Green Coffee Price
The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 175.73 US cents/lb in December, an 8.8% increase from November 2023. The I-CIP posted a median value of 177.64 US cents/lb, having fluctuated between 163.92 and 186.04 US cents/lb. The December 2023 I-CIP is above the December 2022 I-CIP by 11.8%, with the 12-month rolling average at 165.23 US cents/lb. The I-CIP grew steadily in December 2023, reaching a nine-month high. The rise in tensions in the Red Sea has prompted some shipping lines to re-route their coffee-carrying vessels. Thus, for South-East Asian and East African coffee en route to Europe, unintended consequences include a rise in freight costs as some shipping companies have introduced surcharges to account for the now-extended transit times.

The Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased by 7.6% and 6.9%, to 210.68 and 210.76 US cents/lb, respectively, in December 2023. The Brazilian Naturals presented a growth of 9.4%, reaching an average of 185.23 US cents/lb. However, the Robustas grew the most by 10.5% to 135.47 US cents/lb, the highest level since May 1995, when they were valued at 140.90 US cents/lb. ICE’s New York market was a strong driver of the positive growth, having increased by 9.6% to 186.67 US cents/lb, whilst the London Futures market expanded by 12.2%, to 123.91 US cents/lb, also the highest level since May 1995.

Arbitrage, as measured between the London and New York Futures markets, widened by 5.0% to 62.77 US cents/lb in December 2023.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP expanded to 10.2% between November and December 2023. The Colombian Milds’ and Other Milds’ volatility also increased to 10.8% and 10.9%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Brazilian Naturals’ volatility rose by 2.9 percentage points to 12.6% from November to December 2023. The Robustas presented the smallest volatility increase, with a 0.9 percentage point gain, averaging 9.2% for the month of December. The London Futures market’s volatility increased by 2.7 percentage points to 9.1%. Lastly, the New York futures market’s volatility moved in tandem to that of London, expanding by 2.4 percentage points and reaching 10.5%.

The New York certified stocks continued on their downward trajectory, retracting by 15.0% to 0.28 million 60-kg bags, one of the lowest figures ever recorded. Certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 0.57 million 60-kg bags, a 68.4% increase since November 2023.

Exports by Coffee Groups — Green Beans
Global green bean exports in November 2023 totalled 9.79 million bags, as compared with 9.1 million bags in the same month of the previous year, up 7.6%. As a result, the cumulative total for coffee year 2023/24 to November is 18.39 million bags, as compared with 17.7 million bags over the same period a year ago, up 3.9%.

Shipments of the Other Milds increased by 17.9% in November 2023 to 1.31 million bags from 1.11 million bags in the same period last year. Peru was the main driver of the double-digit growth of this group of coffee, with the origin’s exports of the Other Milds increasing by 60.1% to 0.57 million bags in November 2023 from 0.35 million bags in November 2022, following a 28.9% increase in October 2023. The resurgence of Peru’s exports of the Other Milds is due to the return to normality of local production conditions in coffee year 2023/24 as compared with those seen in coffee year 2022/23. Irregular weather patterns negatively affected the local supply of coffee beans in 2022/23, especially in the first three months of the coffee year, when 1.15 million bags were exported. This was the lowest first three months of exports since the 0.93 million bags shipped in coffee year 2014/15, representing a 26.7% fall in the average volume of exports in coffee years 2015/16–2021/22, which was 1.57 million bags. As a result, the cumulative volume of total exports of the Other Milds also increased, jumping by 9.2% in the first two months of coffee year 2023/24 to 2.74 million bags, versus 2.51 million bags over the same period in 2022/23.

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals increased in November 2023, rising by 1.6% to 3.63 million bags. For the first two months of coffee year 2023/24, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals amounted to 7.35 million bags, up 4.0% from 7.07 million bags over the same period a year ago. The relatively shallow positive growth rate reflects the 2.6% increase in exports of the Brazilian Naturals from Brazil, the biggest producer and exporter of this group of coffee, which rose to 3.2 million bags in November 2023 from 3.12 million bags November 2022.

Exports of the Colombian Milds increased by 34.0% to 1.15 million bags in November 2023 from 0.85 million bags in November 2022, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were up 35.6% in November 2023. As a result, exports of the Colombian Milds for the first two months of coffee year 2023/24 are up 18.7% at 2.1 million bags, as compared with 1.77 million bags in the first two months of coffee year 2022/23.

Green bean exports of the Robustas amounted to 3.7 million bags in November 2023, as compared with 3.56 million bags in November 2022, up 4.0%. In volume terms, these constitute the biggest November exports on record, surpassing the level set in November 2022. However, the rise was not sufficient to offset the 10.9% decrease observed in October 2023, when the 2.49 million bags exported represented the lowest quantity for the month since the 1.91 million bags in October 2011. As a result, the cumulative total for the first two months of coffee year 2023/24 is down 2.5%, at 6.2 million bags, as compared with 6.36 million bags in the first two months of coffee year 2022/23. The main driver of November’s Robustas increase was Brazil, shipping 0.86 million bags, a jump of 850.2%.

Exports by Regions — All Forms of Coffee
In November 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee increased by 24.7% to 6.07 million bags. The source of the strong positive growth is mainly Brazil, which saw its exports increase by 21.1% to 4.34 million bags from 3.58 million bags in November 2022. More specifically, it was the Robustas from the origin, which in November increased by 850.2% to 0.86 million bags from 0.09 million bags, which drove the region’s positive growth. The November 2023 exports are Brazil’s highest on record for Robusta coffee, beating the 698,856 bags exported in August 2023. Brazil is one of the largest producers and exporters of the Robustas, having accounted for an 8.1% share of the group’s total exports in coffee year 2021/22, i.e. 3.94 million bags. That said, in July–October 2023, Brazil’s share of the Robustas more than doubled, increasing to 22.3%, with the country exporting 3.09 million bags in just four months. This surge was in response to the reduced volume of Robustas coming out of Vietnam, whose Robusta exports fell by 27.5% in July–October 2023 to 4.92 million bags from 6.78 million bags over the same period a year ago. The continued rampant expansion of Brazil’s Robusta exports despite Vietnam’s recovery in November 2023 suggests that its strong foray into this market may continue.

