Green Coffee Price
The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 175.73 US cents/lb in December, an 8.8% increase from November 2023. The I-CIP posted a median value of 177.64 US cents/lb, having fluctuated between 163.92 and 186.04 US cents/lb. The December 2023 I-CIP is above the December 2022 I-CIP by 11.8%, with the 12-month rolling average at 165.23 US cents/lb. The I-CIP grew steadily in December 2023, reaching a nine-month high. The rise in tensions in the Red Sea has prompted some shipping lines to re-route their coffee-carrying vessels. Thus, for South-East Asian and East African coffee en route to Europe, unintended consequences include a rise in freight costs as some shipping companies have introduced surcharges to account for the now-extended transit times.

The Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased by 7.6% and 6.9%, to 210.68 and 210.76 US cents/lb, respectively, in December 2023. The Brazilian Naturals presented a growth of 9.4%, reaching an average of 185.23 US cents/lb. However, the Robustas grew the most by 10.5% to 135.47 US cents/lb, the highest level since May 1995, when they were valued at 140.90 US cents/lb. ICE’s New York market was a strong driver of the positive growth, having increased by 9.6% to 186.67 US cents/lb, whilst the London Futures market expanded by 12.2%, to 123.91 US cents/lb, also the highest level since May 1995.

Arbitrage, as measured between the London and New York Futures markets, widened by 5.0% to 62.77 US cents/lb in December 2023.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP expanded to 10.2% between November and December 2023. The Colombian Milds’ and Other Milds’ volatility also increased to 10.8% and 10.9%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Brazilian Naturals’ volatility rose by 2.9 percentage points to 12.6% from November to December 2023. The Robustas presented the smallest volatility increase, with a 0.9 percentage point gain, averaging 9.2% for the month of December. The London Futures market’s volatility increased by 2.7 percentage points to 9.1%. Lastly, the New York futures market’s volatility moved in tandem to that of London, expanding by 2.4 percentage points and reaching 10.5%.

The New York certified stocks continued on their downward trajectory, retracting by 15.0% to 0.28 million 60-kg bags, one of the lowest figures ever recorded. Certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 0.57 million 60-kg bags, a 68.4% increase since November 2023.

Exports by Coffee Groups — Green Beans
Global green bean exports in November 2023 totalled 9.79 million bags, as compared with 9.1 million bags in the same month of the previous year, up 7.6%. As a result, the cumulative total for coffee year 2023/24 to November is 18.39 million bags, as compared with 17.7 million bags over the same period a year ago, up 3.9%.

Shipments of the Other Milds increased by 17.9% in November 2023 to 1.31 million bags from 1.11 million bags in the same period last year. Peru was the main driver of the double-digit growth of this group of coffee, with the origin’s exports of the Other Milds increasing by 60.1% to 0.57 million bags in November 2023 from 0.35 million bags in November 2022, following a 28.9% increase in October 2023. The resurgence of Peru’s exports of the Other Milds is due to the return to normality of local production conditions in coffee year 2023/24 as compared with those seen in coffee year 2022/23. Irregular weather patterns negatively affected the local supply of coffee beans in 2022/23, especially in the first three months of the coffee year, when 1.15 million bags were exported. This was the lowest first three months of exports since the 0.93 million bags shipped in coffee year 2014/15, representing a 26.7% fall in the average volume of exports in coffee years 2015/16–2021/22, which was 1.57 million bags. As a result, the cumulative volume of total exports of the Other Milds also increased, jumping by 9.2% in the first two months of coffee year 2023/24 to 2.74 million bags, versus 2.51 million bags over the same period in 2022/23.

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals increased in November 2023, rising by 1.6% to 3.63 million bags. For the first two months of coffee year 2023/24, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals amounted to 7.35 million bags, up 4.0% from 7.07 million bags over the same period a year ago. The relatively shallow positive growth rate reflects the 2.6% increase in exports of the Brazilian Naturals from Brazil, the biggest producer and exporter of this group of coffee, which rose to 3.2 million bags in November 2023 from 3.12 million bags November 2022.

Exports of the Colombian Milds increased by 34.0% to 1.15 million bags in November 2023 from 0.85 million bags in November 2022, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were up 35.6% in November 2023. As a result, exports of the Colombian Milds for the first two months of coffee year 2023/24 are up 18.7% at 2.1 million bags, as compared with 1.77 million bags in the first two months of coffee year 2022/23.

Green bean exports of the Robustas amounted to 3.7 million bags in November 2023, as compared with 3.56 million bags in November 2022, up 4.0%. In volume terms, these constitute the biggest November exports on record, surpassing the level set in November 2022. However, the rise was not sufficient to offset the 10.9% decrease observed in October 2023, when the 2.49 million bags exported represented the lowest quantity for the month since the 1.91 million bags in October 2011. As a result, the cumulative total for the first two months of coffee year 2023/24 is down 2.5%, at 6.2 million bags, as compared with 6.36 million bags in the first two months of coffee year 2022/23. The main driver of November’s Robustas increase was Brazil, shipping 0.86 million bags, a jump of 850.2%.

Exports by Regions — All Forms of Coffee
In November 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee increased by 24.7% to 6.07 million bags. The source of the strong positive growth is mainly Brazil, which saw its exports increase by 21.1% to 4.34 million bags from 3.58 million bags in November 2022. More specifically, it was the Robustas from the origin, which in November increased by 850.2% to 0.86 million bags from 0.09 million bags, which drove the region’s positive growth. The November 2023 exports are Brazil’s highest on record for Robusta coffee, beating the 698,856 bags exported in August 2023. Brazil is one of the largest producers and exporters of the Robustas, having accounted for an 8.1% share of the group’s total exports in coffee year 2021/22, i.e. 3.94 million bags. That said, in July–October 2023, Brazil’s share of the Robustas more than doubled, increasing to 22.3%, with the country exporting 3.09 million bags in just four months. This surge was in response to the reduced volume of Robustas coming out of Vietnam, whose Robusta exports fell by 27.5% in July–October 2023 to 4.92 million bags from 6.78 million bags over the same period a year ago. The continued rampant expansion of Brazil’s Robusta exports despite Vietnam’s recovery in November 2023 suggests that its strong foray into this market may continue.

Robusta exports fell by 27.5% in July–October 2023 to 4.92 million bags from 6.78 million bags over the same period a year ago. The continued rampant expansion of Brazil’s Robusta exports despite Vietnam’s recovery in November 2023 suggests that its strong foray into this market may continue.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 13.5% to 1.01 million bags in November 2023 from 1.16 million bags in November 2022. For the first two months of coffee year 2023/24, exports totalled 2.06 million bags as compared with 2.24 million bags in coffee year 2022/23, down 8.1%. This is the third consecutive month of negative growth for the region and it affected most origins, including all the major producers whose combined exports decreased by 11.4% to 0.93 million bags from 1.05 million bags in November 2022. It is speculated that the surge in Brazil’s Robusta exports is crowding out traditional exporters of the group from the market, thus broadly affecting Africa as a whole, which is a largely Robusta-producing region. Uganda, the largest producer and exporter of Robusta coffee in Africa, was also affected by a delayed harvest season which negatively impacted the supply availability.

In November 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico & Central America were up 15.7% to 0.41 million bags, as compared with 0.35 million in November 2022. As a result, total exports are up 11.0% for October 2023 to November 2023 at 0.9 million bags, as compared with 0.81 million bags for the same period a year ago. Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico are the three main origins behind the region’s double-digit growth in November, with their respective exports up 114.0%, 29.7% and 11.8%. These robust growth rates do not, however, herald the beginning of a record-breaking year for the three origins or for the region, but rather are indications that export volumes are returning to the levels of the recent past, following a sharp fall in coffee year 2022/23. Accordingly, the average October–November export volume for coffee years 2017/18–2021/22 was 0.7 million bags for the three countries as compared with 0.6 million bags in coffee year 2022/23, a 14.6% fall. This has now increased to 0.68 million bags in coffee year 2023/24.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia & Oceania decreased by 18.0% to 3.12 million bags in November 2023. November’s downturn was mainly due to Indonesia, with exports down 45.2% to 0.49 million bags from 0.89 million bags in November 2022. These are the lowest November exports since the 0.2 million bags shipped in 2018. The decrease can be attributed to a reduced harvest in coffee year 2023/24, which is estimated to have fallen by 16.6% to 10.0 million bags from 11.98 million bags in coffee year 2022/23 on the back of excessive rains that damaged cherries in April–May 2023. Vietnam’s exports fell by 7.7% in November, a vast improvement from the steep declines of 23.6%, 45.0% and 44.7% seen in August, September and October 2023. This may indicate that its supply issues have now started to resolve after very low in-origin stock levels were reported in Q4 of coffee year 2022/23, when the start of the harvest still remained three to four months away.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 25.4% in November 2023 to 0.77 million bags from 1.03 million bags in November 2022. In the first two months of coffee year 2023/24, a total of 1.75 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 3.0% from the 1.8 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year.

Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee for the year to date was 8.6% in November 2023, down from 9.2% in the same period a year ago. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, having shipped 0.24 million bags in November 2023.

Exports of roasted beans were down 15.5% in November 2023 to 54,379 bags, as compared with 64,324 bags in November 2022. The cumulative total for coffee year 2023/24 to November 2023 was 0.1 million bags, as compared with 0.13 million bags in same period a year ago.

Production and Consumption
World coffee production increased by 0.1% to 168.2 million bags in coffee year 2022/23. The stagnant growth rate belies the tremendous changes at the regional level, with the coffee world neatly split between the expanding Americas and the shrinking rest of the world.

Asia & Oceania and Africa’s 4.7% and 7.2% decreases in production to 49.84 million bags and 17.9 million bags, respectively, can be attributed to adverse weather conditions negatively affecting key producers in the regions, particularly Vietnam, Côte d’Ivoire and Uganda. The magnitude of the fall in outputs of the two regions was entirely mitigated by the Americas, especially by South America’s 4.8% increase, which in turn was driven mainly by the biennial production-affected 8.4% increase in Brazil. The combined output of the Americas was 100.5 million bags.

The Americas versus the rest of the world split was also reflected in the production split between the Arabicas and Robustas, with the former’s output increasing by 1.8% to 94.0 million bags as compared with the 2.0% decrease of the latter to 74.2 million bags.

Looking ahead, the output for coffee year 2023/24 is expected to increase by 5.8% to 178.0 million bags, with the Arabicas’ output rising to 102.2 million bags and the Robustas’ increasing to 75.8 million bags.

The biennial production effect will play a large role in the outlook, especially for Brazil and the Arabicas, as the impact of the July 2021 frost continues to be resolved. Coffee year 2023/24 is anticipated to be an exceptional off-biennial year, feeling more like a good on-biennial following an average on-biennial year. Adverse weather conditions, first noted in 2022 and continuing into 2023, will have a negative impact on the outlook for coffee year 2023/24. The anticipated El Niño phenomenon is set to dampen the outlook in Asia, especially for origins like Indonesia. Meanwhile, Vietnam is expected to benefit from the drier/hotter weather as irrigation mitigates the reduced precipitation.

World coffee consumption is continuing to resolve through the issues brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, with the consumption trend following an established patten in response to an external shock. The expectation for coffee year 2022/23 was for a smaller positive growth rate; however, world coffee consumption actually recorded a decrease of 2.0% to 173.1 million bags.

Consumption in coffee year 2022/23 did not faithfully follow the established pattern due to the impact of the high cost of living, falling disposable incomes and a long stocks drawdown. Despite coffee being relatively inelastic, the challenging global economic environment would have had a negative impact on its consumption. The world inflation rate was at its highest in 2021 at 9.4%, while the benchmark interest rate averaged 4.9% at the end of September 2023 in the European Union, UK and USA, the highest level since an average of 5.8% in 2000. At the same time, there was a large drawdown of stocks, where combined stocks reported by the European Coffee Federation and those held at the Intercontinental Exchange’s warehouses in the USA fell by 4.8 million bags from 14.5 million to 9.8 million. This drawdown would have reduced the need for purchases on the international market, seemingly reflected as lower and anomalous global consumption rates for coffee year 2022/23.

The world coffee consumption outlook for coffee year 2023/24 is broadly framed by the assumption that the global economy will continue to grow at above 3.0%, and that the industry will respond to the large drawdown of stocks, which will be positively reflected in apparent consumption. As a result, world coffee consumption is expected to grow by 2.2% to 177.0 million bags, with non-producing countries making the biggest contribution to the overall increase. Coffee consumption in this group of countries should expand by 2.1%.

As a result, the world coffee market is expected to run a surplus of 1.0 million bags in coffee year 2023/24.

The outlook is taken from the newest publication of the Statistics Section of the Secretariat of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Coffee Report and Outlook (CRO). For the full CRO or for more information, visit the ICO website: icocoffee.org.

