October 2021. Ethiopia and Uganda were the two main origins behind the region’s downturn in exports in October 2022, with the respective growth rates of shipped coffee at -10.9% and -6.0%. The fact that Africa’s decrease of exports was softer than as suggested by the growth rates of the region’s top two biggest exporters is down to the counterweights of Burundi (316.7%), Côte d’Ivoire (83.2%) and Kenya (46.3%). However, the greater-than-normal growth rates of the three origins do not reflect fundamental changes to the respective domestic coffee industries but are technical anomalies due to large negative growth rates in October 2021. Burundi’s exports of all forms of coffee were down 66.5% and Côte d’Ivoire and Kenya by 79.1% and 54.1%, respectively.

In October 2022, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 14.6% to 0.49 million bags as compared with 0.57 million in October 2021. Of the 12 origins in the region only the Dominican Republic (10.5%), Mexico (1.1%) Nicaragua (24.6%) and Trinidad & Tobago (259.2%) saw exports increase in October 2022. Honduras exports fell by 49.2% in October 2022, with the volume of all forms of coffee shipped decreasing to 40,842 bags as compared with 80,328 bags. The origin continues to suffer from the impact of leaf-rust which affected the output of coffee year 2021/22 and is now having an adverse effect in the supply available for export. Of the region’s major origins (million bags and over), Costa Rica suffered the steepest fall, with its exports falling by 68.9% in October 2022 to 9,216 bags, as compared with 13,052 bags in the same period a year ago. The volume shipped in October 2022 is the lowest since September 1976, when 7,093 bags were exported. Costa Rica’s coffee institute, ICAFE, cites lower-than-expected production in coffee year 2021/22 as the reason for the drop in exports.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 10.9% in October 2022 to 1.19 million bags from 1.07 million bags in October 2021. The share of soluble coffee in the total exports of all forms of coffee was 9.5% (measured on a moving 12-month average) in October 2022 as compared with 8.9% in October 2021. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, and the country shipped 291,345 bags in October 2022, down 6.2% from 310,731 bags in October 2021. The second and third placed origins, India and Indonesia, however started the new coffee year at a gallop, with their soluble coffee exports up 25.0% and 33.7%, at 180,000 bags and 397,805 bags, respectively, in October 2022.

Exports of roasted beans decreased by 18.0% in October 2022 to 61,226 bags from 74,697 bags in October 2021.

Production and Consumption
The latest provisional outlook for total production in coffee year 2022/23 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags, a 2.1% decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags in the previous coffee year.

World coffee consumption is projected to grow by 3.3% to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2022/23 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020/21. In 2022/23, consumption is expected to exceed production by 3.1 million bags.

For the full report, visit: ico.org.

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The I-CIP lost 10.6% from September to October 2022, averaging 178.54 US cents/lb for the latter, whilst posting a median value of 177.22 US cents/lb. In October 2022, the I-CIP fluctuated in between 159.30 and 194.92 US cents/lb.

Average prices for all groups indicators decreased in October 2022. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds, decreased by 10.9% and 10.2%, respectively, month-on-month in October. The former averaged 261.95 US cents/lb in October 2022, whilst the latter averaged 240.08 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals declined the most within all four groups, falling 12.4% to 192.27 US cents/lb. The Robustas averaged 103.01 US cents/lb for the month of October, a 7.5% decline from the previous month. The downturns are in part due to the average second and third positions of the ICE New York futures market, which lost 12.1% in October 2022 versus September 2022. The average of the second and third positions of the ICE Futures Europe for the Robustas also shrank by 8.3%.

The Colombian Milds-Other Milds and the Brazilian Naturals-Robusta differential both took the hardest hit from September to October 2022, retracting 17.8% and 17.5%. The differential for the aforementioned period shrank from 26.60 to 21.87 US cents/lb and 108.23 to 89.25 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential declined by 6.5% to 69.68 US cents/lb in October 2022. The Colombian Milds-Robustas differential shrank by 13.0% to 158.94 US cents/lb. The strongest differential amongst all groups is the Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential, declining only 0.2%, to 47.82 US cents/lb. Lastly, the Other Milds-Robustas differential lost 12.2% from September to October 2022.