Robusta exports fell by 27.5% in July–October 2023 to 4.92 million bags from 6.78 million bags over the same period a year ago. The continued rampant expansion of Brazil’s Robusta exports despite Vietnam’s recovery in November 2023 suggests that its strong foray into this market may continue.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 13.5% to 1.01 million bags in November 2023 from 1.16 million bags in November 2022. For the first two months of coffee year 2023/24, exports totalled 2.06 million bags as compared with 2.24 million bags in coffee year 2022/23, down 8.1%. This is the third consecutive month of negative growth for the region and it affected most origins, including all the major producers whose combined exports decreased by 11.4% to 0.93 million bags from 1.05 million bags in November 2022. It is speculated that the surge in Brazil’s Robusta exports is crowding out traditional exporters of the group from the market, thus broadly affecting Africa as a whole, which is a largely Robusta-producing region. Uganda, the largest producer and exporter of Robusta coffee in Africa, was also affected by a delayed harvest season which negatively impacted the supply availability.

In November 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico & Central America were up 15.7% to 0.41 million bags, as compared with 0.35 million in November 2022. As a result, total exports are up 11.0% for October 2023 to November 2023 at 0.9 million bags, as compared with 0.81 million bags for the same period a year ago. Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico are the three main origins behind the region’s double-digit growth in November, with their respective exports up 114.0%, 29.7% and 11.8%. These robust growth rates do not, however, herald the beginning of a record-breaking year for the three origins or for the region, but rather are indications that export volumes are returning to the levels of the recent past, following a sharp fall in coffee year 2022/23. Accordingly, the average October–November export volume for coffee years 2017/18–2021/22 was 0.7 million bags for the three countries as compared with 0.6 million bags in coffee year 2022/23, a 14.6% fall. This has now increased to 0.68 million bags in coffee year 2023/24.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia & Oceania decreased by 18.0% to 3.12 million bags in November 2023. November’s downturn was mainly due to Indonesia, with exports down 45.2% to 0.49 million bags from 0.89 million bags in November 2022. These are the lowest November exports since the 0.2 million bags shipped in 2018. The decrease can be attributed to a reduced harvest in coffee year 2023/24, which is estimated to have fallen by 16.6% to 10.0 million bags from 11.98 million bags in coffee year 2022/23 on the back of excessive rains that damaged cherries in April–May 2023. Vietnam’s exports fell by 7.7% in November, a vast improvement from the steep declines of 23.6%, 45.0% and 44.7% seen in August, September and October 2023. This may indicate that its supply issues have now started to resolve after very low in-origin stock levels were reported in Q4 of coffee year 2022/23, when the start of the harvest still remained three to four months away.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 25.4% in November 2023 to 0.77 million bags from 1.03 million bags in November 2022. In the first two months of coffee year 2023/24, a total of 1.75 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 3.0% from the 1.8 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year.

Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee for the year to date was 8.6% in November 2023, down from 9.2% in the same period a year ago. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, having shipped 0.24 million bags in November 2023.

Exports of roasted beans were down 15.5% in November 2023 to 54,379 bags, as compared with 64,324 bags in November 2022. The cumulative total for coffee year 2023/24 to November 2023 was 0.1 million bags, as compared with 0.13 million bags in same period a year ago.

Production and Consumption
World coffee production increased by 0.1% to 168.2 million bags in coffee year 2022/23. The stagnant growth rate belies the tremendous changes at the regional level, with the coffee world neatly split between the expanding Americas and the shrinking rest of the world.

Asia & Oceania and Africa’s 4.7% and 7.2% decreases in production to 49.84 million bags and 17.9 million bags, respectively, can be attributed to adverse weather conditions negatively affecting key producers in the regions, particularly Vietnam, Côte d’Ivoire and Uganda. The magnitude of the fall in outputs of the two regions was entirely mitigated by the Americas, especially by South America’s 4.8% increase, which in turn was driven mainly by the biennial production-affected 8.4% increase in Brazil. The combined output of the Americas was 100.5 million bags.

The Americas versus the rest of the world split was also reflected in the production split between the Arabicas and Robustas, with the former’s output increasing by 1.8% to 94.0 million bags as compared with the 2.0% decrease of the latter to 74.2 million bags.

Looking ahead, the output for coffee year 2023/24 is expected to increase by 5.8% to 178.0 million bags, with the Arabicas’ output rising to 102.2 million bags and the Robustas’ increasing to 75.8 million bags.

The biennial production effect will play a large role in the outlook, especially for Brazil and the Arabicas, as the impact of the July 2021 frost continues to be resolved. Coffee year 2023/24 is anticipated to be an exceptional off-biennial year, feeling more like a good on-biennial following an average on-biennial year. Adverse weather conditions, first noted in 2022 and continuing into 2023, will have a negative impact on the outlook for coffee year 2023/24. The anticipated El Niño phenomenon is set to dampen the outlook in Asia, especially for origins like Indonesia. Meanwhile, Vietnam is expected to benefit from the drier/hotter weather as irrigation mitigates the reduced precipitation.

World coffee consumption is continuing to resolve through the issues brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, with the consumption trend following an established patten in response to an external shock. The expectation for coffee year 2022/23 was for a smaller positive growth rate; however, world coffee consumption actually recorded a decrease of 2.0% to 173.1 million bags.

Consumption in coffee year 2022/23 did not faithfully follow the established pattern due to the impact of the high cost of living, falling disposable incomes and a long stocks drawdown. Despite coffee being relatively inelastic, the challenging global economic environment would have had a negative impact on its consumption. The world inflation rate was at its highest in 2021 at 9.4%, while the benchmark interest rate averaged 4.9% at the end of September 2023 in the European Union, UK and USA, the highest level since an average of 5.8% in 2000. At the same time, there was a large drawdown of stocks, where combined stocks reported by the European Coffee Federation and those held at the Intercontinental Exchange’s warehouses in the USA fell by 4.8 million bags from 14.5 million to 9.8 million. This drawdown would have reduced the need for purchases on the international market, seemingly reflected as lower and anomalous global consumption rates for coffee year 2022/23.