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Sumidagawa Brewing.
Image: Yumi Nakatsugwa

Asahi YOU. US, Ltd has found an innovative way to further the circular economy. The wholly owned subsidiary of Asahi Group Japan, Ltd, was established in January 2022 with a focus on sustainable products and activities, not only within the Asahi Group but also in collaboration with municipalities, universities as well as other business entities. Coffee and tea companies are now benefitting from two of its craft beers, Kuramae Black and Sayama Green, which are using coffee and green tea remnants or by-products that are infused into the beer.

Kuramae Black is a coffee-blended stout beer, named Kuramae after the location of Asahi’s initial product partner, Ennoki coffee roastery. The company hopes Kuramae Black will become popular among the local community and be recognised as a special product of the region. As a coffee roaster, Ennoki conducts test roasts before finalising the roasting profile of each coffee bean. They were concerned that there was nothing to do with the remaining test-roasted beans after cupping, other than discard them. Subsequently, Asahi YOU. US developed the idea of making a craft beer using the test-roasted coffee bean.

Kuramae Black launched in July 2021. It is brewed in Sumidagawa Brewing, which had been experimenting with a coffee-flavoured beer for a long time, and it was aware that stout beer could be the best to blend with brewed coffee, as it has some similarities in colour and flavour. “Since we source the test-roasted coffee from Ennoki and another two roasters now, we cannot expect a high level of consistency unlike when we order the specific blend for the product. We closely communicate with those roasters about when and how many beans we need for the next batch so that they can prepare the stock,” said Ichiro Moda, unit leader of Asahi YOU. US. “However, it is inevitable that the taste and flavour of the bean as well as those of Kuramae Black are slightly different each time. We positively see this variability as one of the characteristics of Kuramae Black.”

Sumidagawa Brewing, a microbrewery located on the premises of the Asahi Group’s head office, produces craft beers such as Kuramae Black and Sayama Green. It was originally established in 1995, and now is under the management of Asahi YOU. US. When making Kuramae Black, it brews stout beer and coffee separately, then blends them at about 70 and 30 percent, respectively. The stout beer contains 7-8 percent alcohol, which is reduced to 4.5 percent in Kuramae Black.

Left: Kuramae Black. Right: Sayama Green
Images: Asahi YOU. US, Ltd

Going Green

Sayama Green is beer blended with a green tea infusion, which launched in April 2022. Sayama in Saitama Prefecture, north of Tokyo, is one of the most famous tea-producing districts in Japan. When making Sayama Green, they use a by-product of sencha called keba-cha (hairy tea). Keba-cha is the surface of the stem of the tea leaves that comes off during the rolling and drying process and is separated from the sencha in the final cleaning by a sorting machine.

When producing Sayama Green, keba-cha is brewed in room temperature water for three hours in order to extract a clear liquor with sweetness and umami, without much bitterness or astringency. After the infused keba-cha is strained, the liquor is boiled for a few seconds to sanitise it. Finally, the cooled infusion is blended with an Indian Pale Ale (IPA) of 30 to 70 percent, with an alcohol content of 4.5 percent.

Keba-cha is sourced from three young tea producers in Sayama: Okutomien, Yokotaen and Ishidaen. Masahiro Okutomi of Okutomien explained, “When neatly shaped whole leaf sencha is sorted, some by-products are collected separately such as stems, powdery leaf, keba-cha and so on. Those by-products are still drinkable and usable teas. They are refined by firing or roasting, then sold as stem tea, roasted tea, or powdery tea in tea shops. Keba-cha can be added to tea bags after cutting into smaller particles.” He said that it is also helpful to clean up the tea- processing machines before resuming manufacturing, since the hairy keba-cha can absorb tiny dust or odour in the machines. “We are pleased to offer keba-cha as a raw material for Sayama Green, that is a unique and effective way to utilise keba-cha and increase its value.”

Asahi YOU. US supplies its craft beers in barrels for catering services, mainly beer restaurants or pubs in the neighbouring areas. The canned products are also sold in liquor shops or ecommerce sites. The company produced 3,300 litres of Kuramae Black in 2022 and estimates it will produce 4,200 litres in 2023. Asahi YOU brewed 4,050 litres of Sayama Green in 2022 and expects 4,100 in 2023.

• Yumi Nakatsugawa has been working as a freelance writer specialising in food and restaurant management. While freelancing, she developed a love of black tea as well as tea- producing countries and tea people. Her passion for black tea has brought her to Sri Lanka, India, Kenya, Indonesia, Nepal, Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea to see tea production firsthand. Based in Japan, Yumi may be reached at: ym_n@nifty.com.

The post Crafting sustainable beer with coffee & tea appeared first on Tea & Coffee Trade Journal.

Having collaborated on numerous initiatives over the years, the SCA and ICO, bound by this MoU, aim to harness their combined outreach and expertise. This dynamic partnership sets out to design and implement interventions that will benefit coffee stakeholders worldwide through knowledge-sharing, education, and capacity building. Under the MoU, both organizations pledge to create training programs and foster skill development across diverse segments of the coffee value chain — from production and trade to roasting, brewing, and preparation methods.

Notably, the MoU outlines a joint commitment to expanding market promotion and encouraging the consumption of high-quality coffee. The SCA and ICO are united in their mission to facilitate constructive dialogue, linking ICO Members, industry experts, and coffee professionals. This collaboration and the programs to follow will actively promote sustainable practices and will provide increased visibility in specialty markets, with an emphasis on attributes, consuming markets, communication, and skill building. This program aims to empower producer organizations to access specialty coffee and embrace higher value trading models through the use of the SCA Coffee Value Assessment and its tools.

This agreement reflects the dedication of the Specialty Coffee Association to make coffee a thriving equitable and sustainable activity for the entire value chain, in tandem with the International Coffee Organization.

On this partnership, Vanúsia Nogueira, executive director of the ICO stated, “Promoting comprehensive training is not just a necessity; it is one of the most important elements to fuel the future of the coffee sector. Education and skills development are the keys to unlocking the full potential of our industry, ensuring a robust foundation for sustainable growth, fostering innovation, and empowering every actor in the value chain, from bean to cup. The specialty coffee segment is synonymous with quality and excellence, and I am confident that many stakeholders, especially in coffee producing countries, will benefit from this important partnership with SCA.”

Yannis Apostolopoulos, chief executive officer of the SCA added, “[This] signature marks a significant stride towards sustainability by creating new opportunities for knowledge transfer across the coffee sector. The SCA is committed to supporting institutions, organizations, and platforms in the coffee sector who are dedicated to building an equitable and sustainable industry, and the association believes that collaborative and diverse approaches, like this partnership with the ICO, will play a crucial role in making the rewards of the specialty coffee segment accessible worldwide.”

The post The ICO and SCA join forces appeared first on Tea & Coffee Trade Journal.

The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 161.53 US cents/lb in November, a 6.3% increase from October 2023. The I-CIP posted a median value of 161.63 US cents/lb, having fluctuated between 153.32 and 169.99 US cents/lb. The November 2023 I-CIP is above the November 2022 I-CIP by 3.1%, with the 12-month rolling average at 163.69 US cents/lb, having ranged in between 151.94 in October 2023 and 178.57 US cents/lb in April 2022. The I-CIP has remained stable around the 160 US cents/lb mark, with daily price variation declining on average for the October 2022 to November 2023 range, only 0.04%.

The Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased by 5.3% and 7.2%, to 195.85 and 197.18 US cents/lb, respectively, in November 2023. The Brazilian Naturals presented the strongest growth of 8.8%, reaching an average of 169.25 US cents/lb. However, the Robustas also grew by 3.2% to 122.63 US cents/lb. The International Coffee Exchanges’s (ICE) New York market was a strong driver of the positive growth, growing by 9.2% to 170.25 US cents/lb whilst the London Futures market expanded by 4.8%, to 110.45 US cents/lb.

The Colombian Milds–Other Milds differential contracted from 2.02 to 1.33 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds–Brazilian Naturals differential shrank 12.6% % to 26.60 US cents/lb, whilst the Colombian Milds–Robustas differential also expanded 9.1% from October to November 2023, averaging 73.22 US cents/lb. Meanwhile, the Other Milds–Brazilian Naturals differential contracted 1.8%, reaching 27.93 US cents/lb. However, the Other Milds–Robustas and the Brazilian Naturals–Robustas differentials expanded 14.5% and 27.1%, averaging 74.55 and 46.62 US cents/lb, respectively, in November 2023.

Arbitrage, as measured between the London and New York Futures markets, widened by 18.4% to 59.81 US cents/lb in November 2023. Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP was raised to 8.0% between October and November 2023. The Colombian Milds’ and Other Milds’ volatility also increased to 8.7% and 8.8%. Meanwhile, the Brazilian Naturals’ volatility rose by 1.1 percentage points to 9.7% from October to November 2023. The Robustas presented the smallest volatility increase, with a 0.8 percentage point gain, averaging 8.3% for the month of November. The London Futures market’s volatility decreased by 2.4 percentage points to 9.1%. Lastly, the New York futures market’s volatility moved in tandem to that of London, expanding by 2.4 percentage points and reaching 10.5%.

The New York and London certified stocks continued on their downward trajectory, where London retracted by 49.2% to 0.34 million 60-kg bags, the lowest figure recorded since March 2014. Certified stocks of Arabica coffee reached 0.32 million 60-kg bags, a 24.5% decrease.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global exports of green beans in October 2023 totalled 8.57 million bags, compared with 8.61 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 0.4%. The downturn was driven by the Robustas, the only one of the four groups to start coffee year 2023/24 with negative growth.

The Brazilian Naturals made a strong start to the new coffee year, with exports increasing by 10.0% to 4.02 million bags from 3.66 million bags in October 2022. This is the second-highest volume exported in the month of October on record, just behind the 3.9 million bags shipped in 2020. Brazil was the main driver of this strong start, with the origin’s total green bean exports up 23.0% to 4.08 million bags in October 2023, which is also the country’s second-highest volume of exports in the month of October to be documented.

Exports of the Colombian Milds increased by 0.2% to 1.031 million bags in October 2023 from 1.03 million bags in October 2022. The near-stagnant start to the new coffee year was due to the conflation of the continued downturn in Colombia, the largest producer and export of the Colombian Milds, and the strong start made by Kenya and Tanzania, the two other origins that make up this coffee group.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 1.8% in October 2023 to 1.59 million bags from 1.62 million bags in the same period last year. The main negative contributions came from Brazil (down 66.2% and 78,719 bags) and Papua New Guinea (down 34.3% and 53,737 bags), while Honduras provided the largest positive contribution (up 28.9% and 138,993 bags).

Of the four coffee groups, the Robustas have recorded the highest contraction in the new coffee year to date, with exports falling by 8.0% to 2.88 million bags from 3.14 million bags. Vietnam, the largest Robusta producer in the world, was the driver of the sharp downturn, with exports of Robusta green beans down 45.2% to 0.69 million bags in October 2023 from 1.26 million bags in October 2022.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In October 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee increased by 16.4% to 5.95 million bags. Brazil was the main driving force of the double-digit growth of the region, having shipped 4.37 million bags in October 2023, a jump of 21.7%. Peru provided added support, with its exports increasing by 28.9% to 0.62 million bags from 0.48 million bags in October 2022.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia & Oceania totalled 2.05 million bags in October 2023, decreasing by 26.7%. Vietnam, the world’s second-largest producer and exporter of coffee, was the main driver of the region’s sharp downturn, with total exports down 44.7% to 0.75 million bags in October 2023 from 1.36 million bags in October 2022. This was the lowest volume of exports since the 0.7 million bags shipped in October 2008. A shortage of exportable materials within Vietnam, due to the lower-than-expected harvest in coffee year 2022/23, a delay in supply from the current coffee year’s harvest and a very strong export performance in the first nine months of the previous coffee year, explain the sharp downturn.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 1.0% to 1.07 million bags in October 2023 from 1.08 million bags in October 2022. Ethiopia (–13.5%), Rwanda (–34.8%) and Cameroon (–57.4%) were the three main origins making a negative contribution to the region’s exports, in absolute terms, while Burundi (200.0%), Côte d’Ivoire (40.9%), Kenya (31.4%) and Uganda (2.8%) were the main origins making positive contributions. According to the Uganda Coffee Development Authority, the promising export performance in October 2023 was due to adequate supply from a good crop harvest in the South-Western region and the prevailing good prices on the global scene which prompted exporters to release their stocks. In Ethiopia, contract disputes arising out of a mismatch between local purchasing prices and the global market prices, first reported in the middle of coffee year 2022/23, continue to negatively impact export volume in the new coffee year.