The average monthly differential stood at 137.07 US cents/lb, down from 156.13 in September 2022. The arbitrage between the New York and London Futures markets shrank by 15.4%, falling to 99.56 US Cents/lb in October 2022 from 117.74 US cents/lb in September 2022 as the price decline was more marked for Arabica than Robusta, marking a reversal of the previous trend.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP decreased 1.2 percentage points between September and October 2022, reaching a low of 7.1%. Robustas and the London futures market presented the lowest volatility amongst all group indicators, at 5.8% and 5.7%, respectively, in October 2022. The Brazilian Naturals volatility was the highest amongst the group indicators, averaging 9.6%, a 1.3 percentage point decrease from the previous month. The variation in volatility of the Colombian Milds and Other Milds for September to October 2022 is -0.6 to 7.4% and -1.0 to 7.6%, respectively. The New York Futures market remained the most volatile, albeit posting a decrease of 1.4 percentage points, averaging 9.8% for the month of October 2022.

The New York certified stocks decreased 9.3% from the previous month, closing in at 0.41 million bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.52 million bags, representing a decrease of 4.3%.

Export by Coffee Groups
Global exports of green beans were down 1.1% in coffee year 2021/22, totalling 116.07 million bags from 117.32 million bags in coffee year 2020/21. This marks the third largest annual exports in volume on record, with the biggest ever exports having been seen in coffee year 2018/19 when 121.32 million bags of green beans were shipped. Fundamentally, the decrease in green bean exports reflects reduced world coffee production, which is estimated to be down 2.1% to 167.17 million bags for coffee year 2021/22, as compared with an estimated 170.83 million bags in coffee year 2020/21.

The performances of the four groupings were varied in coffee year 2021/22, with the Brazilian Naturals and Colombian Milds down and the Other Milds and Robustas up. The exports of the Brazilian Naturals were down by 4.3% to 37.83 million bags in coffee year 2021/22 from 39.54 million bags in coffee year 2020/21. The downturn was driven by Brazil, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, with its total green bean exports decreasing by 12.5% in coffee year 2021/22. An estimated smaller crop harvested during its Arabica ‘off season’ and issues with containers and shipping reported earlier in the coffee year are, in turn, the main reasons behind Brazil’s poor performance.

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 7.1% in coffee year 2021/22, falling to 12.14 million bags from 2022 from 13.07 million bags in the previous coffee year. This is the lowest volume of exports since 2015, when total shipments of green beans totalled 12.78 million bags. The main origin contributing to the overall drop for the group can be traced to Colombia, the biggest producer and exporter of the Colombian Milds, with the country’s exports falling to 10.84 million bags, the lowest level since 2014. The fall in Colombia’s exports is linked to unfavourable weather conditions, reducing the available coffee supply in the country, with the total output estimated to be down 13% in coffee year 2021/22 to 11.68 million bags.

Shipments of the Other Milds increased by 1.3% in coffee year 2021/22, rising to 23.9 million bags from 23.59 million bags in the previous coffee year. The small uptick in the exports of the Other Milds was mainly the result of a confluence of struggles between Honduras and Guatemala, the first and third largest exporters of the Other Milds, and Peru and Nicaragua, the second and fourth largest exporters of the Other Milds which both recorded a stellar performance.

In Honduras, the coffee industry has been struggling with leaf-rust that hit the industry’s harvests, while Guatemala has been dealing with impact of a lower production, due primarily to climatic reasons and availability of labour, which lowered the exports by 7.6% and 20.0%, respectively, to 3.41 million bags and 4.7 million bags. For Nicaragua, coffee year 2021/22 has been a record year, as it shipped 2.87 million bags of green beans, the highest level on record, while for Peru total exports of green beans were 4.58 million bags, the second highest on record, just behind the 4.69 million bags shipped in coffee year 2011/12.