The world coffee consumption outlook for coffee year 2023/24 is broadly framed by the assumption that the global economy will continue to grow at above 3.0%, and that the industry will respond to the large drawdown of stocks, which will be positively reflected in apparent consumption. As a result, world coffee consumption is expected to grow by 2.2% to 177.0 million bags, with non-producing countries making the biggest contribution to the overall increase. Coffee consumption in this group of countries should expand by 2.1%.

As a result, the world coffee market is expected to run a surplus of 1.0 million bags in coffee year 2023/24.

The outlook is taken from the newest publication of the Statistics Section of the Secretariat of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Coffee Report and Outlook (CRO). For the full CRO or for more information, visit the ICO website: icocoffee.org.

The post Robustas hit a 25-year high, averaging 135.47 US cents/lb in December 2023 appeared first on Tea & Coffee Trade Journal.

The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 161.53 US cents/lb in November, a 6.3% increase from October 2023. The I-CIP posted a median value of 161.63 US cents/lb, having fluctuated between 153.32 and 169.99 US cents/lb. The November 2023 I-CIP is above the November 2022 I-CIP by 3.1%, with the 12-month rolling average at 163.69 US cents/lb, having ranged in between 151.94 in October 2023 and 178.57 US cents/lb in April 2022. The I-CIP has remained stable around the 160 US cents/lb mark, with daily price variation declining on average for the October 2022 to November 2023 range, only 0.04%.

The Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased by 5.3% and 7.2%, to 195.85 and 197.18 US cents/lb, respectively, in November 2023. The Brazilian Naturals presented the strongest growth of 8.8%, reaching an average of 169.25 US cents/lb. However, the Robustas also grew by 3.2% to 122.63 US cents/lb. The International Coffee Exchanges’s (ICE) New York market was a strong driver of the positive growth, growing by 9.2% to 170.25 US cents/lb whilst the London Futures market expanded by 4.8%, to 110.45 US cents/lb.

The Colombian Milds–Other Milds differential contracted from 2.02 to 1.33 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds–Brazilian Naturals differential shrank 12.6% % to 26.60 US cents/lb, whilst the Colombian Milds–Robustas differential also expanded 9.1% from October to November 2023, averaging 73.22 US cents/lb. Meanwhile, the Other Milds–Brazilian Naturals differential contracted 1.8%, reaching 27.93 US cents/lb. However, the Other Milds–Robustas and the Brazilian Naturals–Robustas differentials expanded 14.5% and 27.1%, averaging 74.55 and 46.62 US cents/lb, respectively, in November 2023.

Arbitrage, as measured between the London and New York Futures markets, widened by 18.4% to 59.81 US cents/lb in November 2023. Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP was raised to 8.0% between October and November 2023. The Colombian Milds’ and Other Milds’ volatility also increased to 8.7% and 8.8%. Meanwhile, the Brazilian Naturals’ volatility rose by 1.1 percentage points to 9.7% from October to November 2023. The Robustas presented the smallest volatility increase, with a 0.8 percentage point gain, averaging 8.3% for the month of November. The London Futures market’s volatility decreased by 2.4 percentage points to 9.1%. Lastly, the New York futures market’s volatility moved in tandem to that of London, expanding by 2.4 percentage points and reaching 10.5%.

The New York and London certified stocks continued on their downward trajectory, where London retracted by 49.2% to 0.34 million 60-kg bags, the lowest figure recorded since March 2014. Certified stocks of Arabica coffee reached 0.32 million 60-kg bags, a 24.5% decrease.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global exports of green beans in October 2023 totalled 8.57 million bags, compared with 8.61 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 0.4%. The downturn was driven by the Robustas, the only one of the four groups to start coffee year 2023/24 with negative growth.

The Brazilian Naturals made a strong start to the new coffee year, with exports increasing by 10.0% to 4.02 million bags from 3.66 million bags in October 2022. This is the second-highest volume exported in the month of October on record, just behind the 3.9 million bags shipped in 2020. Brazil was the main driver of this strong start, with the origin’s total green bean exports up 23.0% to 4.08 million bags in October 2023, which is also the country’s second-highest volume of exports in the month of October to be documented.

Exports of the Colombian Milds increased by 0.2% to 1.031 million bags in October 2023 from 1.03 million bags in October 2022. The near-stagnant start to the new coffee year was due to the conflation of the continued downturn in Colombia, the largest producer and export of the Colombian Milds, and the strong start made by Kenya and Tanzania, the two other origins that make up this coffee group.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 1.8% in October 2023 to 1.59 million bags from 1.62 million bags in the same period last year. The main negative contributions came from Brazil (down 66.2% and 78,719 bags) and Papua New Guinea (down 34.3% and 53,737 bags), while Honduras provided the largest positive contribution (up 28.9% and 138,993 bags).

Of the four coffee groups, the Robustas have recorded the highest contraction in the new coffee year to date, with exports falling by 8.0% to 2.88 million bags from 3.14 million bags. Vietnam, the largest Robusta producer in the world, was the driver of the sharp downturn, with exports of Robusta green beans down 45.2% to 0.69 million bags in October 2023 from 1.26 million bags in October 2022.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In October 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee increased by 16.4% to 5.95 million bags. Brazil was the main driving force of the double-digit growth of the region, having shipped 4.37 million bags in October 2023, a jump of 21.7%. Peru provided added support, with its exports increasing by 28.9% to 0.62 million bags from 0.48 million bags in October 2022.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia & Oceania totalled 2.05 million bags in October 2023, decreasing by 26.7%. Vietnam, the world’s second-largest producer and exporter of coffee, was the main driver of the region’s sharp downturn, with total exports down 44.7% to 0.75 million bags in October 2023 from 1.36 million bags in October 2022. This was the lowest volume of exports since the 0.7 million bags shipped in October 2008. A shortage of exportable materials within Vietnam, due to the lower-than-expected harvest in coffee year 2022/23, a delay in supply from the current coffee year’s harvest and a very strong export performance in the first nine months of the previous coffee year, explain the sharp downturn.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 1.0% to 1.07 million bags in October 2023 from 1.08 million bags in October 2022. Ethiopia (–13.5%), Rwanda (–34.8%) and Cameroon (–57.4%) were the three main origins making a negative contribution to the region’s exports, in absolute terms, while Burundi (200.0%), Côte d’Ivoire (40.9%), Kenya (31.4%) and Uganda (2.8%) were the main origins making positive contributions. According to the Uganda Coffee Development Authority, the promising export performance in October 2023 was due to adequate supply from a good crop harvest in the South-Western region and the prevailing good prices on the global scene which prompted exporters to release their stocks. In Ethiopia, contract disputes arising out of a mismatch between local purchasing prices and the global market prices, first reported in the middle of coffee year 2022/23, continue to negatively impact export volume in the new coffee year.