In October 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico & Central America were up 0.4% to 0.459 million bags as compared with 0.457 million in October 2022. The performances of individual origins belied the less-than-dynamic growth of the region, with very strong negative and positive growth rates registered in October: Costa Rica (212.7%), El Salvador (69.6%), Guatemala (18.0%) and Nicaragua (15.6%) on the expansion side against the decreasing Dominican Republic (–80.1%), Honduras (–39.2%) and Mexico (–11.1%).

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 16.9% in October 2023 to 0.91 million bags from 0.78 million bags in October 2022. Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee for the year to date was 10.6% in October 2023, up from 9.0% for the same period a year ago. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, having shipped 0.28 million bags in October 2023. Exports of roasted beans were down 20.4% in October 2023 to 49,185 bags, as compared with 61,781 bags in October 2022.

Production and Consumption
World coffee production increased by 0.1% to 168.2 million bags in coffee year 2022/23. The stagnant growth rate belies the tremendous changes at the regional level, with the coffee world neatly split between the expanding Americas and the shrinking rest of the world.

Asia & Oceania and Africa’s 4.7% and 7.2% decreases in production to 49.84 million bags and 17.9 million bags, respectively, can be attributed to adverse weather conditions negatively affecting key producers in the regions, particularly Vietnam, Côte d’Ivoire and Uganda. The magnitude of the fall in outputs of the two regions was entirely mitigated by the Americas, especially by South America’s 4.8% increase, which in turn was driven mainly by the biennial production-affected 8.4% increase in Brazil.

The combined output of the Americas was 100.5 million bags. The Americas versus the rest of the world split was also reflected in the production split between the Arabicas and Robustas, with the former’s output increasing by 1.8% to 94.0 million bags as compared with the 2.0% decrease of the latter to 74.2 million bags.

Looking ahead, the output for coffee year 2023/24 is expected to increase by 5.8% to 178.0 million bags, with the Arabicas’ output rising to 102.2 million bags and the Robustas’ increasing to 75.8 million bags.

The biennial production effect will play a large role in the outlook, especially for Brazil and the Arabicas, as the impact of the July 2021 frost continues to be resolved. Coffee year 2023/24 is anticipated to be an exceptional off-biennial year, feeling more like a good on-biennial following an average on-biennial year. Adverse weather conditions, first noted in 2022 and continuing into 2023, will have a negative impact on the outlook for coffee year 2023/24. The anticipated El Niño phenomenon is set to dampen the outlook in Asia, especially for origins like Indonesia. Meanwhile, Vietnam is expected to benefit from the drier/hotter weather as irrigation mitigates the reduced precipitation.

World coffee consumption is continuing to resolve through the issues brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic, with the consumption trend following an established patten in response to an external shock. The expectation for coffee year 2022/23 was for a smaller positive growth rate; however, world coffee consumption actually recorded a decrease of 2.0% to 173.1 million bags.

Consumption in coffee year 2022/23 did not faithfully follow the established pattern due to the impact of the high cost of living, falling disposable incomes and a long stocks drawdown. Despite coffee being relatively inelastic, the challenging global economic environment would have had a negative impact on its consumption. The world inflation rate was at its highest in 2021 at 9.4%, while the benchmark interest rate averaged 4.9% at the end of September 2023 in the European Union, UK and USA, the highest level since an average of 5.8% in 2000. At the same time, there was a large drawdown of stocks, where combined stocks reported by the European Coffee Federation and those held at the Intercontinental Exchange’s warehouses in the USA fell by 4.8 million bags from 14.5 million to 9.8 million. This drawdown would have reduced the need for purchases on the international market, seemingly reflected as lower and anomalous global consumption rates for coffee year 2022/23.

The world coffee consumption outlook for coffee year 2023/24 is broadly framed by the assumption that the global economy will continue to grow at above 3.0%, and that the industry will respond to the large drawdown of stocks, which will be positively reflected in apparent consumption. As a result, world coffee consumption is expected to grow by 2.2% to 177.0 million bags, with non-producing countries making the biggest contribution to the overall increase. Coffee consumption in this group of countries should expand by 2.1%.

Balance. As a result, the world coffee market is expected to run a surplus of 1.0 million bags in coffee year 2023/24.

The outlook is taken from the newest publication of the Statistics Section of the Secretariat of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Coffee Report and Outlook (CRO). To download the full report or for more information, visit: icocoffee.org.

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The award, named after the visionary leader of illycaffè and the son of the company’s founder, celebrates the work that the Trieste, Italy-based company has been doing every day for the last 30 years, side-by-side with coffee farmers, to offer the best possible sustainable coffee. The award was presented to the winner by illycaffè chairman Andrea Illy during an event held at the New York Public Library in New York.

EIICA celebrates the finest Arabica coffees sourced from all over the world. This event aims to recognize growers for the quality coffee they tirelessly work to produce. The award was assigned by an independent panel of nine experts who examined the best batches from the 2022-2023 harvest through a blind tasting of nine coffees from the nine finalist countries: Brazil, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Nicaragua, and Rwanda. Prior to being evaluated by the panel, each batch of coffee was analysed by illycaffè’s quality control labs and rated in terms of richness and aromatic complexity, the elegance and balance of its flavour and intensity of its aroma.

Guatemala’s Finca Danilandia di Luis Arimany Mondonico won the Coffee Lovers’ Choice Award, assigned by a panel of consumers who, in the weeks prior to the event, carried out blind taste tests of the coffee samples in illy cafés in Trieste, Milan, Paris, London, Sao Paolo and New York and ranked their preferences.

“The absolute victory of the Brazilian coffee coming from regenerative agriculture – chosen blindly among the nine best coffees in the world – fills me with joy. Indeed, the history of the Ernesto Illy Award began in Brazil in 1991 and this confirms that the rewards received, by illycaffè for having transformed Brazil from a leader in quantity to a leader in quality are well-deserved,” said Andrea Illy. “After more than 25 years of neverending and tireless work by our team of agronomists and the University of Coffee, the leap has finally happened thanks to regenerative agriculture, which we decided to develop in 2018 for the benefits it brings to the environment and everyone’s health.”

The panel that voted for the Best of the Best award included Guatemala’s professional taster Silvia Escobar; the President of Federação dos Cafeicultores do Cerrado, Brasilian Glaucio De Castro; the director of the CoffeeLab quality laboratory, Indian Sunalini Narayan Menon; chef Ricard Camarena, who has been awarded two Michelin stars and a green star for his dedication to sustainability at his Ricard Camarena Restaurant in Valencia; American chefs Carrie and Rupert Blease, who manage the Michelin-starred Lord Stanley restaurant in San Francisco; Andrea Aprea, a Michelin-starred chef with a restaurant bearing his name in Milan; French writer and journalist Adelaide de Clermont-Tonnere, editor-in-chief of Point de Vue magazine; Inga Griese, founder and editor-in-chief of ICON, the style supplement of the German newspaper Welt Am Sonntag; Angelina Villa Clarke, a journalist contributing to prestigious English-language publications including Forbes.

Commenting on the winning coffee, the jury said, “This year’s Ernesto Illy International Coffee Award winner is a rounded, wholesome, and fully bodied cup, with rich yet mellow flavors of a balance of chocolate, caramel, brown sugar, and toasted almonds on a bed of refined brightness, with a lingering finish of mild, gentle, yet harmonious sweetness. It truly represents the finest taste characteristics of its origin.”

Martha Stewart, Matilda De Angelis, Pat Cleveland, Coco Rocha, Candela Pelizza, Tamu Mc Pherson, Carlo Sestini, Simon and Marina Ksandr, Nick Lowry, Tesa Pesic are some of the celebrities who attended the gala event at the New York Public Library, hosted by chef and TV star Marcus Samuelsson, to celebrate the best coffee producers who work behind the unique illy blend.

The Ernesto Illy International Coffee Award is also an unmissable networking opportunity for all those involved in the coffee industry, from producers to exporters, from traders to institutional representatives. In the morning they all met at the United Nations Headquarters to attend a panel discussion on protecting the future of coffee. Alongside illycaffè chairman Andrea Illy, speakers included Vanusia Nogueira, executive director, International Coffee Organization; Jeffrey Sachs, professor of economy at Columbia University and co-chair at the Regenerative Society Foundation; Oscar Schaps, president of the Latin American division of Stone X Financial Inc; and Glaucio de Castro, president of the Federação dos Cafeicultores do Cerrado Mineiro. (For a full recap of the event at the UN, see the Editor’s Blog: “The time is now” to invest in regenerative agriculture (teaandcoffee.net).

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This holiday season, Peet’s is debuting its Iced Peppermint Mocha Black Tie. A tantalising take on a holiday classic, the Peppermint Mocha Black Tie infuses Cold Brew with aromatic peppermint and pairs it with decadent layers of house-made chocolate, and sweetened condensed milk, topped with a cascade of half and half.

The 2023 holiday menu, available 2 November through 2 January 2024*, also features the highly-anticipated return of other familiar and customisable favourites including:

• Holiday Spice Latte (hot/iced): A returning favourite, the Holiday Spice Latte recalls the comfort of homestyle baking. Each cup warms with the Espresso Forte®, freshly steamed milk, and Peet’s Holiday Spice syrup, topped with a dusting of baking spice. Available hot or iced.
• Peppermint Mocha (hot/iced): A holiday classic, Peet’s Peppermint Mocha infuses Espresso Forte with rich, house-made chocolate sauce, and fragrant, sweet peppermint, topped with a cloud of whipped cream.
• Holiday Blend: This year’s blend, a dark roast, offers notes of Guatemalan chocolate, smooth Kenyan black currant, and Ethiopian candied peel with a full Sumatra finish. Roasted with the finest beans of the year, the Holiday Blend is also available in decaf and K-Cup pods. MSRP: $22.95 for 16 oz bag in coffee bars and Peets.com.
• Free Drip Coffee: To wrap up 12 Days of Peet’s, consumers can also look forward to the return of a free drip coffee or tea on Christmas Eve. For more information on Peet’s holiday line up and full offers, visit peets.com.

12 Days of Peet’s
As we countdown to the most wonderful time of the year, get ready for different ways to celebrate in-store and online starting 13-24 December with BOGO deals on select holiday beverages from noon to close, to discounts on merchandise and coffee beans (terms & conditions apply).

During the 12 Days of Peet’s, USD $1 from every purchase of Peet’s Holiday Blend, both in-store and online at peets.com, will be donated to No Kid Hungry, which is focused on ending childhood hunger in America by ensuring that all children get the healthy food they need every day to thrive. (Every $1 donation provides 10 meals.)**

“We think of the holidays as peak Peet’s,” said Jessica Buttimer, vp brand, Peet’s Coffee. “Every year, we go to great lengths to make sure coffee people are never without a great cup of coffee all season long, from roasting our best of year Holiday Blend to creating instant on-the-go classics like our new Iced Peppermint Mocha Black Tie.”

*While supplies last
**Peet’s will donate up to a maximum of $30,000 for qualifying purchases made from 13-24 December 2023.

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“Investing in our partners is what drives our success,” said Sara Trilling, evp and president of Starbucks North America, Seattle, Washington. “It’s what makes us all partners. And an important way we do this is by investing in our partners’ journey, to bridge to a better future at Starbucks and beyond. This entails engaging with, and listening to, their ideas and feedback while continuing to raise the bar by offering competitive pay and the best benefits package in the industry.”

Highlights of Starbucks partner investments include:
• Vacation Accrual: Starting this February, hourly partners will accrue paid vacation time sooner, beginning just 90-days after hire.

• Competitive Pay: Sustained investment in retail partner pay remains a priority. Starbucks moved the wage floor for all U.S. retail hourly partners to USD $15 per hour in 2022 and has continued to add incremental increases, while recognising and rewarding tenure. Starting with competitive pay — Starbucks provides U.S. hourly retail partners an average wage of nearly $17.50 per hour, a barista wage range between $15 and $24 per hour and a total compensation, with benefits, of approximately $27 per hour.

Effective 1 January 2024, eligible U.S. retail hourly partners will see a 3% increase and differentiated pay for eligible tenured partners. Eligible partners with 2-5 years of service will get at least 4% and those with 5 or more years of service will get at least 5%.

• Introduction of First-Ever North America Barista Championship: With the first-ever North America Barista Championship kicking off this February, Starbucks partners will have the opportunity to showcase the unique role they play in bringing the Starbucks experience to life for customers each day, demonstrating their commitment to connection, craft, and community. This program will be open to eligible baristas and shift supervisors in participating U.S. and Canada stores as well as eligible Siren Retail roles.

• Career Mobility: Craft isn’t just about coffee – it shows up in how partners hone and master their craft in their day-to-day roles. To further support partner career growth and mobility, the company is exploring credential and certification programs to build on the Starbucks College Achievement Plan (SCAP). More than 23,000 partners are currently on their unique educational journey to earning their first-time bachelor’s degree through SCAP, a first of its kind partnership with Arizona State University’s (ASU) top-ranked online degree program. Tuition and fees are covered upfront for partners, helping to remove the hurdle of rising tuition costs that often block their pathway.