Exports of the Robustas totalled 42.2 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, up 2.6% as compared with 41.12 million bags in coffee year 2020/21. Vietnam and India were the two main positive highlights for coffee year 2021/22 for the Robustas, with the respective exports of green beans increasing by 15.1% and 26.1% to 26.78 million bags and 5.01 million bags. Burundi and Uganda were the two main negative highlights, with their respective exports of green beans decreasing by 62.1% and 10.0% to 134,000 bags and 5.85 million bags.

Export by Regions
In October 2021 to September 2022, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 7.1% to 55.31 million bags. Brazil is the reason for the drop in exports, with shipments from the country declining by 11.4% to 38.12 million bags. This is the first time since 2017 that Brazil’s annual exports of all forms of coffee have fallen below the 40 million bags mark. As explained earlier in this report, a smaller crop harvested during its Arabica “off-season” and problems with containers and shipping explain the large drop in exports in Brazil.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania increased by 12.8% to 43.86 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. Vietnam’s exports increased by 14.8% to 28.19 million bags from 24.56 million bags in coffee year 2020/21, which made the region’s biggest producer and exporter also the single largest absolute contributor to Asia & Oceania’s strong gains in exports in coffee year 2021/22. India’s exports of all forms of coffee jumped 21.7% in coffee year 2021/22, rising to 7.24 million bags from 5.95 million bags in coffee year 2020/21. Indonesia, the third largest producer and exporter of the region, saw its exports of all forms of coffee increase marginally to 6.92 million bags in coffee year 2021/22 from 6.82 million bags in the previous coffee year.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 5.1% to 13.73 million bags in coffee year 2021/22 from 14.48 million bags in the previous coffee year. As explained earlier within this Report, Burundi and Uganda were the two main contributors to the region’s downturn. Uganda’s decrease in exports is explained by the impact of drought in most of the coffee growing regions, which led to a shorter main harvest season in central and eastern parts of Uganda, and hence lower output and exports. Ethiopia, the second largest producer and exporter of the region, saw its exports of all forms of coffee increase marginally to 4.02 million bags in coffee year 2021/22 from 3.98 million bags in the previous coffee year.

In October 2021 to September 2022, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 3.3% to 16.09 million bags as compared with 16.63 million in coffee year 2020/21. Honduras was the single largest contributor to the region’s downturn, with the country’s exports of all forms of coffee down 20.0%, a loss of 1.17 million bags versus the volume shipped in coffee year 2020/21. Costa Rica and Guatemala were the next two biggest contributors, with their absolute decreases recorded at 50,576 bags and 280,445 bags, respectively.

Export by Forms of Coffee
Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 6.1% in coffee year 2021/22 to 12.1 million bags from 11.4 million bags in coffee year 2020/21. The share of soluble coffee of the total exports of all forms of coffee was 9.4% for the year, the highest on record. Brazil was the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 3.89 million bags, followed by India with 2.22 million bags, with Indonesia in third place at 1.66 million bags exported in coffee year 2021/22.

Exports of roasted beans increased by 5.0% in coffee year 2021/22 to 0.82 million bags.

Production and Consumption
The estimated outlook for total production in coffee year 2021/22 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags, a 2.1% decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags in the previous coffee year.

World coffee consumption was projected to grow by 3.3% to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2021/22 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020/21. In 2021/22, consumption was expected to exceed production by 3.1 million bags.

For the full report, visit: ico.org.

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The study, titled Fairtrade certification and producer resilience in times of crises and conducted by Scio Network and Athena Infonomics, examined the experiences of Fairtrade and non-Fairtrade coffee, banana and flower producers in Indonesia, Peru, and Kenya, finding that households belonging to Fairtrade-certified producer organisations were 12% less likely to report “a high or very high impact” from COVID-19, as compared to non-Fairtrade households.