In October 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico & Central America were up 0.4% to 0.459 million bags as compared with 0.457 million in October 2022. The performances of individual origins belied the less-than-dynamic growth of the region, with very strong negative and positive growth rates registered in October: Costa Rica (212.7%), El Salvador (69.6%), Guatemala (18.0%) and Nicaragua (15.6%) on the expansion side against the decreasing Dominican Republic (–80.1%), Honduras (–39.2%) and Mexico (–11.1%).

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 16.9% in October 2023 to 0.91 million bags from 0.78 million bags in October 2022. Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee for the year to date was 10.6% in October 2023, up from 9.0% for the same period a year ago. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, having shipped 0.28 million bags in October 2023. Exports of roasted beans were down 20.4% in October 2023 to 49,185 bags, as compared with 61,781 bags in October 2022.

Production and Consumption
World coffee production increased by 0.1% to 168.2 million bags in coffee year 2022/23. The stagnant growth rate belies the tremendous changes at the regional level, with the coffee world neatly split between the expanding Americas and the shrinking rest of the world.

Asia & Oceania and Africa’s 4.7% and 7.2% decreases in production to 49.84 million bags and 17.9 million bags, respectively, can be attributed to adverse weather conditions negatively affecting key producers in the regions, particularly Vietnam, Côte d’Ivoire and Uganda. The magnitude of the fall in outputs of the two regions was entirely mitigated by the Americas, especially by South America’s 4.8% increase, which in turn was driven mainly by the biennial production-affected 8.4% increase in Brazil.

The combined output of the Americas was 100.5 million bags. The Americas versus the rest of the world split was also reflected in the production split between the Arabicas and Robustas, with the former’s output increasing by 1.8% to 94.0 million bags as compared with the 2.0% decrease of the latter to 74.2 million bags.

Looking ahead, the output for coffee year 2023/24 is expected to increase by 5.8% to 178.0 million bags, with the Arabicas’ output rising to 102.2 million bags and the Robustas’ increasing to 75.8 million bags.

The biennial production effect will play a large role in the outlook, especially for Brazil and the Arabicas, as the impact of the July 2021 frost continues to be resolved. Coffee year 2023/24 is anticipated to be an exceptional off-biennial year, feeling more like a good on-biennial following an average on-biennial year. Adverse weather conditions, first noted in 2022 and continuing into 2023, will have a negative impact on the outlook for coffee year 2023/24. The anticipated El Niño phenomenon is set to dampen the outlook in Asia, especially for origins like Indonesia. Meanwhile, Vietnam is expected to benefit from the drier/hotter weather as irrigation mitigates the reduced precipitation.

World coffee consumption is continuing to resolve through the issues brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic, with the consumption trend following an established patten in response to an external shock. The expectation for coffee year 2022/23 was for a smaller positive growth rate; however, world coffee consumption actually recorded a decrease of 2.0% to 173.1 million bags.

Consumption in coffee year 2022/23 did not faithfully follow the established pattern due to the impact of the high cost of living, falling disposable incomes and a long stocks drawdown. Despite coffee being relatively inelastic, the challenging global economic environment would have had a negative impact on its consumption. The world inflation rate was at its highest in 2021 at 9.4%, while the benchmark interest rate averaged 4.9% at the end of September 2023 in the European Union, UK and USA, the highest level since an average of 5.8% in 2000. At the same time, there was a large drawdown of stocks, where combined stocks reported by the European Coffee Federation and those held at the Intercontinental Exchange’s warehouses in the USA fell by 4.8 million bags from 14.5 million to 9.8 million. This drawdown would have reduced the need for purchases on the international market, seemingly reflected as lower and anomalous global consumption rates for coffee year 2022/23.

The world coffee consumption outlook for coffee year 2023/24 is broadly framed by the assumption that the global economy will continue to grow at above 3.0%, and that the industry will respond to the large drawdown of stocks, which will be positively reflected in apparent consumption. As a result, world coffee consumption is expected to grow by 2.2% to 177.0 million bags, with non-producing countries making the biggest contribution to the overall increase. Coffee consumption in this group of countries should expand by 2.1%.

Balance. As a result, the world coffee market is expected to run a surplus of 1.0 million bags in coffee year 2023/24.

The outlook is taken from the newest publication of the Statistics Section of the Secretariat of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Coffee Report and Outlook (CRO). To download the full report or for more information, visit: icocoffee.org.

The post <strong>Coffee prices remain stable averaging above 160 US cents/lb in November 2023</strong> appeared first on Tea & Coffee Trade Journal.

Green Coffee Price
The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 151.94 US cents/lb in October, a 0.8% decline from September 2023. The I-CIP posted a median value of 151.58 US cents/lb, having fluctuated between 145.99 and 160.09 US cents/lb.

The Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased by 0.5% and 0.2%, to 185.97 and 183.95 US cents/lb, respectively, in October 2023. The Brazilian Naturals presented the strongest growth of 0.9%, reaching an average of 155.52 US cents/lb. However, Robustas retracted 4.1% to 118.83 US cents/lb. ICE’s New York market grew by 1.5% whilst the London Futures market shrank by 3.4%, to 155.91 and 105.40 US cents/lb, respectively.