To date, more than 10,000 partners have graduated and 20% of partners enrolled in SCAP are first generation college students. Starbucks is committed to helping at least 25,000 partners graduate by 2025, with an expected investment of approximately $250 million or more by 2025.

• Financial Wellness: Financial wellness benefits at Starbucks are grounded with equity ownership in the company through annual Bean Stock grants, which have awarded more than $2 billion in additional earnings to partners, to-date.

Starting this January, partners will be able to sign up to receive the new Siren Card – a premium card offering a high-tech banking experience designed exclusively for Starbucks Partners. Built with cred.ai and Visa USA, the Siren Card comes packed with exclusive tech features, the world’s first “automatic credit score optimiser,” 24/7 support, and the guarantee to never pay account fees or interest, all supporting financial wellness with zero effort.

• Partner-Centric Scheduling: Starbucks aims to provide partners with hours that align with their individual needs and preferences. To achieve this, Starbucks collects a range of preferred, minimum, and maximum hours to build a complete picture of partner preferences and assist store managers in scheduling and managing their workforce. This improved scheduling protocol will enable partners to contribute to the personalisation of their ideal schedules. Together, these efforts will help Starbucks improve the stability, flexibility, and consistency of schedules.

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Green Coffee Price
The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 151.94 US cents/lb in October, a 0.8% decline from September 2023. The I-CIP posted a median value of 151.58 US cents/lb, having fluctuated between 145.99 and 160.09 US cents/lb.

The Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased by 0.5% and 0.2%, to 185.97 and 183.95 US cents/lb, respectively, in October 2023. The Brazilian Naturals presented the strongest growth of 0.9%, reaching an average of 155.52 US cents/lb. However, Robustas retracted 4.1% to 118.83 US cents/lb. ICE’s New York market grew by 1.5% whilst the London Futures market shrank by 3.4%, to 155.91 and 105.40 US cents/lb, respectively.

The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential grew 38.5% to 2.02 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential shrank 1.1% to 30.45 US cents/lb, whilst the Colombian Milds-Robustas differential also expanded 9.9% from September to October 2023, averaging 67.14 US cents/lb. Meanwhile, the Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential contracted 3.1%, reaching 28.43 US cents/lb. However, the Other Milds-Robustas and the Brazilian Naturals-Robustas differentials expanded 9.2% and 21.1%, averaging 65.12 and 36.69 US cents/lb, respectively, in October 2023.

Arbitrage, as measured between the London and New York Futures markets, widened by 13.7% to 50.51 US cents/lb in October 2023.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP remained stable at 6.3% between September and October 2023. The Colombian Milds’ and Other Milds’ volatility also increased to 6.8% and 7.6%. Meanwhile, the Brazilian Naturals’ volatility rose by 0.5 percentage points to 8.6% from September to October 2023. The Robustas presented the smallest volatility increase, with a 0.1 percentage point gain, averaging 7.5% for the month of October. The London Futures market’s volatility decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 6.7%. Lastly, the New York futures market’s volatility moved in the opposite direction to that of London, expanding by 0.4 percentage points and reaching 8.1%.

The New York and London certified stocks moved in the same downward direction, where London retracted by 7.9% to 0.67 million 60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Arabica coffee reached 0.44 million 60-kg bags, a 10.7% decrease and the lowest figure since October 2022.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in September 2023 totalled 7.8 million bags, as compared with 8.83 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 11.6%. For coffee year 2022/23, exports of green beans were down 5.5% to 110.81 million bags from 117.28 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. The global macro-economic environment was not conducive to consumer confidence in coffee year 2022/23, with global inflation and interest rates in many of the key advanced economies high and rising, increasing the cost of living and thus reducing disposable income levels for a very large section of the world.

These conditions seemingly support a downturn in the consumption of coffee and consequently in global exports of green beans. Nevertheless, the global economy was not only projected to expand in calendar year 2023, but the outlook was also raised between April–October 2023 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which suggests otherwise. The drop in global exports of green beans in coffee year 2022/23 may therefore lie more with logistics/the supply chain than the economy and actual consumption of coffee. Average green bean exports amounted to 118.13 million bags in coffee years 2018/19–2021/22, as compared with an average 109.59 million bags for coffee years 2014/15–2017/18, a jump of 8.54 million bags. This suggests a build-up of stocks in non-producing countries which have been heavily drawn down in the past 12 months.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 13.1% in September 2023 to 1.57 million bags from 1.8 million bags in the same period last year. For coffee year 2022/23, exports of the Other Milds were down 12.1% to 22.11 million bags from 25.16 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals decreased in September 2023, falling by 13.4% to 2.69 million bags. For coffee year 2022/23, exports of the Brazilian Naturals were down 8.5% to 34.17 million bags from 37.33 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. Exports of the Colombian Milds increased by 6.7% to 0.87 million bags in September 2023 from 0.82 million bags in September 2022. For coffee year 2022/23, exports of the Colombian Milds were down 11.2% to 10.77 million bags from 12.14 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. For coffee year 2022/23, total green bean exports of the Arabicas were down 10.1% to 67.05 million bags from 74.63 million bags in coffee year 2021/22.

Overall, for the Arabicas, exports were seemingly negatively affected by the drawdown of stocks in consuming countries, with buyers staying away from the markets in coffee year 2022/23. Furthermore, substitution towards the more competitively priced Robustas, induced by the increased cost of living and reduced disposable income, would have also added to the downturn (see Green Coffee Price).

Exports of the Colombian Milds fell below the 11.0 million bags mark for the first time since coffee year 2012/13. These exports were primarily driven by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, and weather-related disruption affected supply throughout most of coffee year 2022/23. Indeed, Colombia’s green bean exports contracted for the first 11 months of coffee year 2022/23, with only September 2023 showing an expansion. Figures for the year show that, overall, the country’s exports declined 13.1% to 9.42 million bags, the first time they have dropped below 10.0 million bags since coffee year 2013/14.

Green bean exports of the Robustas amounted to 2.67 million bags in September 2023, as compared with 3.09 million bags in September 2022, down 13.8%. For coffee year 2022/23, exports of the Robustas were up 2.6% to 43.76 million bags from 42.66 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. Of the four groups of coffee, the Robustas were the only group to experience positive growth in coffee year 2022/23, benefitting from macro-economic-induced substitution away from less competitively priced Arabicas.

The September 2023 exports represent the lowest September volume for the Robustas since the 2.58 million bags shipped in 2012 and were a result of the 43.4% decrease in exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest producer and exporter of the group, which only shipped 0.81 million bags – the lowest September exports since 2008 (0.79 million bags). Vietnam has been struggling with supply since the start of Q4 of coffee year 2022/23, when very low in-origin stock levels were reported at a time when the start of the harvest still remained three to four months away. The low September 2023 export levels appear to be a continuation of the industry’s deepening struggle with supply issues.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In September 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 3.4% to 4.74 million bags. For coffee year 2022/23, the region’s exports were down 11.0% to 50.59 million bags from 56.83 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. The region’s two largest producers and exporters, Brazil and Colombia, saw their total exports fall by 7.9% and 12.8%, respectively. South America’s fortunes are closely tied to the fortunes of the Arabicas and many of the same factors that explain the latter’s double-digit fall also explain the former’s. After all, from coffee year 2018/19 to 2022/23, 93.2% of the total green bean exports from South America were Arabicas, on average. The drawdown of stocks in consuming countries and substitution towards the Robustas are the two main factors. Two specific and additional factors are that (i) Brazil’s export performance was poor due to its relatively limited supply following two consecutive years of below-par harvests; and (ii) Colombia struggled with weather-impacted supply conditions that negatively affected the origin’s export volume.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 1.9% to 1.21 million bags in September 2023 from 1.23 million bags in September 2022. For coffee year 2022/23, the region’s exports were down 1.4% to 13.53 million bags from 13.73 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. The relatively strong global demand for Robustas was the fundamental source of Africa’s positive export growth rate in coffee year 2022/23. Moreover, particularly during Q4 of coffee year 2022/23, the reduced volume of exports from the Asia and Oceania region, and more pointedly from Vietnam, strengthened Africa’s own export performance. Uganda, the largest producer and exporter of Robusta coffee in Africa, took the opportunity to fill the gap in the market left by Vietnam and the Asia and Oceania region as a whole.

In September 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 9.2% to 0.74 million bags as compared with 0.81 million bags in September 2022. For coffee year 2022/23, the region’s exports were down 3.1% to 15.3 million bags from 15.78 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. The downturn was primarily driven by Guatemala and Mexico, which suffered 11.5% and 16.5% decreases, respectively. However, the mitigating factor that limited the region’s fall in exports to a low single-digit decrease was Honduras’ 13.5% increase.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania decreased by 35.7% to 1.91 million bags in September 2023 as compared with 2.98 million bags in September 2022. For coffee year 2022/23, the region’s exports were down 0.9% to 43.56 million bags from 43.95 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. Asia and Oceania’s fortunes are closely tied to the fortunes of the Robustas and many of the same factors that explain the latter’s single-digit increase also explain the former’s. From coffee year 2018/19 to 2022/23, 89.1% of the total green bean exports from Asia & Oceania were Robustas, on average. In coffee year 2022/23, Vietnam’s exports were up 0.4% to 28.29 million bags from 28.19 million bags in coffee year 2021/22.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 27.3% in September 2023 to 0.75 million bags from 1.03 million bags in September 2022. For coffee year 2022/23, soluble coffee exports were down 5.7% to 11.47 million bags from 12.16 million bags in coffee year 2021/22.

Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee for the year to date was 8.7% in September 2023, down from 10.4% for the same period a year ago. For coffee year 2022/23, soluble coffee’s share of the total exports was 9.3%, the same as in coffee year 2021/22. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, having shipped 0.27 million bags in September 2023 and 3.77 million bags in coffee year 2022/23.

Exports of roasted beans were down 26.7% in September 2023 to 55,203 bags, as compared with 75,355 bags in September 2022. For coffee year 2022/23, roasted coffee exports were down 16.0% to 0.71 million bags from 0.84 million bags in coffee year 2021/22.

Production and Consumption
Under the current circumstances, the estimates and outlook of production and consumption for coffee years 2021/22 and 2022/23 remain the same.

World coffee production decreased by 1.4% to 168.5 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, hampered by the off-biennial production and negative meteorological conditions in a number of key origins. However, it is expected to bounce back by 1.7% to 171.3 million bags in 2022/23. Increased global fertiliser costs and adverse weather conditions are expected to partially offset the positive impact of biennial production from Brazil, explaining the relatively low rate of growth in coffee year 2022/23.

The impact of biennial production is anticipated to drive the outlook for Arabica, which is projected to increase by 4.6% to 98.6 million bags in coffee year 2022/23, following a 7.2% decrease in the previous coffee year. Reflecting its cyclical output, Arabica’s share of the total coffee production is expected to increase to 57.5% from 55.9% in coffee year 2021/22. South America is and will remain the largest producer of coffee in the world, despite suffering from the largest drop in output for almost 20 years, which fell by 7.6% in coffee year 2021/22. The recovery in coffee year 2022/23, partly driven by biennial production, is expected to push the region’s output to 82.4 million bags, a rise of 6.2%.

World coffee consumption increased by 4.2% to 175.6 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, following a 0.6% rise the previous year. Release of the pent-up demand built up during the Covid-19 years and sharp global economic growth of 6.0% in 2021 explains the sharp bounce back in coffee consumption in coffee year 2021/22. Decelerating world economic growth rates for 2022 and 2023, coupled with the dramatic rise in the cost of living, will have an impact on the coffee consumption for coffee year 2022/23. It is expected to grow, but at a decelerating rate of 1.7% to 178.5 million bags. The global deceleration is expected to come from non-producing countries, with Europe’s coffee consumption predicted to suffer the largest decrease among all regions, with growth rates falling to 0.1% in coffee year 2022/23 from a 6.0% expansion in coffee year 2021/22.

As a result, the world coffee market is expected to run another year of deficit, a shortfall of 7.3 million bags.

The outlook is taken from the newest publication of the Statistics Section of the Secretariat of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Coffee Report and Outlook (CRO). To download the full CRO or for more information, visit the ICO website: icocoffee.org.

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This winter, Lavazza is taking coffee enthusiasts on a journey through the warmth and wonder of the holidays with their specially crafted Holiday Blend that offers notes of toasted almond and warm spice to capture the essence of the season. The Holiday Blend combines the rich, aromatic flavors of Lavazza’s premium coffee beans with the charm of Rifle Paper Co.’s signature illustrations.