“Our research shows that Fairtrade certification increased the social well-being of households by up to 20%, as opposed to no or alternative certification,” said Manuela Günther, lead on monitoring and impact evaluation at Scio Network and the study’s research manager. “Households related to Fairtrade certified producer organisations also had a higher economic resilience, which helped them to better weather the impact of COVID-19 and will contribute to greater resilience in the face of future crises as well.

In preparing the study, the researchers developed a resilience index based on the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), which includes four criteria, covering social wellbeing, economic resilience, good governance, and environmental integrity. Households from Fairtrade certified producers scored 9% higher on the overall index than non-certified counterparts (64% compared to 55%). On the dimension of social wellbeing – which includes elements such as food and nutrition security and children’s school attendance – Fairtrade certified producers scored 18% higher. Economic resilience – which includes financial literacy, bookkeeping, insurance, and savings – received a score of 6% higher. Good governance and environmental integrity scores, on the other hand, were more similar between Fairtrade and non-Fairtrade households.

“Although good governance and environmental integrity are very important in their own right, during the pandemic we found that aspects of social wellbeing, such as income diversification and food and nutrition security, and economic resilience, meaning access to credit for producer organisations and savings among households, were associated with a lower impact from COVID-19,” noted Bilal Afroz, senior consultant at Athena Infonomics and co-author of the report.

“Our study is one of the first to examine the key elements that empowered some producer organisations and farmer and worker households to get through the most intense period of COVID-19 in better shape than others,” Mr. Afroz added.

In analysing different product supply chains, Kenyan flower workers’ households belonging to Fairtrade producer organisations scored the highest with a resilience score of 70%, followed by Indonesian coffee farming households (67%), and Peruvian banana farming households (53%). In each case, these scores are higher than those of the non-Fairtrade counterparts, with the greatest difference between certified and non-certified farmers observed in coffee farmers. Fairtrade certified households in coffee value chains, in fact, score a full 13% points higher in the resilience metrics, compared to non-Fairtrade households.

The study also identifies key factors that relieved some of the burden of the pandemic on Fairtrade-certified organisations and households, including whether an organisation had pre-existing financial sustainability and access to credit; whether it received support from Fairtrade’s €15 million COVID-19 Relief and Resilience Fund; and whether it delivered income diversification and food security initiatives for its members and workers.

The report, commissioned by Fairtrade International through funding from the German Ministry for Economic Development Cooperation (BMZ) and the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), echoes the findings from a similar Fairtrade study released in June 2022 on producer resilience. Key findings are being discussed at a virtual panel event on 18 October.

“We know that with climate change and current global political and economic instability, farmers and workers will face increasing challenges in the near future,” said Dr. Arisbe Mendoza, director of global impact at Fairtrade International. “That’s why we call on all actors to ensure that farmers continue to receive emergency cash contributions to tackle urgent health and safety needs and losses and damages, fairer prices through long-term trade relationships so they can build financial stability, and access to credit and income so that they are empowered to invest in a more sustainable and diverse mix of income streams.”

“The conclusions from this report are clear,” Dr. Mendoza added. “And we urge everyone – from companies and governments to civil society actors and beyond – to read this report, understand its lessons and apply them immediately, so that agricultural households and communities can strengthen their resilience to face the expected growth in shocks and stresses set to come.”

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Green Coffee Price
The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) lost 0.2% from August to September 2022, averaging 199.63 US cents/lb for the latter, whilst posting a median value of 198.43 US cents/lb. In September 2022, the I-CIP fluctuated in between 193.28 and 206.37 US cents/lb.

Average prices for all groups indicators decreased in September 2022, except for the Robustas, which had an uptick of 1.6% from August to September 2022. The Robustas averaged 111.36 US cents/lb for the month of September. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds, decreased by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, month-on-month in September. The former averaged 294.09 US cents/lb in September 2022, whilst the latter averaged 267.49 US cents/lb. The upturns are in part due to the average 2nd and 3rd positions of the ICE New York futures market, which lost 0.1% in September 2022 over August 2022. The average of the 2nd and 3rd positions of the ICE (International Coffee Exchange) Futures Europe for the Robustas grew by 1.8%.