The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential grew 38.5% to 2.02 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential shrank 1.1% to 30.45 US cents/lb, whilst the Colombian Milds-Robustas differential also expanded 9.9% from September to October 2023, averaging 67.14 US cents/lb. Meanwhile, the Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential contracted 3.1%, reaching 28.43 US cents/lb. However, the Other Milds-Robustas and the Brazilian Naturals-Robustas differentials expanded 9.2% and 21.1%, averaging 65.12 and 36.69 US cents/lb, respectively, in October 2023.

Arbitrage, as measured between the London and New York Futures markets, widened by 13.7% to 50.51 US cents/lb in October 2023.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP remained stable at 6.3% between September and October 2023. The Colombian Milds’ and Other Milds’ volatility also increased to 6.8% and 7.6%. Meanwhile, the Brazilian Naturals’ volatility rose by 0.5 percentage points to 8.6% from September to October 2023. The Robustas presented the smallest volatility increase, with a 0.1 percentage point gain, averaging 7.5% for the month of October. The London Futures market’s volatility decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 6.7%. Lastly, the New York futures market’s volatility moved in the opposite direction to that of London, expanding by 0.4 percentage points and reaching 8.1%.

The New York and London certified stocks moved in the same downward direction, where London retracted by 7.9% to 0.67 million 60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Arabica coffee reached 0.44 million 60-kg bags, a 10.7% decrease and the lowest figure since October 2022.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in September 2023 totalled 7.8 million bags, as compared with 8.83 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 11.6%. For coffee year 2022/23, exports of green beans were down 5.5% to 110.81 million bags from 117.28 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. The global macro-economic environment was not conducive to consumer confidence in coffee year 2022/23, with global inflation and interest rates in many of the key advanced economies high and rising, increasing the cost of living and thus reducing disposable income levels for a very large section of the world.

These conditions seemingly support a downturn in the consumption of coffee and consequently in global exports of green beans. Nevertheless, the global economy was not only projected to expand in calendar year 2023, but the outlook was also raised between April–October 2023 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which suggests otherwise. The drop in global exports of green beans in coffee year 2022/23 may therefore lie more with logistics/the supply chain than the economy and actual consumption of coffee. Average green bean exports amounted to 118.13 million bags in coffee years 2018/19–2021/22, as compared with an average 109.59 million bags for coffee years 2014/15–2017/18, a jump of 8.54 million bags. This suggests a build-up of stocks in non-producing countries which have been heavily drawn down in the past 12 months.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 13.1% in September 2023 to 1.57 million bags from 1.8 million bags in the same period last year. For coffee year 2022/23, exports of the Other Milds were down 12.1% to 22.11 million bags from 25.16 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals decreased in September 2023, falling by 13.4% to 2.69 million bags. For coffee year 2022/23, exports of the Brazilian Naturals were down 8.5% to 34.17 million bags from 37.33 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. Exports of the Colombian Milds increased by 6.7% to 0.87 million bags in September 2023 from 0.82 million bags in September 2022. For coffee year 2022/23, exports of the Colombian Milds were down 11.2% to 10.77 million bags from 12.14 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. For coffee year 2022/23, total green bean exports of the Arabicas were down 10.1% to 67.05 million bags from 74.63 million bags in coffee year 2021/22.

Overall, for the Arabicas, exports were seemingly negatively affected by the drawdown of stocks in consuming countries, with buyers staying away from the markets in coffee year 2022/23. Furthermore, substitution towards the more competitively priced Robustas, induced by the increased cost of living and reduced disposable income, would have also added to the downturn (see Green Coffee Price).

Exports of the Colombian Milds fell below the 11.0 million bags mark for the first time since coffee year 2012/13. These exports were primarily driven by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, and weather-related disruption affected supply throughout most of coffee year 2022/23. Indeed, Colombia’s green bean exports contracted for the first 11 months of coffee year 2022/23, with only September 2023 showing an expansion. Figures for the year show that, overall, the country’s exports declined 13.1% to 9.42 million bags, the first time they have dropped below 10.0 million bags since coffee year 2013/14.

Green bean exports of the Robustas amounted to 2.67 million bags in September 2023, as compared with 3.09 million bags in September 2022, down 13.8%. For coffee year 2022/23, exports of the Robustas were up 2.6% to 43.76 million bags from 42.66 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. Of the four groups of coffee, the Robustas were the only group to experience positive growth in coffee year 2022/23, benefitting from macro-economic-induced substitution away from less competitively priced Arabicas.

The September 2023 exports represent the lowest September volume for the Robustas since the 2.58 million bags shipped in 2012 and were a result of the 43.4% decrease in exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest producer and exporter of the group, which only shipped 0.81 million bags – the lowest September exports since 2008 (0.79 million bags). Vietnam has been struggling with supply since the start of Q4 of coffee year 2022/23, when very low in-origin stock levels were reported at a time when the start of the harvest still remained three to four months away. The low September 2023 export levels appear to be a continuation of the industry’s deepening struggle with supply issues.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In September 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 3.4% to 4.74 million bags. For coffee year 2022/23, the region’s exports were down 11.0% to 50.59 million bags from 56.83 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. The region’s two largest producers and exporters, Brazil and Colombia, saw their total exports fall by 7.9% and 12.8%, respectively. South America’s fortunes are closely tied to the fortunes of the Arabicas and many of the same factors that explain the latter’s double-digit fall also explain the former’s. After all, from coffee year 2018/19 to 2022/23, 93.2% of the total green bean exports from South America were Arabicas, on average. The drawdown of stocks in consuming countries and substitution towards the Robustas are the two main factors. Two specific and additional factors are that (i) Brazil’s export performance was poor due to its relatively limited supply following two consecutive years of below-par harvests; and (ii) Colombia struggled with weather-impacted supply conditions that negatively affected the origin’s export volume.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 1.9% to 1.21 million bags in September 2023 from 1.23 million bags in September 2022. For coffee year 2022/23, the region’s exports were down 1.4% to 13.53 million bags from 13.73 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. The relatively strong global demand for Robustas was the fundamental source of Africa’s positive export growth rate in coffee year 2022/23. Moreover, particularly during Q4 of coffee year 2022/23, the reduced volume of exports from the Asia and Oceania region, and more pointedly from Vietnam, strengthened Africa’s own export performance. Uganda, the largest producer and exporter of Robusta coffee in Africa, took the opportunity to fill the gap in the market left by Vietnam and the Asia and Oceania region as a whole.