“Lavazza has always been committed to delivering the finest coffee experiences, and this partnership with Rifle Paper Co. allowed us to create a blend that captures the essence of the season,” shared Jonathan Lehr, marketing director for Lavazza North America, Inc. “The Holiday Blend is a true celebration of craftsmanship, artistry, and the joy that a great cup of coffee can bring.”

The blend will be available for $9.99 in select retail partners including Target, Eataly and Epicerie Boulud for a limited time, while supplies last. It will also be available online for shipping nationwide at www.lavazzausa.com, www.riflepaperco.com and on Amazon.

“We are excited to partner with the iconic Italian coffee brand Lavazza to design their Holiday Blend this year,” shared Anna Bond, Rifle Paper Co. co-founder & CCO. “When designing the artwork, we were inspired by nostalgic holiday gatherings at home with family and friends, festive city decorations, and even included a subtle nod to Lavazza’s heritage with a row of brownstones in the colors of the Italian flag. We hope the collaboration inspires small moments of joy during the holiday season.”

For more information on Lavazza, visit www.lavazzausa.com  or @lavazzausa. For more information on Rifle Paper Co., please visit www.riflepaperco.com  or @riflepaperco.

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The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that world coffee consumption increased by 4.2 percent to 175.6 million bags (60kg) in c offee year 2021/22 and by a further 1.7 percent to 178.3 million bags in 2022/23.

This increase in consumption, the ICO noted, is expected to trigger another year of deficit in the world market with an estimated shortfall of 7.3 million bags in coffee year 2022/23.

According to the ICO, Africa and Asia and Oceania’s consumption would expand by the most, increasing by 4.1 percent and 3.1 percent to 13.4 million bags and 44.2 million bags respectively. The two regions’ shares of world coffee consumption would, as a result, grow to 7.5 percent and 24.7 percent, respectively.

As consumption grows, coffee producers are endeavouring to sustain or improve the flavour of their coffee, especially during the post-harvest processing phase to satisfy the taste and volume demand of consumers. One of the trends that has recently gained traction among coffee producers is co-fermentation of coffee.

Image: Lucia Solis

What is Coffee Co-Fermentation?

US-based green coffee company, Ally Coffee, which connects roasters with specialty coffees sourced through sustainable partnerships, said these co-fermented coffees “offer distinct cup profiles defined greatly by added flavour agents in the fermentation process, imparting difficult-if-not-impossible to achieve flavours to the coffee.”

Ally Coffee, through its Ally Open, a platform for roasters to purchase a curated selection of mall-box specialty green coffee, said some of the coffee producers complete the processing of their crop with little-to-no additives leaving the fermentation process to the naturally occurring microbes and sugars from the coffee cherries.

However, there are others who “have adopted the use of extra ingredients during processing to achieve a number of results including batch consistency, labour efficiency, and differentiated flavour profiles.”

Co-fermentation, explained Joseph Rivera, senior research scientist at Ireland-based public food company, Kerry Group, is an emerging trend that could give coffee farmers control over their coffee fermentation “by intentionally infusing commercially available yeasts, such as Saccharomyces cerevisiae, commonly used in wine and baking to allow a more uniform colonisation of microbes in their tanks.”

Moreover, there is an increasing interest in co-fermenting coffee with fruits and spices such as orange peels, peaches, pineapples, cinnamon, and hops, among other additives.

“The addition of these non-coffee products alters the natural biome in the fermentation tank, introducing new flavours compounds such as terpenes, oils, ester, to ultimately create more complex flavours than traditional coffee fermentations,” added Rivera.

The putting of additives in the fermentation tank/bag, stated Vietnam’s processing and export firm, Helena Coffee, “will help control fermentation by providing sugar for existing microorganisms.” Furthermore, “it also enriches the microflora of the solution or changes its pH and thus regulates the type of microorganisms that will be active during the fermentation process,” Helena stated in a blog.

The co-fermentation process begins soon after harvesting of the coffee with farmers utilising either the washed or dry post-harvest process.

In the washed coffee, the coffee cherry is mechanically de-pulped thus removing the outer layer of skin or exocarp and exposes the encased coffee bean. The encasing of a thin sticky layer of mucilage must be removed to release the bean or endosperm locked inside the cherry.

The conventional method of removing the mucilage is placing the de-pulped coffee into a tank of water and allowing it to sit for 8-24 hours and in some extreme cases, up to 72 hours, explained Rivera. “Due to the presence of yeasts and bacteria naturally found on the surface of the cherry, the tank becomes inoculated whereby microbes begin to consume the sugar in the solution to create a wide host of acids, aldehydes and esters, hence driving the pH of the surrounding solution down and, along with the
pectinases, help dissolve the sticky mucilage off de-pulped coffee.”

Co-Fermented Coffee Challenges

The potential of allergens in co-fermented coffee has dominated discussion within the coffee industry, with some stakeholders suggesting more transparency when it comes to labelling co-fermented coffee.

“For the most part, co-fermenting does not introduce allergens into the fermentation stage,” said Rivera, “however, there have been reports of farmers experimenting with co-fermenting with ‘milk’ (here I’m broadly speaking of cow’s milk, but can also include almond, coconut, soy).”

There is a possibility, he added, of the non- coffee additives introducing allergens, although these novel fermentations have generally been confined to small scale research and development experiments.

Even if there were allergens, such as lactose and nut proteins present in the coffee, “we need to remember that coffee is roasted to ~200-250°C (~392- 482° F) during roasting, which effectively provides a potent ‘kill-step’ thereby rendering any, if not all, of any allergens inactive,” Rivera reminded.

The lack of consensus on allergens in co-fermented coffee is an indicator of existing concerns within the coffee industry that need to be addressed to ensure the safety of coffee
consumers.

Elsewhere, there exists a vacuum when it comes to approved standards on the labelling of co-fermented coffee that makes achieving transparency more challenging. But even then, some in the coffee sector are pushing for a little more clarity on all ingredients in co-fermented coffee.

“The Specialty Coffee Association (SCA), a non- legal organisation, has stated that co-fermented coffees will not be allowed in the barista competitions and must be clearly labelled if a non-coffee product has been added,” Riviera shared. He cited the most recent World Barista Competition rules and regulations which rule out coffee having any “additives, flavourings, colourings, perfumes, aromatic substances, liquids, powders, etc, of any kind added at any point between the time the coffee is picked (as cherry) to when it is extracted into beverage.”

Rivera said that these are just recommendations for now, but “we could see a push to legally define
labelling requirements and standards of identity for these emerging novel coffees in the future.”

However, the position by many coffee roasters further down the supply chain is that co-fermented coffees “should be clearly labelled if any non-coffee additives have been added for both safety and transparency.”

For example, the National Coffee Association of the United States said that due to the various
formulations, flavours, and preparation methods, coffee has become more complex, making labelling
“very complicated.” In many consuming markets, including the US, failure to label coffee properly “can lead to recalls that can impact your bottom line, your brand – and even pose a threat to your
customers.”

With global coffee consumption growing, more coffee producers, roasters and even foodservice
providers are expected to be more innovative in improving the flavours of the coffee cup with
co-fermentation probably becoming a major feature in post-harvest processes but more likely in a more regularised environment.

• Shem Oirere is a freelance business journalist based in Nairobi, Kenya. He has spent more than 25 years covering various sectors of Africa’s economy including the region’s agribusiness. He holds BA in InternationalRelations and Diplomacy from the University of South Africa and earned a higher degree in journalism from the London School of Journalism and is also a member of the Association of Business Executives (ABE).

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While innovation and new/upgraded technology are always key themes, similar to most exhibitions of late, the main theme was sustainable innovation, with exhibitors touting their sustainable/eco-friendly machinery and initiatives.

For example, Cimbria’s new SEA.IQ Optical Sorter is designed to recognise all defects and imperfections. It features cameras with integrated RGB, NIR and SWIR or UV working multifrequency to match multiple data collected during thousands of scans per second.

Goglio introduced a coffee capsule equipped with a degassing valve. This design makes it possible to immediately package fresh coffee without having to wait for the degassing process, which reduces storage times and preserves the aroma of the coffee. The capsule is also available in a 100% compostable version to meet the regulations being discussed in Italy and Europe, and is already certified as industrially compostable.

Mikafi, a Swiss startup, launched its electric tabletop roasting machine at Host Milan. The founders believe that in a world where sustainability, personalisation, and quality experiences are becoming more important, coffee roasting must be ‘rethought’. Designed for the HoReCa market, and in partnership with Thermoplan, the MikafiOne is a fully automated roasting system that uses AI and IoT that offers pre-programmed roast profiles – so non-baristas or inexperienced roasters can use it – as well as customisable roast profiles. “Anyone can roast the coffee, you do not need a roast master and it frees up the barista, said co-founder and CPO, Claudio Vögtli. He shared that the MikafiOne roasts 1 kilo of coffee, which enables businesses to offer a special roast daily in addition to their standard coffee assortment.

Caffe Vergnano was highlighting its ‘Women in Coffee’, which is the company’s women-focused sustainability initiative developed by CEO Carolina Vergnano. Launched in 2018 in collaboration with the International Women’s Coffee Alliance (IWCA), the initiative is aimed at supporting women working in small coffee plantations. The initial project in 2019 focused on the Dominican Republic, followed by Honduras beginning in 2020. This year’s project is a further evolution of the Honduras initiative, which will provide equipment for the library (that was built between 2021 and 2022) and a cafeteria. Proceeds from the Women in Coffee items – all pink – that are sold online and in WIC Cafés around the world, contribute to the project. For more information or to purchase items, visit caffevergnano.com.

After being decimated during the pandemic as stay-at-home orders were implemented globally, the office coffee service (OCS) industry is making a comeback this year. At Host Milan, OCS machine manufacturers exhibited a range of products that are stylish, fully automated, offer high quality beverages, and, most importantly, are durable, easy to use and easy to maintain. Bravilor Bonamat, Rancillo and Bunn were just a few of the companies that showcased the latest in OCS technology.

The 44th edition of Host Milan will be held at fieramilano from 17 to 21 October 2025.

• Vanessa L Facenda, editor, Tea & Coffee Trade Journal.
  Keep in touch via email: vanessa@bellpublishing.com Twitter: @TCTradeJournal or LinkedIn: Tea & Coffee Trade Journal

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Green Coffee Price
The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 153.13 US cents/lb in September, posting a median value of 152.74 US cents/lb and fluctuating between 147.86 and 160.17 US cents/lb.

The Robustas remained at a near-record high in September, staying firmly above the 120.00 US cents/lb mark. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds decreased by 1.4% and 1.7%, to 184.98 and 183.52 US cents/lb, respectively, in September 2023. The Brazilian Naturals and Robustas both contracted by 0.3% and 0.6%, reaching an average of 154.19 and 123.89 US cents/lb, respectively. ICE’s New York market fell by 1.9%, whilst the London Futures market shrank by 2.0%, to 153.55 and 109.14 US cents/lb, respectively.

The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential grew 79.1% to 1.46 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential shrank 6.4% to 30.79 US cents/lb, whilst the Colombian Milds-Robustas differential also contracted 2.9% from August to September 2023, averaging 61.09 US cents/lb. Meanwhile, the Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals and the Other Milds-Robustas both contracted 8.6 and 4.0%, reaching 29.33 and 59.63 US cents/lb, respectively. However, the Brazilian Naturals-Robustas differentials expanded 0.9%, averaging 30.30 US cents/lb in September 2023.

In September 2023, the Colombian Milds-Other Milds Arabica differential fluctuated between positive and negative.

Arbitrage, as measured between the London and New York Futures markets, narrowed by 1.8% to 44.41 US cents/lb in September 2023. This marks the lowest point since October 2019, when arbitrage sat at 44.07 US cents/lb.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP followed a consistent downtrend, reaching 6.3%, a 0.7 percentage point decrease between August and September 2023. The Robustas presented the strongest volatility decrease, with a 1.3 percentage point drop, averaging 7.4% for the month of September. The Colombian Milds’ and Other Milds’ volatility also contracted to 6.5% and 6.8%. Meanwhile, the Brazilian Naturals’ volatility dropped by 0.7 percentage points to 8.1% from August to September 2023, whilst the London futures market’s volatility also decreased by 2.1 to 7.3%. Lastly, the New York futures market’s volatility moved in the same direction as London, retracting by 0.9 percentage points and reaching 7.7% for New York.

The New York and London certified stocks moved in opposite directions, where London grew 25.7% to 0.73 million 60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Arabica coffee reached 0.49 million 60-kg bags, a 13.8% decrease.

The absence of market participants, as evidenced by the falling exports (see Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans), continued to prevail over the I-CIP, explaining the overarching trajectory of the I-CIP in September. However, currency movements, market sentiments, dwindling supplies, weather and the fundamentals all played their part in the coffee price movements in September, which saw the I-CIP rally, before falling once again due to foreign exchange movements.