The Brazilian Naturals-Robusta differential took the hardest hit from August to September 2022, retracting 3.6% from 112.26 to 108.23 US cents/lb as growth of the Robustas outpaced the Brazilian Naturals. The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential sustained a 2.3% loss for the aforementioned period, whilst the Colombian Milds-Robustas differential shrank by 1.8%. The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential grew by 1% to 74.50 US cents/lb in September 2022. The strongest growth among all the differentials was observed for the Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential, gaining 3.0%, ranging 46.52 to 47.90 US cents/lb for their respective monthly averages. Lastly, the Other Milds-Robustas differential lost 1.7% from August to September 2022. The average of the monthly differential stood at 156.13 US cents/lb, down from 158.78 in August 2022.

The arbitrage between the New York and London Futures markets shrunk by 1.7%, falling to 117.74 US Cents/lb in September 2022 from 119.79 US cents/lb in August 2022.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP decreased 2.0 percentage points between August and September 2022, reaching a low of 8.3%. Robustas and the London futures market presented the lowest volatility amongst all group indicators, at 7.3% and 7.0% in September 2022. The Brazilian Naturals volatility, was the highest amongst the group indicators, averaging 10.9%, a 2.4 percentage point decrease from the previous month. The variation in volatility of the Colombian Milds and Other Milds for August to September 2022 is -2.0 to 8.0% and -2.8 to 8.6%, respectively. The New York futures market remained the most volatile, albeit posting a decrease of 3.4 percentage points, averaging 11.2% for the month of September 2022.

The New York certified stocks decreased 37.2% from the previous month, closing in at 0.45 million bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.59 million bags, representing a decrease of 0.8%.

Export by Coffee Groups
Global exports of green beans in August 2022 totalled 8.83 million bags, compared with 9.17 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 3.7%. The downturn was spread across all groups of coffee, with the exception of the Brazilian Naturals, which saw a 7.1% increase in August 2022 as compared with the same month a year ago. The second consecutive month of negative growth has pushed the cumulative total exports of green beans for the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 further into red, down 1.0% as compared to 0.7% decrease for the first 10 months of the current coffee year. The cumulative total for 2021/22 to August is 107.05 million bags as compared with 108.13 million bags over the same period a year ago.

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 23.0% to 0.86 million bags in August 2022 from 1.12 million bags in August 2021, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 25.6% in August 2022. As a result of the relatively sharp downturn, exports of the Colombian Milds in October 2021–August 2022 were down by 5.7% at 11.32 million bags, as compared with 12.0 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2020/21. Colombia exported 0.79 million bags of green beans in August 2022, the lowest August exports since 0.54 million bags were shipped in 2012.

The Brazilian Naturals bounced back in August with a 7.1% increase, following a 4.6% fall in July 2022, exporting 2.85 million bags as compared with 2.66 million bags in August 2021. The upturn was driven by Brazil, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, with its total green bean exports increasing by 4.6% in August 2022 to 2.44 million bags. However, the cumulative total exports of the Brazilian Naturals for coffee year 2021/22 to August 2022 is down 5.8% at 34.52 million bags, as compared with 36.66 million bags.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 3.7% in August 2022 to 1.94 million bags from 2.01 million bags in the same period last year. This is the fifth consecutive months of fall. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports continued to increase but at a declining rate, falling to 1.3% in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 (22.09 million bags vs 21.08 million bags) from 2.7% in the first 10 months of the same coffee year. Guatemala and Honduras were the two main origins responsible for the latest fall in exports of the Other Milds, with their exports of green beans plunging by 27.7% and 41.3%, respectively.