In September 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 9.2% to 0.74 million bags as compared with 0.81 million bags in September 2022. For coffee year 2022/23, the region’s exports were down 3.1% to 15.3 million bags from 15.78 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. The downturn was primarily driven by Guatemala and Mexico, which suffered 11.5% and 16.5% decreases, respectively. However, the mitigating factor that limited the region’s fall in exports to a low single-digit decrease was Honduras’ 13.5% increase.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania decreased by 35.7% to 1.91 million bags in September 2023 as compared with 2.98 million bags in September 2022. For coffee year 2022/23, the region’s exports were down 0.9% to 43.56 million bags from 43.95 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. Asia and Oceania’s fortunes are closely tied to the fortunes of the Robustas and many of the same factors that explain the latter’s single-digit increase also explain the former’s. From coffee year 2018/19 to 2022/23, 89.1% of the total green bean exports from Asia & Oceania were Robustas, on average. In coffee year 2022/23, Vietnam’s exports were up 0.4% to 28.29 million bags from 28.19 million bags in coffee year 2021/22.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 27.3% in September 2023 to 0.75 million bags from 1.03 million bags in September 2022. For coffee year 2022/23, soluble coffee exports were down 5.7% to 11.47 million bags from 12.16 million bags in coffee year 2021/22.

Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee for the year to date was 8.7% in September 2023, down from 10.4% for the same period a year ago. For coffee year 2022/23, soluble coffee’s share of the total exports was 9.3%, the same as in coffee year 2021/22. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, having shipped 0.27 million bags in September 2023 and 3.77 million bags in coffee year 2022/23.

Exports of roasted beans were down 26.7% in September 2023 to 55,203 bags, as compared with 75,355 bags in September 2022. For coffee year 2022/23, roasted coffee exports were down 16.0% to 0.71 million bags from 0.84 million bags in coffee year 2021/22.

Production and Consumption
Under the current circumstances, the estimates and outlook of production and consumption for coffee years 2021/22 and 2022/23 remain the same.

World coffee production decreased by 1.4% to 168.5 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, hampered by the off-biennial production and negative meteorological conditions in a number of key origins. However, it is expected to bounce back by 1.7% to 171.3 million bags in 2022/23. Increased global fertiliser costs and adverse weather conditions are expected to partially offset the positive impact of biennial production from Brazil, explaining the relatively low rate of growth in coffee year 2022/23.

The impact of biennial production is anticipated to drive the outlook for Arabica, which is projected to increase by 4.6% to 98.6 million bags in coffee year 2022/23, following a 7.2% decrease in the previous coffee year. Reflecting its cyclical output, Arabica’s share of the total coffee production is expected to increase to 57.5% from 55.9% in coffee year 2021/22. South America is and will remain the largest producer of coffee in the world, despite suffering from the largest drop in output for almost 20 years, which fell by 7.6% in coffee year 2021/22. The recovery in coffee year 2022/23, partly driven by biennial production, is expected to push the region’s output to 82.4 million bags, a rise of 6.2%.

World coffee consumption increased by 4.2% to 175.6 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, following a 0.6% rise the previous year. Release of the pent-up demand built up during the Covid-19 years and sharp global economic growth of 6.0% in 2021 explains the sharp bounce back in coffee consumption in coffee year 2021/22. Decelerating world economic growth rates for 2022 and 2023, coupled with the dramatic rise in the cost of living, will have an impact on the coffee consumption for coffee year 2022/23. It is expected to grow, but at a decelerating rate of 1.7% to 178.5 million bags. The global deceleration is expected to come from non-producing countries, with Europe’s coffee consumption predicted to suffer the largest decrease among all regions, with growth rates falling to 0.1% in coffee year 2022/23 from a 6.0% expansion in coffee year 2021/22.

As a result, the world coffee market is expected to run another year of deficit, a shortfall of 7.3 million bags.

The outlook is taken from the newest publication of the Statistics Section of the Secretariat of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Coffee Report and Outlook (CRO). To download the full CRO or for more information, visit the ICO website: icocoffee.org.

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Broadly, the upward trend has the support of the fundamentals, with the global coffee market in deficit in coffee year 2021/22 and this situation expected to be repeated in coffee year 2022/23 (see Production and Consumption). The impetus behind the rally from the last days of March 2023 to the beginning of the third week of April 2023 can be attributed to the reinforcement of the support of the fundamentals from several market-driving events and announcements (see Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee). However, the downturn of the I-CIP, seen since the beginning of the third week of April 2023, appears mainly due to the strengthening US dollar. From 23 March to 28 April 2023, the Brazilian real (R$) moved from a low of R$5.30 on 23 March to a peak of R$4.91 on 14 April, before weakening again to an average of R$5.03 between 15 and 28 April against the US dollar.

Average prices for all group indicators increased in April 2023, with the Robustas averaging an 8.7% gain at 115.70 US cents/lb. Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased by 4.3% and 3.2%, to 234.85 and 229.56 US cents/lb, respectively, in April 2023. Brazilian Naturals lead the way amongst Arabicas, climbing 4.4% and reaching an average of 195.26 US cents/lb. The International Coffee Exchange’s (ICE) New York market expanded 6.3%, whilst the London Futures market grew 9.1% to 187.30 and 105.43 US cents/lb, respectively.

Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential presented resilient growth, rising 84.3% to 5.30 US cents/lb. Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential also gained 3.6% from March to April 2023, averaging 39.60 US cents/lb in April, whilst Colombian Milds-Robustas grew 0.3% to 119.15 US cents/lb for the same period. Conversely, Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential lost 2.9%, averaging 34.30 US cents/lb, whilst Other Milds-Robustas also shrank by 1.7% to 113.86 US cents/lb. With the most moderate loss, Brazilian Naturals-Robustas dropped 1.2% to 79.56 US cents/lb.