From 22 August to 19 September 2023, the I-CIP recovered, increasing from a low of 148.79 to 160.17 US Cents/lb, ie, an increase of 7.6%. This came on the back of reports of heavy rain in Brazil and a continued fall in the certified stocks held at the New York ICE warehouses. Somar Meteorologia, a Brazilian meteorology company, reported on 5 September that Brazil’s Minas Gerais region, the country’s largest coffee producing region, received 22.8 mm of rain in the past week, or 308% of the historical average, leading to speculation regarding a delay in the completion of Brazil’s coffee harvest. Meanwhile, ICE’s Arabica inventories fell to a low of 0.49 million bags in September. The impact of these positive factors was more profound on the prices of the Arabicas, particularly the Brazilian Naturals which rallied by 5.3% and 81.%, respectively.

Nevertheless, this rally was halted and reversed by the sharp weakening of the real against the US dollar. From 19 to 29 September the real depreciated by 3.2%, from 4.87 to 5.03, while the I-CIP fell by 7.1% over the same period. Once again, the negative impact was felt relatively more by the Arabicas (-8.1%) and particularly the Brazilian Naturals (-9.3%) as compared with Robustas (-5.9%). The price of the Robustas fell at a relatively slower rate due to Vietnam’s current dwindling supply (see Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee), with supply from the 2023/24 harvest still at least two months away in November at the earliest.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in August 2023 totalled 9.36 million bags, as compared with 9.07 million bags in the same month of the previous year, up 3.2%. As a result, the cumulative total for 2022/23 to August is 102.9 million bags, as compared with 108.26 million bags over the same period a year ago, down 5.0%.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 9.7% in August 2023 to 1.99 million bags from 2.2 million bags in the same period last year. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports continued to fall, decreasing by 12.2% in the first 11 months of coffee year 2022/23 to 20.56 million bags, versus 23.42 million bags over the same period in 2021/22.

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals increased in August 2023, rising by 10.2% to 3.06 million bags. For the first 11 months of coffee year 2022/23, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals amounted to 31.5 million bags, down 8.0% from 34.22 million bags over the same period a year ago. Changes to the fortunes of the Brazilian Naturals are mainly due to changes in Brazil’s total green bean exports, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, which also increased in August 2023 (27.6%) to 3.35 million bags from 2.63 million bags in August 2022.

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 2.1% to 0.84 million bags in August 2023 from 0.86 million bags in August 2022, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 5.6% in August 2023. This is the fourteenth consecutive month of negative growth for the Colombian Milds and, as a result, the exports of this group of coffee for October 2022 to August 2023 were down 12.5%, at 9.9 million bags, as compared with 11.32 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22.

Green bean exports of the Robustas amounted to 3.47 million bags in August 2023, as compared with 3.22 million bags in August 2022, up 7.3%. This is the fifth consecutive month of positive growth for the Robustas and, as a result, the exports of this group of coffee for October 2022 to August 2023 were up 4.2%, at 40.94 million bags, as compared with 39.31 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In August 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee increased by 13.0% to 4.98 million bags. This is the first positive growth rate for the region since the 0.3% expansion in June 2022. The source of both the positive and strength of growth is Brazil, which saw its exports increase by 24.4% to 3.67 million bags from 2.95 million bags in August 2022. More specifically, it was the Robustas from the origin, which in August increased by 388.1% to 0.7 million bags from 0.14 million bags, that drove the region’s positive growth. The August 2023 exports are Brazil’s highest on record for Robusta coffee, beating the 696,873 bags exported in December 2014.

Fundamentally, the region’s turnaround is due to the recent downturn in Asia and Oceania, especially in Vietnam, the world’s largest Robusta producer and exporter. Pointedly, Brazil is the largest producer and exporter of Robustas in South America, and it has been taking advantage of the reduced volume of Robustas coming out of Vietnam. It is pertinent to note that Brazil is the fifth biggest exporter of Robustas in the world, having shipped 1.87 million bags in coffee year 2021/22 as compared with the 25.44 million bags exported from Vietnam or the 4.89 million, 4.28 million and 4.03 million bags from Uganda, India and Indonesia, respectively, the second, third and fourth largest exporters. However, in August 2023, Brazilian Robusta exports were second only to Vietnam with 1.34 million bags. To put this into perspective, in August 2023 Brazil exported the equivalent of four-and-half months’ worth of Robustas in a single month (as measured against the total Robusta exports in coffee year 2021/22).

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa increased by 10.9% to 1.37 million bags in August 2023 from 1.23 million bags in August 2022. For the first 11 months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 10.84 million bags as compared with 12.31 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, down 1.5%. This is the third consecutive month of positive growth rate for the region. The continued global demand for Robustas, as reflected in the latest cumulative positive growth rates for Robusta green bean exports, is the fundamental source of Africa’s positive export growth rate in August. However, like the situation in South America, the reduced volume from the Asia and Pacific region, and more pointedly Vietnam, explains this growth.

Uganda, the largest producer and exporter of Robusta coffee in Africa, took the opportunity to fill the gap in the market left by Vietnam, increasing its exports by 48.4% to 0.74 million bags in August 2023 from 0.5 million bags in August 2022. This represents the second largest monthly exports on record, just behind the 0.79 million bags exported in March 1973.

In August 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 2.0% to 1.23 million bags as compared with 1.26 million in August 2022. As a result, total exports are down 2.6% from October 2022 to August 2023 at 14.57 million bags, as compared with 14.96 million bags for the same period a year ago. The relatively shallow negative growth rate of the region masked the dynamic changes at the individual country level.

Two origins experienced strong positive growth rates (Honduras and Nicaragua), with a combined 37.2% increase in August 2023, while three others experienced sharp negative growth rates (Costa Rica, Guatemala and Mexico), with a combined 20.5% decrease. Honduras and Nicaragua outperformed both the region and group of coffee (Other Milds) to which they predominantly belong in August. This may reflect their competitive edge over other origins in Mexico and Central America – the average export unit value of Arabica green beans for Honduras and Nicaragua was 157 US cents/lb for coffee years 2017/18–2021/22, while it was on average 63 US cents/lb higher for the others (excluding Cuba, Haiti and Jamaica) at 220 US cents/lb.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania decreased by 14.9% to 2.72 million bags in August 2023 and but were up 1.3% to 41.28 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2022/23. August’s downturn was mainly due to Vietnam, with exports down 23.6% to 1.44 million bags from 1.98 million bags. This is the lowest month of August exports since the 1.4 million bags shipped in 2012. The decrease can be attributed to the depletion of available supply, reflecting the strength of its exports in the first 10 month of the current coffee year, where between October 2022 and July 2023 Vietnam shipped 25.98 million bags –3.3% higher than the same period in coffee year 2017/18, a record exporting year when the origin shipped 29.73 million bags over the full year.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 4.6% in August 2023 to 0.89 million bags from 9.3 million bags in August 2022. In the first 11 months of coffee year 2022/23, a total of 10.46 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 5.7% from the 11.09 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year.

Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee for the year to date was 8.6% in August 2023, down from 9.2% for the same period a year ago. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, having shipped 0.32 million bags in August 2023.

Exports of roasted beans were down 39.9% in August 2023 to 58,226 bags, as compared with 96,937 bags in August 2022. The cumulative total for coffee year 2022/23 to June 2023 was 0.66 million bags, as compared with 0.77 million bags in same period a year ago.

Production and Consumption
Under the current circumstances, the estimates and outlook of production and consumption for coffee years 2021/22 and 2022/23 remain the same.

World coffee production decreased by 1.4% to 168.5 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, hampered by the off-biennial production and negative meteorological conditions in a number of key origins. However, it is expected to bounce back by 1.7% to 171.3 million bags in 2022/23. Increased global fertiliser costs and adverse weather conditions are expected to partially offset the positive impact of biennial production from Brazil, explaining the relatively low rate of growth in coffee year 2022/23. The impact of biennial production is anticipated to drive the outlook for Arabica, which is projected to increase by 4.6% to 98.6 million bags in coffee year 2022/23, following a 7.2% decrease in the previous coffee year.

Reflecting its cyclical output, Arabica’s share of the total coffee production is expected to increase to 57.5% from 55.9% in coffee year 2021/22. South America is and will remain the largest producer of coffee in the world, despite suffering from the largest drop in output for almost 20 years, which fell by 7.6% in coffee year 2021/22. The recovery in coffee year 2022/23, partly driven by biennial production, is expected to push the region’s output to 82.4 million bags, a rise of 6.2%.

World coffee consumption increased by 4.2% to 175.6 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, following a 0.6% rise the previous year. Release of the pent-up demand built up during the Covid-19 years and sharp global economic growth of 6.0% in 2021 explains the sharp bounce back in coffee consumption in coffee year 2021/22. Decelerating world economic growth rates for 2022 and 2023, coupled with the dramatic rise in the cost of living, will have an impact on the coffee consumption for coffee year 2022/23. It is expected to grow, but at a decelerating rate of 1.7% to 178.5 million bags. The global deceleration is expected to come from non-producing countries, with Europe’s coffee consumption predicted to suffer the largest decrease among all regions, with growth rates falling to 0.1% in coffee year 2022/23 from a 6.0% expansion in coffee year 2021/22.

As a result, the world coffee market is expected to run another year of deficit, a shortfall of 7.3 million bags.

The outlook is taken from the newest publication of the Statistics Section of the Secretariat of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Coffee Report and Outlook (CRO). The full CRO can be downloaded from the ICO website: icocoffee.org. For further information, contact the Statistics Section at stats@ico.org.

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The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 154.53 US cents/lb in August, posting a median value of 152.10 US cents/lb and fluctuating between 148.79 and 163.62 US cents/lb.

The Colombian Milds-Other Milds decreased by 1.6% and 3.5%, to 187.55 and 186.73 US cents/lb, respectively, in August 2023. Accentuated by a greater falling rate, the Other Milds fell back below the Colombian Milds. The Brazilian Naturals-Robustas both contracted by 3.0% and 2.3%, reaching an average of 154.66 and 124.62 US cents/lb, respectively. ICE’s New York market fell by 1.9%, whilst the London Futures market shrank by 2.0 % to 156.56 and 111.34 US cents/lb, respectively.

The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential pivoted from –2.91 to 0.82 US cents/lb, returning to the positive after an inverted differential in July 2023. On the one hand, the Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential grew 5.8% to 32.89 US cents/lb, whilst the Colombian Milds-Robustas differential contracted 0.1% from July to August 2023, averaging 62.93 US cents/lb. Meanwhile, the Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals, Other Milds-Robustas and Brazilian Naturals-Robustas differentials contracted by 5.7, 5.8 and 5.9%, reaching 32.07, 62.11 and 30.04 US cents/lb, respectively.

In August 2023, the Colombian Milds-Other Milds Arabica differential had been narrowing considerably and, after thirty-four business days of negative differentials, this trend was reversed on 10th August. The Colombian Milds-Other Milds Arabica differential closed August on a one-month high, though it has not reached such positive lows in four and a half years. In late July and August 2023, the Arabicas-Robusta price movements recoupled, moving once again in tandem. Since April 2023, the price movements of the Arabicas and Robusta were decoupled under price substitution-related pressure, where demand for higher-end qualities has waned in favour of more competitively-priced coffees. However, the recoupling appears to indicate that the price differentials are now sufficiently narrow, and relative price-driven changes in demand (Arabica versus Robusta) may have come to an end.

Arbitrage, as measured between the London and New York Futures markets, narrowed by 1.6% to 45.23 US cents/lb in August 2023. This marks the lowest point since June 2020, where arbitrage sat at 44.73 US cents/lb.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP followed a consistent downtrend, reaching 7.0%, a 0.8 percentage point decrease between July and August 2023. The Other Milds presented the strongest volatility decrease, with a 3.7 percentage point drop, averaging 7.3% for the month of August. The Colombian Milds’ and Brazilian Naturals’ volatility also contracted to 7.5% and 8.8%. Meanwhile, the Robustas’ volatility dropped by 2.3 percentage points to 8.7% from July to August 2023, whilst the London futures market’s volatility increased by 0.2 to 9.4%. However, the New York futures market’s volatility moved in the opposite direction from London, retracting by 0.5 percentage points and reaching 8.6% for New York.

The New York and London certified stocks decreased in tandem by 3.0% and 34.6%, respectively, closing in at 0.57 million 60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 0.58 million 60-kg bags, the lowest in over 20 years.