In Honduras, the coffee industry is struggling with leaf-rust, or roya, which has hit the industry’s harvests, with the country’s coffee association lowering the exports outlook for coffee year 2021/22, twice already, from 5.823 million bags to 4.61 million bags. Guatemala is also dealing with impact of a lower production, due mainly to climatic reasons and availability of labour, that is having a knock-on effect on the country’s exports.

Exports of the Robustas totalled 3.17 million bags in August 2022, as compared with 3.38 million bags in August 2021, down 6.0%. Exports of green beans for the first 11 months of the current and previous coffee years for the Robustas were 42.57 million bags and 41.22 million bags, respectively, up 3.8%. Ethiopia and India are the two main origins behind the latest downturn, suffering from 16.0% and 13.1% decreases, respectively, in August 2022, with their total green bean exports at 0.43 million bags and 0.37 million bags, respectively. India, especially, has had a good year so far, with the total exports of green beans for the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 increasing by 31.1% to 4.62 million bags as compared to 3.53 million bags, an increase of 1.1 million bags. As a result, the production/export ratio is falling sharply, down from 1.48 in coffee year 2020/21 to 1.12 in coffee year 2021/22. The ratio is a good indication of supply availability. Therefore, it is possible that the sharp fall in India’s August 2022 exports is a reflection of the supply availability towards the end of a stellar year.

Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 13.2% in August 2022 to 0.98 million bags from 0.87 million bags in August 2021. In the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22, a total of 11.06 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing an increase of 6.3% from the 10.4 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. The share of soluble coffee of the total exports of all forms of coffee was 9.3% (measured on a moving 12- month average) in August 2022. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 3.58 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22, followed by India with 2.0 million bags, with Indonesia in third place at 1.53 million bags exported over the same period.

Exports of roasted beans increased by 59.9% in August 2022 to 89,548 bags from 55,995 bags in August 2021. The cumulative total for coffee year 2021/22 to August 2022 was 0.75 million bags, as compared with 0.72 million bags in same period a year ago.

Regional Outlook
In October 2021 to August 2022, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 23.3% to 50.46 million bags. Brazil and Colombia are the reasons for this large drop in exports. During this period, shipments from Brazil declined by 27.2% to 34.74 million bags from 47.4 million bags in October-August 2020/21. The volume of exports from Colombia is down 18.7% in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 at 11.17 million bags, from 13.74 million bags in the same period a year ago. A smaller crop harvested during its Arabica ‘off-season’, along with problems with containers and shipping, mainly noted during the middle of the current coffee year, explains the large drop in exports of all forms of coffee in Brazil, while the fall in the exports of Colombia is linked to persistent unfavourable weather conditions reducing the available supply of coffee in the country. Nevertheless, Peru is enjoying a good year, with exports of all forms of coffee expanding by 6.1% in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 to 4.05 million bags from 3.82 million bags in the same period a year ago.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia & Oceania increased by 2.7% to 3.25 million bags in August 2022 but were down 1.5% to 40.86 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22. Indonesia was the origin behind the uptick for August, with its exports growing by 20.1% to 0.65 million bags from 0.54 million bags in August 2021. However, the country is also the main reason behind the negative cumulative growth of the region for the season so far: exports of all forms of coffee are down 17.8% to 6.24 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 as compared with 7.59 million bags in the same period a year ago. Vietnam, the region’s biggest producer and export, made a margin gain in August, with the origin’s exports increasing by 0.1% to 1.89 million bags, bringing the year’s total (October 2021 to August 2022) to 26.6 million bags, up 1.8% year-on-year. India’s shipments were down 6.0% in August 2022 to 0.57 million bags, however the total for the first 11 months remains up at 8.5%, 6.64 million bags versus 6.12 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 11.9% to 1.24 million bags in August 2022 from 1.4 million bags in August 2021. For the first 11 months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 12.48 million bags as compared with 15.44 million bags in coffee year 2020/21. Uganda is the main source of the downturn for the region in August, with its exports falling by 28.5% to 0.5 million bags as compared to 0.7 million bags in August 2021. The cumulative total for coffee year 2021/22 to August 2022 is also down, decreasing by 23.0% to 5.35 million bags from 6.94 million bags in the same period a year ago. The decrease in exports was mainly due to the impact of drought in most of the coffee growing regions, which led to a lower and shorter main harvest season in central and eastern parts of Uganda, and hence lower output.