Arbitrage, as measured in between the London and New York Futures markets, expanded by 2.9% to 81.88 US cents/lb in April 2023.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP is stabilising and reached 8.7% with a marginal increase of 0.6 percentage points between March and April 2023. Robustas presented the strongest volatility increase, averaging 7.7% for the month of April 2023, a 1.4 percentage point expansion. Echoing this increased volatility were the New York Futures and London markets, where 0.1 and 0.8 percentage points were gained, averaging 11.1% and 7.9%, respectively, for April 2023. Whilst volatility of the Other Milds grew 0.4 percentage points to 9.2%, the Colombian Milds also increased by 0.3 percentage points to 9.0%. Lastly, Brazilian Naturals saw an 0.5 percentage point increase in volatility from March to April 2023.

The New York certified stocks decreased 7.9% from the previous month, closing in at 0.74 million 60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.31 million 60-kg bags, representing an increase of 3.1%.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in March 2023 totalled 10.90 million bags, as compared with 12.06 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 9.6%. The downturn was spread across all coffee groups. As a result, the cumulative total exports of green beans for coffee year 2022/23 is decreasing at an accelerated rate, down 6.1%, as compared with the 5.2% fall recorded for the first five months of the current coffee year. The cumulative total for 2022/23 to March is 56.26 million bags, as compared with 59.92 million bags over the same period a year ago.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 17.1% in March 2023 to 2.11 million bags from 2.55 million bags in the same period last year. This is the sixth consecutive month of negative growth for green bean exports of Other Milds since the start of the new coffee year. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports fell by 18.2% in the first six months of coffee year 2022/23 to 8.86 million bags versus 10.83 million bags over the same period in 2021/22.

Green bean exports of Brazilian Naturals fell in March 2023, falling by 13.5% to 3.08 million bags. For the first six months of coffee year 2022/23, green bean exports of Brazilian Naturals amounted to 18.61 million bags, down 7.8% from 20.18 million bags over the same period a year ago. Changes to the fortunes of Brazilian Naturals are mainly changes in Brazil’s green bean exports, the biggest producer and exporter of Brazilian Naturals, which also fell in March 2023 (-14.8%) to 2.78 million bags from 3.27 million bags in March 2022.

Exports of Colombian Milds decreased by 17.4% to 0.96 million bags in March 2023 from 1.17 million bags in March 2022, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 19.2% in March 2023. This is the ninth consecutive month of negative growth for Colombian Milds and, as a result, the exports of this group of coffee for October 2022 to March 2023 were down 14.7%, at 5.63 million bags, as compared with 6.60 million bags in the first six months of coffee year 2021/22.

Green bean exports of Robustas amounted to 4.74 million bags in March 2023, as compared with 4.78 million bags in March 2022, down 0.8%. In the first six months of coffee year 2022/23, 23.17 million bags of Robustas were exported as compared with 22.31 million bags in the same period in 2021/22.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In March 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 17.3% to 4.13 million bags, driven by the three main origins of the region, Brazil, Colombia and Peru, which saw their combined exports fall by 17.9%. The two major origins of the region, Brazil and Colombia, saw their respective shipments of coffee decrease by 14.3% and 19.2% in March 2023, falling to 3.1 million and 0.92 million bags, ie, the fourth and ninth consecutive months of negative growth, respectively.

The off-season and smaller harvests in 2020/21 and 2021/22 have been put forward as explanations for Brazil’s falling exports by Cecafé, the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council, while in Colombia both an adverse weather-driven fall in supply and a 10% decrease in production in March 2023, continue to explain the decreasing exports.

Peru is continuing to see its exports fall at a significantly faster rate, plunging by 76.5% in March 2023. Again, erratic weather played a part in this downturn, in addition to social unrest in the main producing areas (Cajamarca, Junín and San Martín) which saw their roads blocked. However, the main culprit behind the magnitude of the fall in exports is mechanical; 4.60 million bags of all forms of coffee were exported in coffee year 2021/22, the second largest in volume on record, just behind the 4.69 million bags exported in coffee year 2011/12, increasing by 44.8% as compared with coffee year 2020/21. Moreover, for the first three months of the calendar year (January to March 2022), exports increased by 245.8% at 1.00 million bags, the largest Q1 shipment on record, and 57.4% higher than the next biggest, 0.64 million bags, recorded in 2012. Given these record breaking numbers the Q1 data for 2023 are, inevitably, suffering in comparison.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 5.0% to 1.12 million bags in March 2023 from 1.18 million bags in March 2022. For the first six months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 6.35 million bags as compared with 6.33 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, up 0.3%. Côte d’Ivoire and Kenya are the main drivers behind the fall in the region’s exports, with shipments of coffee decreasing by 41.4% to 0.12 million bags as compared with 0.21 million bags in March 2022, and by 17.7% to 58,340 bags from 70,849 bags in March 2022, respectively. However, Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda served as counterweights that tempered the severity of the region’s downturn, with their exports up 86.7%, 249.2% and 2.0%, respectively.

In March 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 15.4% to 1.75 million bags as compared with 2.07 million in March 2022. This latest month of negative growth is the fifth in the first six months of the current coffee year, with the only instance of positive growth seen in February 2023. As a result, for the first six months of the current coffee year, exports are down at 11.8%, totalling 5.78 million bags as compared with 6.56 million bags from October 2021 to March 2022. Of the top six origins, five saw their exports fall in March 2023, with Guatemala suffering the heaviest decline (-44.9%), while Honduras was the only major origin with positive growth (2.0%). For Honduras, the increase seen in March is the third consecutive month of expansion, following 11 straight months of decreases between February and December 2022.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania increased by 0.2% to 5.03 million bags in March 2023 and were up 2.5% to 24.05 million bags in the first six months of coffee year 2022/23. Indonesia is the main driver of the latest upturn, with exports increasing by 16.0% to 0.58 million bags from 0.50 million bags in March 2022, outweighing the 1.6% and 1.1% downturns of India and Vietnam, respectively.