Downward pressure on prices could be attributed to the lack of aggressive buying of green coffee through the world. Indeed, for the current and previous coffee years (2021/22 and 2022/23), a combined underproduction of 14.4 million 60-kg bags is estimated. At present, there is an apparent decoupling between consumption and exports. There is little evidence of the former falling, while the latter for the current coffee year is down 5.7%. A plausible explanation could be the drawing down of stocks. During the Covid-19 pandemic, buyers, roasters and traders would have built up large stocks of coffee that must now be utilised before they perish. This may help to explain why exports are falling, coffee year on coffee year, thus applying negative pressure on the I-CIP. The broad drawdown of stocks is perhaps, further illustrated by the historic lows of the ICE stocks.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in July 2023 totalled 9.31 million bags, as compared with 9.3 million bags in the same month of the previous year, up 0.1%. As a result, the cumulative total for 2022/23 to July is 93.56 million bags versus 99.2 million bags over the same period a year ago, down 5.7%.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 13.7% in July 2023 to 2.20 million bags from 2.55 million bags in the same period last year. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports continued to fall, decreasing by 12.2% in the first 10 months of coffee year 2022/23 to 18.64 million bags versus 21.22 million bags over the same period in 2021/22.

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals increased in July 2023, rising by 2.8% to 2.6 million bags. For the first 10 months of coffee year 2022/23, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals amounted to 28.4 million bags, down 9.7% from 31.45 million bags over the same period a year ago. Changes to the fortunes of the Brazilian Naturals are mainly due to changes in Brazil’s total green bean exports, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, which also increased in July 2023 (10.8%) to 2.7 million bags from 2.43 million bags in July 2022.

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 8.1% to 0.93 million bags in July 2023 from 1.01 million bags in July 2022, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 16.0% in July 2023. This is the thirteenth consecutive month of negative growth for the Colombian Milds and, as a result, the exports of this group of coffee for October 2022 to July 2023 were down 12.9%, at 9.11 million bags from 10.46 million bags in the first 10 months of coffee year 2021/22.

Green bean exports of the Robustas amounted to 3.59 million bags in July 2023, as compared with 3.22 million bags in July 2022, up 11.6%. This is the fourth consecutive month of positive growth for the Robustas and, as a result, the exports of this group of coffee for October 2022 to July 2023 were up 3.8%, at 37.45 million bags, as compared with 36.08 million bags in the first 10 months of coffee year 2021/22.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In July 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 2.2% to 4.16 million bags, mainly driven by Colombia and Peru, which saw their exports fall by 17.1% and 37.5%, respectively. For Colombia, the latest downturn is the thirteenth consecutive month of negative growth, the second longest since the 22-month long streak observed between July 2008 and March 2010. As a result, Colombia’s exports for the first 10 months of coffee year 2022/23 are down to 8.79 million bags, the lowest level over the same 10-month period since coffee year 2012/13, when 7.24 million bags of coffee were shipped from the origin. Issues with local production, caused by meteorological factors, were the reason behind the downturn in exports for much of the current coffee year.

However, since June 2023, price substitution appears to be the main driver of the downturn in exports, with demand switching between the Arabicas, away from the Colombian Milds, of which Colombia is the largest producer, to the Other Milds. In Peru, the weather also played a part in the sharp decrease in exports. The Peruvian National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI) reported that increased rainfall was behind the 1.9% decrease in production in June 2023, which may have filtered through to exports as a reduced availability of supply. However, the magnitude of the decrease in July 2023 is a more reflection of the 64.7% increase in July 2022 – the largest volume of July exports in the last 10 years (0.4 million bags versus an average 0.34 million bags (2013-2022)).

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 1.1% to 1.37 million bags in July 2023 from 1.39 million bags in July 2022. For the first 10 months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 10.84 million bags as compared with 11.27 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, down 3.8%. Once again, however, the relatively shallow negative growth rate of the region masked the dynamic changes at the individual country level. Two origins experienced strong positive growth rates (Tanzania and Uganda), with a combined 23.6% increase in July 2023, while two others experienced sharp negative growth rates (Côte d’Ivoire and Ethiopia), with a combined 26.7% decrease. In Ethiopia, contract disputes arising out of a mismatch between the local purchasing prices and the global market prices continue to negatively impact the volume exports, with exporters withholding the coffee until the disputes are resolved. Uganda’s exports increased by 12.0% in July, which were driven by a good crop harvest in South-Western region, and exporters releasing their stocks.

In July 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were up 9.4% to 1.66 million bags as compared with 1.51 million in July 2022. As a result, total exports are down 1.8% for October 2022-July 2023 at 13.46 million bags, as compared with 13.71 million bags in the same period a year ago. Honduras was the main driver of the positive growth in July 2023.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania decreased by 6.2% to 3.01 million bags in July 2023 and but were up 2.7% to 38.57 million bags in the first 10 months of coffee year 2022/23. July’s downturn was due to the top four origins of the region, India (-3.5%), Indonesia (-9.7%), Papua New Guinea (-25.9%) and Vietnam (5.1%).

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 16.6% in July 2023 to 0.84 million bags from 1.0 million bags in July 2022. In the first 10 months of coffee year 2022/23, a total of 9.58 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 5.7% from the 10.16 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee for the year to date was 9.2% in July 2023, which matched the year-ago period. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 0.31 million bags in July 2023.

Exports of roasted beans were down 12.7% in July 2023 to 57,299 bags, as compared with 65,601 bags in July 2022. The cumulative total for coffee year 2022/23 to June 2023 was 0.6 million bags, as compared with 0.67 million bags in same period a year ago.

Production and Consumption
Under the current circumstances, the estimates and outlook of production and consumption for coffee years 2021/22 and 2022/23 remain the same. World coffee production decreased by 1.4% to 168.5 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, hampered by the off-biennial production and negative meteorological conditions in a number of key origins. However, it is expected to bounce back by 1.7% to 171.3 million bags in 2022/23.

Increased global fertiliser costs and adverse weather conditions are expected to partially offset the positive impact of biennial production from Brazil, explaining the relatively low rate of growth in coffee year 2022/23. The impact of biennial production is anticipated to drive the outlook for Arabica, which is projected to increase by 4.6% to 98.6 million bags in coffee year 2022/23, following a 7.2% decrease in the previous coffee year. Reflecting its cyclical output, Arabica’s share of the total coffee production is expected to increase to 57.5% from 55.9% in coffee year 2021/22. South America is and will remain the largest producer of coffee in the world, despite suffering from the largest drop in output for almost 20 years, which fell by 7.6% in coffee year 2021/22. The recovery in coffee year 2022/23, partly driven by biennial production, is expected to push the region’s output to 82.4 million bags, a rise of 6.2%.

World coffee consumption increased by 4.2% to 175.6 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, following a 0.6% rise the previous year. Release of the pent-up demand built up during the Covid-19 years and sharp global economic growth of 6.0% in 2021 explains the sharp bounce back in coffee consumption in coffee year 2021/22.

Decelerating world economic growth rates for 2022 and 2023, coupled with the dramatic rise in the cost of living, will have an impact on the coffee consumption for coffee year 2022/23. It is expected to grow, but at a decelerating rate of 1.7% to 178.5 million bags. The global deceleration is expected to come from non-producing countries, with Europe’s coffee consumption predicted to suffer the largest decrease among all regions, with growth rates falling to 0.1% in coffee year 2022/23 from a 6.0% expansion in coffee year 2021/22.

As a result, the world coffee market is expected to run another year of deficit, a shortfall of 7.3 million bags.

The outlook is taken from the newest publication of the Statistics Section of the Secretariat of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Coffee Report and Outlook (CRO). For the full report, visit: icocoffee.org.

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CropConex is a value chain management platform bringing the coffee trade ecosystem online, with tools to streamline operations and de-risk trade. The platform empowers buyers, sellers, and exporters to grow together, by making value chains traceable, efficient, and accessible. Starting in Ethiopia, this New York based startup seeks to unlock greater efficiency in global trade, increasing access and prosperity for all. Visit the website to learn more.

The CropConex marketplace launched this summer, presenting coffees from reliable Ethiopian suppliers to the North American market in an e-commerce system designed for international agricultural trade. An open marketplace with validated listings, efficient communication, and secure and compliant transactions can build greater confidence in direct trade participation across different sizes and levels of experience in both buyers and sellers.

The digital system tracks every step in the sales and logistics process, from sampling to ordering to delivery, and reports progress in an easy-to-use portal. This workflow enables open communications between suppliers, buyers, and logistics service providers throughout the entire process, cultivating a deeper level of transparency and traceability in the specialty coffee supply chain.

CropConex’s marketplace currently offers:
• A diverse catalog of Ethiopian coffees.
• Access to greater volume flexibility than traditional channels.
• A commercial airline partnership with groundbreaking air-shipping rates from Ethiopia at under USD $1.30/lb.
• Real-time data updates and feedback as coffee moves through the supply chain.
• On-the-ground team presence and quality controls at origin.

How the platform works for coffee buyers:
• Browse the marketplace and request samples for coffees of interest.
• Provide sample feedback and enter price negotiations directly with suppliers.
• Secure contracts, payment and export logistics within the platform.
• Receive quality checks, shipment status updates and final delivery within weeks.

Brianna Dickey, founder and CEO of CropConex, developed the platform to unlock greater access, equitability and economic potential in the international coffee trade market. The company plans to offer education on existing and future ecosystems of trade. They encourage discourse on the distributed rights to growth and the mutual benefits found in collective progress.

Tackling the complexities in current trading between Ethiopia and the United States, CropConex worked with the Ministry of Trade and Regional Integration offices, the Coffee and Tea Authority, the Ministry of Innovation and Technology, and the Ethiopian Investment Commissioner to finalize the legal incorporation of e-commerce into their business registration codes. On 11 November 2022 CropConex was licensed as the first E-Commerce Platform Operator business in the nation. They are working to expand their operation to other countries in the near future.

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Consolidated net revenues were USD $9.2 billion, an increase of 12% from the prior year, or 14%, inclusive of more than 1% unfavourable impact from foreign currency translation.

The Seattle, Washington-based company disclosed that global comparable-store sales increased 10%, primarily driven by a 5% increase in comparable transactions and a 4% increase in average ticket. North America and U.S. comparable-store sales increased 7%, driven by a 6% increase in average ticket and a 1% increase in comparable transactions. International comp-store sales increased 24%, driven by a 21% increase in comparable transactions and a 2% increase in average ticket. Within China, comp-store sales surged 46%, driven by a 48% increase in comparable transactions and a 1% decline in average ticket.

GAAP operating margin of 17.3% increased from 15.9% in the prior year, primarily driven by sales leverage, pricing and productivity improvement. This expansion was partially offset by previously committed investments in labour, including enhanced store partner wages and benefits and higher general and administrative costs related to Starbucks’ Reinvention Plan. GAAP earnings per share of $0.99 grew 25% over the prior year.

Non-GAAP operating margin of 17.4% increased from 16.9% in the prior year. Non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.00 grew 19% over prior year

Net revenues for the North America segment grew 11% over Q3 FY22 to $6.7 billion in Q3 FY23, primarily driven by a 7% increase in company-operated comparable store sales, driven by a 6% increase in average ticket and a 1% increase in comparable transactions, net new company-operated store growth of 4% over the past 12 months, as well as strength in our licensed store sales.

Operating income increased to $1.5 billion in Q3 FY23 compared to $1.3 billion in Q3 FY22. Operating margin of 21.7% contracted from 22.0% in the prior year, primarily driven by previously committed investments in labour, including enhanced store partner wages and benefits as well as increased spending on partner training. This contraction was partially offset by strategic pricing, productivity improvement and sales leverage.

Net revenues for the International segment grew 24% over Q3 FY22 to $2.0 billion in Q3 FY23, primarily driven by a 24% increase in comparable store sales, net new company-operated store growth of 11% over the past 12 months, as well as growth in our licensed store revenue including higher product sales and royalty revenues. These increases were partially offset by approximately 5% unfavourable impact from foreign currency translation.

Operating income increased to $374.5 million in Q3 FY23 compared to $135.3 million in Q3 FY22. Operating margin of 19.0% expanded from 8.5% in the prior year, primarily driven by sales leverage including lapping mobility restrictions in China and prior year amortization expenses. This expansion was offset by digital investments and inflationary pressures.
Net revenues for the Channel Development segment decreased 6% over Q3 FY22 to $448.8 million in Q3 FY23, driven by a decline in revenue in the Global Coffee Alliance.

Operating income increased to $208.0 million in Q3 FY23 compared to $191.7 million in Q3 FY22. Operating margin of 46.3% expanded from 40.0% in the prior year, primarily driven by growth in our North American Coffee Partnership joint venture income and mix shift.

Noting the results, Laxman Narasimhan, CEO, said, “Our strong third quarter results point to all-around momentum in the business and reflect the significant progress we are making against our Reinvention Plan. Our results were also amplified by the distinctive competitive advantages that set us apart in the market.”