In August 2022, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico & Central America were down 7.4% to 1.19 million bags as compared with 1.29 million in August 2021. For the first 11 months of the current coffee year, exports are down 13.0%, totalling 15.07 million bags as compared with 17.34 million bags in October–August 2020/21. The region’s sharp downturn in August was due Guatemala and Honduras, down 27.8% and 41.3%, respectively. For the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22, the total exports are 3.16 million bags and 4.53 million bags, for the two origins, respectively, down 15.6% and 24.0%. The reason for the poor performance of the two origins has already been explained in the “Exports by Coffee Groups” section above.

Production and Consumption
The provisional outlook for total production in coffee year 2021/22 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags, a 2.1% decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags in the previous coffee year. World coffee consumption is projected to grow by 3.3% to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2021/22 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020/21. In 2021/22, consumption is expected to exceed production by 3.1 million bags.

For the full report, visit: ico.org.

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The new Minister for Coffee is Joe Kuli, from Anglimp-South Waghi, in the central highlands region of Papa New Guinea. Kuli is the first ever person to hold the title of Minister for Coffee, not just in PNG, but across the world.

Kuli himself comes from the Waghi Valley, Jiwaka. The Waghi Valley used to be a huge coffee plantation, but which was abandoned and is now completely covered in bush.

Prime Minister Marape, on announcing Kuli’s new position, said, “Minister Kuli’s focus will be coffee, coffee and coffee. I want to drink coffee made in Goroka, Mt Hagen, Lae and other parts of the country. I want to see more coffee grown for export to the lucrative markets of the world.”

Coffee is the country’s second largest export, after palm oil, responsible for around 6% of the country’s GDP. Approximately a quarter of the population work on coffee plantations or run their own small coffee farms.

It’s also widely reported that, due to coffee’s value in an extremely poor country, there are regular instances of shipment hijackings, which can cause both large and small growers to lose up to half of their stock grown for export.

Over the last ten years, PNG’s commitment to exporting coffee has continued to expand, with government policies around soil quality, improved infrastructure and the education of farms all helping to make a real impact on the value and quality of Papa New Guinean coffee beans. Today, New Guinean beans can be found in everything from artisanal coffee shops to Nespresso Pods.

Papa New Guinea’s new minister for coffee is being welcomed by the country’s coffee growers and producers, in addition to international coffee providers. In recent years, Papa New Guinea’s coffee production has gone through turbulent changes, with some larger plantations being abandoned. Instead, more and more of the country’s coffee beans have been coming from smaller, independent farms which are struggling to meet an ever-growing demand.

“In our opinion,” said Rob Hodge, a director at United Kingdom-based Rave Coffee, “the announcement is great news for anyone who enjoys high-quality coffee. Papa New Guinea’s climate is perfect for growing famously well-rounded and smooth coffee beans, which can be made into absolutely stunning coffees. Today, Papa New Guinea coffee is already enjoyed around the world, and we’re extremely excited to see the country commit to increasing production, focusing on quality and helping to spread its incredible coffee flavours across the world.”

Papa New Guinea’s coffee beans are extremely popular in the United States, Australia, the UK and elsewhere in the world. They can be found in a wide range of products, from coffee subscriptions to simple flat whites you might enjoy in artisan coffee shops.

Hodge added that Papa New Guinea’s coffee industry is a great mixture of smaller farms and larger plantations. “While the larger plantations create great-tasting, simple coffees, the smaller producers typically create coffee beans with a more wild, temperamental flavour,” he said. “At Rave, we’ve been pushing PNG coffee beans for the last decade, and we’re extremely excited to introduce more beans originating from Papa New Guinea in our products.”

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