Starbucks opened 588 net new stores in Q3, crossing the 37,000 store count threshold globally, ending the period with 37,222 stores: 51% company-operated and 49% licensed. At the end of Q3, stores in the U.S. and China comprised 61% of the company’s global portfolio, with 16,144 and 6,480 stores in the U.S. and China, respectively.

Starbucks Rewards loyalty program 90-day active members in the U.S. increased to 31.4 million, up 15% year-over-year.

In May, Starbucks opened the first store in Paraguay, entering the 24th market in Latin America and the Caribbean and 86th market globally. The company also opened its first store in Rome, in May, in partnership with Percassi, its Italian licensee partner. In June, the company announced plans to expand their farm capability beyond coffee to include a new sustainability learning and innovation lab at Hacienda Alsacia in Costa Rica, the global agronomy headquarters for research and development.

Starbucks executives said the company’s financial results and long-term growth model will continue to be driven by new store openings, comparable store sales growth and operating margin management.

Rachel Ruggeri, CFO, commented, “I am pleased with our third quarter performance, which beat our expectations, including our International segment. Our performance was bolstered by the progress we are making against our strategies, specifically our Reinvention Plan, and its unfolding into tangible financial results, as we delivered earnings growth of 19% well above our revenue growth of 12%.” She added, “the momentum we have built and strength we are seeing globally, gives us the confidence and optimism to close our fiscal year strong.”

Seeking Alpha analyst Dilantha De Silva stated that he is skeptical of Starbucks’ “ambitious plan to achieve 7%-9% annual comparable-store sales growth through fiscal 2025.” However, he did note that the company has room to grow in the U.S., especially in smaller cities that have yet to be explored by the coffee chain. He added, “China is considered one of the biggest markets for tea, but there are clear signs of a growing coffee culture in the country. This is an opportunity for Starbucks.”

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In the National Coffee Association’s (NCA) July webinar, RTD Coffee: Category Performance & Innovation, presenter Gary Hemphill of Beverage Marketing Corporation, said that the total U.S. beverage performance experienced strong dollar growth, although volume has increasingly softened due to inflation. However, niche categories like ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee continued to outpace traditional mass-market categories, although performance varies widely by segment.

Hemphill noted that most large mass market refreshment beverage categories have struggled while niche categories have experienced growth. RTD coffee is a good example of a niche category that has experienced strong growth. He explained that the coffee category is unique in that it is one of the large traditional beverage categories that has been experiencing growth in recent years but was slowed by the pandemic and now inflation. “Total coffee category growth in all formats has generally ranged from 1% to 2% through 2019 with the exception of a pandemic-driven dip in 2020 and a more sizeable dip in 2022 caused by higher prices.”

RTD coffee had experienced high accelerating volume growth until a slowdown in 2022. The partnership of Starbucks and Pepsi has dominated the RTD coffee category – in 2022, the Starbucks and Pepsi partnership accounted for just over half the category – but competition is heating up as the category continues to grow with many smaller players entering the market with unique products or new spins on existing ones.

RTD coffee innovations are plentiful, mainly the cold-brew process, but Hemphill noted they are also occurring in areas such as packaging, use of dairy alternatives, nitrogenation, extra caffeine and value-added ingredients like protein and MCT oil. “Meaningful innovation can have a significant impact on a category’s performance. Cold brew coffee has helped to spur growth in RTD coffee,” he said adding that cold brew RTD coffee share is likely to exceed 25% of the category by 2027.

Chilled format RTD coffee has been leading the category growth in recent years. And while the chilled grab ‘n go (single-serve) format continues to be a strong performer, Hemphill said multi-serve containers of chilled coffee sold through take-home channels have performed especially well.

Furthermore, although the RTD coffee category is dominated by single-serve bottles and cans, there is now a shift to multi-serve sizes. This trend was accelerated by the pandemic with more people at home in 2020 and 2021.

Curiously, once dominated by cans and glass, plastic has emerged as a key package for RTD coffee. Hemphill pointed out that glass is still the most popular package but has lost share in recent years.

Within the refreshment beverage category, Beverage Marketing Corp forecasts the strongest growth in 2023 for energy drinks with bottled water, carbonated soft drinks and RTD coffee likely to increase slightly.

Hemphill sees prospects for RTD coffee growth with products offering functional/health benefits and even in the no-alcohol shot category. “Energy shots still dominate the market but have experienced soft performance in recent years. It is an area to watch as the opportunity is there for coffee.”

• Vanessa L Facenda, editor, Tea & Coffee Trade Journal.
  Keep in touch via email: vanessa@bellpublishing.com Twitter: @TCTradeJournal or LinkedIn: Tea & Coffee Trade Journal

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Coffee grew 5%, primarily driven by the strong performance of Costa® coffee in the United Kingdom and China. Tea grew 1%, primarily driven by growth in Latin America, partially offset by a decline in doğadan® in Türkiye. North America unit case volume declined 1%, as growth in sparkling flavours and juice, value-added dairy and plant-based beverages was more than offset by declines in water, sports, coffee and tea as well as Trademark Coca-Cola®.

Net revenues grew 6% to USD $12.0 billion, and organic revenues (non-GAAP) grew 11%. Revenue performance included 10% growth in price/mix and 1% growth in concentrate sales. Concentrate sales were 1 point ahead of unit case volume, largely due to the timing of concentrate shipments.

Operating margin was 20.1% versus 20.7% in the prior year, while comparable operating margin (non-GAAP) was 31.6% versus 30.7% in the prior year. Operating margin decline was primarily driven by items impacting comparability and currency headwinds. Comparable operating margin (non-GAAP) expansion was primarily driven by strong topline growth and the impact of refranchising bottling operations, partially offset by an increase in marketing investments and higher operating costs versus the prior year, as well as currency headwinds.

EPS (earning per share) grew 34% to $0.59, and comparable EPS (non-GAAP) grew 11% to $0.78. Comparable EPS (non-GAAP) performance included the impact of a 6-point currency headwind.

In terms of market share, Coca-Cola gained value share in total nonalcoholic ready-to-drink (NARTD) beverages.

Cash flow from operations was $4.6 billion year-to-date, an increase of $83 million versus the prior year, driven by strong business performance and working capital initiatives, partially offset by the transition tax payment made during the second quarter. Free cash flow (non-GAAP) was $4.0 billion year-to-date, a decline of $45 million versus the prior year.

“I am encouraged that our all-weather strategy, working together with our bottling partners, has delivered strong second quarter results,” said James Quincey, chairman and CEO of Atlanta, Georgia-based The Coca-Cola Company. “We are executing efficiently and effectively on a local level, while maintaining flexibility on a global level. The strength of our first half results and the resiliency of our business gives us the confidence to raise our 2023 guidance.”

To support the company’s goal to reduce carbon emissions by 25% by 2030, against a 2015 baseline, The Coca-Cola Company and eight leading global bottling partners created a first-of-its-kind sustainability-focused $137.7 million venture capital fund in partnership with Greycroft, a seed-to-growth venture capital firm. The fund aligns with the company’s networked approach to sustainability and has the potential to help advance solutions across its global value chain by investing in sustainability-focused companies at the point of commercialisation. Reducing the Coca-Cola system’s carbon footprint is a top priority for the fund, so it will initially prioritise five key areas with the most potential impact: packaging, heating and cooling, facility decarbonisation, distribution and supply chain.

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Who Should Attend?

From farmers, roasters, traders, to coffee machine manufacturers and professionals – if coffee is your business, this convention is your platform. Catering to academics, industry experts, and the HORECA sector, this event promises rich insights and actionable strategies.

The Mission:

•  Understanding the Challenges: With climate change, evolving consumer habits, sustainability concerns, and digitalisation, the coffee industry is in flux. We are dedicated to charting the way forward.
• Embracing Sustainable Solutions: The convention emphasizes real, science-backed, sustainable answers to current challenges. From cultivation and trade to processing and preparation, all facets of coffee will be explored.
• Fostering Collaboration: By bringing together global experts, we aim to foster collaborative solutions. Together, we will identify challenges and propose actionable solutions.

Key Benefits:

•  Stay Updated: Grasp the current state of the coffee industry and discover how to contribute to its sustainable future.
• Knowledge Sharing: Engage with leading experts, gain hands-on solutions, and learn about cutting-edge scientific and practical approaches.
• Exclusive Content: Receive a summary of all keynotes and gain video-on-demand access to all presentations.
• Recognition and Publication: Opportunity to publish your abstract in an MDPI Biology and Life Sciences Forum special issue and compete for the Kaldi Awards in coffee science.

Highlighted Topics:

• The future of coffee cultivation in the climate change era.
• The role of biodiversity in sustainable farming.
• Adapting to evolving consumer behaviours.
• Strategies for true sustainability in coffee cultivation.
• Implications of novel food regulations for the industry.

Programme Highlights:

• 30 Sept: Congress Opening at Mannheim Baroque Palace’s historical knight’s hall, followed by a buffet.
• 1-2 Oct: Full working days with extensive sessions at the Congress Centre Rosengarten.
• 2 Oct Evening: A special Aperitif event at South America House, Luisenpark.
• 2 Oct: The event culminates with the Kaldi Award presentation and a grand closing ceremony.

Partnership Opportunities: Align your brand with a mission that emphasizes science-based, sustainable solutions for the coffee industry. Sponsorship offers a unique chance to showcase your company’s commitment to the coffee world’s sustainable future.

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Maratá’s coffee and tea business is predominantly present in the northern part of Brazil through its longstanding and well-known brands Café Maratá and Chá Maratá. The business employs around 1,200 employees, operates two manufacturing plants and sells its products through a dense and well-established distribution network.

Upon completion, the acquisition will complement JDE Peet’s’ existing portfolio of brands primarily sold in the southern regions of Brazil. The acquisition will increase JDE Peet’s’ scale and national coverage in Brazil, a market which offers compelling prospects for both volume and value growth. As a result, the acquisition offers long-term value creation potential through attractive revenue and cost synergies.

Commenting on the acquisition, Fabien Simon, CEO of JDE Peet’s, said, “Over the last three years, we have been focused on transforming JDE Peet’s into a faster growing, correctly invested, and more sustainable company. We are now ready to take the next step and continue our disciplined path of geographical expansion and diversification. I am therefore very pleased with the opportunity to buy Maratá’s well-run coffee and tea platform in Brazil, an attractive market we know well and where we have successfully made acquisitions in the past.” He noted that following its completion, “this acquisition will represent a highly complementary proposition to our existing business in Brazil, which has been building strong momentum in recent years, allowing us to serve more cups across a full range of price points and product offerings while expanding our regional presence in Brazil.”

José Augusto Vieira, founder of JAV Group, added, “Since Maratá was founded over 50 years ago, we have stayed true to our mission of providing innovative, socially responsible, and high-quality products to consumers across Brazil. I am very proud of the strong and successful coffee and tea platform we have built, and I am very pleased that by handing over our coffee and tea business to JDE Peet’s, the world’s leading pure-play coffee and tea company, we are securing the long-term development and success of this great business.”

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The new 1,660 sq ft location is the UK-based brand’s 70th with it operating across the UK as well as in Paris and Manila. From its new store at The Sidings, which opened earlier this month, Black Sheep will offer its variety of coffees – including its speciality-grade 100 percent Robusta coffee – and other food and beverages.

The launch of the new location coincides with Black Sheep Coffee introducing a new range of refreshing drinks for the summer, including a mango and dragonfruit smoothie, and a series of bubble tea drinks. It will also continue to serve its range of iced drinks, savoury and sweet treats – from toasties to its signature Norwegian waffles.

Black Sheep Coffee credited the decision to open its latest location at London’s newest destination to the mix of tourists, visitors and commuters passing through one of the UK’s busiest stations. Other brands already open at The Sidings include boutique Belgian chocolatier Neuhaus and luxury skincare brand Kiehl’s, alongside nationwide retailers Sainsbury’s and WH Smiths.

“We are delighted to be expanding to The Sidings, which is a great new development that we can’t wait to be a part of,” Eirik Holth and Gabriel Shohet, co-founders of Black Sheep Coffee.

A new pedestrianised street – Waterloo Curve – has been introduced to connect the station and The Sidings to the wider South Bank area. It has been designed to reflect the area’s creative spirit and the already iconic surrounding locations such as Leake Street Arches, Royal Festival Hall and the National Theatre.

“Black Sheep Coffee is fast developing a reputation for its quality and ability to offer something new. The Sidings, then, represents a natural next location as it continues to deliver its innovative take on coffee, food and cocktails for a mix of commuters, tourists and workers alike,” said Peter Hawthorne, CEO at LCR, the commercial developer for The Sidings. “The South Bank is London’s beating cultural heart, attracting millions of visitors every year. It is important for us that The Sidings echoes that and delivers an experience of its own. Welcoming big-name brands like Black Sheep, alongside innovative, independent operators, will only bolster that ambition.”

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