Indonesia’s upturn in exports seemingly came in the face of evidence to the contrary; the ICO’s latest outlook for coffee year 2022/23 projected Indonesia’s production to be growing at a slower rate than its consumption, 1.1% versus 5.1%, thereby reducing the supply available for export. Moreover, earlier in the year, the Association of Indonesia Coffee Exporters and Industries projected a 20% fall in production due to excessive rain across the coffee growing regions, while severe rainfall was seen through much of the archipelago in the first four months of 2023. The double-digit expansion of exports in March is mainly explained by the strong on-off seasonality of Indonesia’s coffee exports, which is evident in both annual and monthly data (see Graph A). Thus, the 16.0% increase in March 2023 is more a reflection of March 2022 than a statement on the current status of Indonesia’s coffee industry or the world’s demand for its coffee.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 6.5% in March 2023 to 1.05 million bags from 1.13 million bags in March 2022. In the first six months of coffee year 2022/23, a total of 5.67 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 8.8% from the 6.22 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee was 10.1% (measured on a moving 12-month average) in March 2023, the same as it was in March 2022. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 0.32 million bags in March 2023.

Exports of roasted beans were up 5.9% in March 2023 to 66,393 bags, as compared with 62,689 bags in March 2022. The cumulative total for coffee year 2022/23 to March 2023 was 358,640 bags, as compared with 399,479 bags in same period a year ago.

Production and Consumption
The estimates and outlook of production and consumption for coffee years 2021/22 and 2022/23 remain the same. World coffee production decreased by 1.4% to 168.5 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, hampered by the off-biennial production and negative meteorological conditions in several key origins. However, it is expected to bounce back by 1.7% to 171.3 million bags in 2022/23. Increased global fertiliser costs and adverse weather conditions are expected to partially offset the positive impact of biennial production from Brazil, explaining the relatively low rate of growth in coffee year 2022/23. The impact of biennial production is anticipated to drive the outlook for Arabica, which is projected to increase by 4.6% to 98.6 million bags in coffee year 2022/23, following a 7.2% decrease in the previous coffee year.

Reflecting its cyclical output, Arabica’s share of the total coffee production is expected to increase to 57.5% from 55.9% in coffee year 2021/22. South America is and will remain the largest producer of coffee in the world, despite suffering from the largest drop in output for almost 20 years, which fell by 7.6% in coffee year 2021/22. The recovery in coffee year 2022/23, partly driven by biennial production, is expected to push the region’s output to 82.4 million bags, a rise of 6.2%.

World coffee consumption increased by 4.2% to 175.6 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, following a 0.6% rise the previous year. Release of the pent-up demand built up during the Covid-19 years and sharp global economic growth of 6.0% in 2021 explains the sharp bounce back in coffee consumption in coffee year 2021/22. Decelerating world economic growth rates for 2022 and 2023, coupled with the dramatic rise in the cost of living, will have an impact on the coffee consumption for coffee year 2022/23. It is expected to grow, but at a decelerating rate of 1.7% to 178.5 million bags. The global deceleration is expected to come from non-producing countries, with Europe’s coffee consumption predicted to suffer the largest decrease among all regions, with growth rates falling to 0.1% in coffee year 2022/23 from a 6.0% expansion in coffee year 2021/22.

As a result, the world coffee market is expected to run another year of deficit, a shortfall of 7.3 million bags.

The outlook is taken from the newest publication of the Statistics Section of the Secretariat of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Coffee Report and Outlook (CRO). The CRO offers an insight into the factors moving the global coffee industry in the most recent past and draws out the potential events that may drive the industry in the near future. The CRO can be downloaded from the ICO website: www.icocoffee.org. For further information, contact the Statistics Section at stats@ico.org.

The post April coffee prices rise on the heels of decreasing exports appeared first on Tea & Coffee Trade Journal.

Average prices for all group indicators decreased in March 2023, except for the Robustas. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds decreased by 5.5% and 3.2%, to 225.23 and 222.36 US cents/lb, respectively, in March 2023. However, the Brazilian Naturals lost 4.2% whilst the Robustas gained 2.5%, reaching an average of 187.02 and 106.49 US cents/lb. The London Futures market grew 2.5% whilst ICE’s New York market shrank by 2.6%.

The Colombian Milds-Other Milds led the way, shrinking 66.8% to 2.87 US cents/lb. Similarly, the Brazilian Naturals-Robustas and Colombian Milds-Robustas differentials both lost 11.7%, reaching 80.53 and 118.74 US cents/lb in March 2023. The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals echoed this loss, closing in at 38.21 US cents/lb, a 11.6% loss from the month before. Presenting a more moderate loss, the Other Milds-Robustas differential contracted by 7.9%, closing the month at 115.87 US cents/lb. Conversely, the Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential expanded 2.3%, reaching 35.34 US cents/lb in March 2023. The arbitrage, as measured between the New York and London Futures market, contracted 8.2%, closing in at 79.57 US cents/lb in March 2023, from 86.67 US cents/lb in February 2023.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP decreased 0.6 percentage points between February 2023 and March 2023, reaching 8.1%. The Brazilian Naturals’ volatility presented the strongest volatility contraction, averaging 10.3% for the month of March 2023, a 1.8 percentage point loss. Echoing this reduction in volatility were the New York Futures and London markets, where 1.6 and 0.7 percentage points were lost, averaging 11% and 7.1%, respectively, for March 2023. Whilst volatility for the Other Milds remained stable at 8.8%, the Colombian Milds decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 8.7%. Conversely, the Robustas gained 0.1 percentage point of volatility from February to March, averaging 6.3% for the latter.

The New York certified stocks decreased 6.7% from the previous month, closing in at 0.80 million 60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.27 million 60-kg bags, representing an increase of 7.2%.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in February 2023 totalled 7.94 million bags, versus 9.95 million bags in the prior year month, down 20.23%. The downturn was spread across all coffee groups. As a result, the cumulative total exports of green beans for coffee year 2022/23 are decreasing at an accelerated rate, down 8.5%, as compared with the 5.5% decrease observed for the first four months of the current coffee year. The cumulative total for 2022/23 to February is 43.77 million bags as compared with 47.85 million bags over the same a year ago.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 16.0% in February 2023 to 1.72 million bags from 2.04 million bags in the prior-year period. This is the fifth consecutive month of negative growth for green bean exports of the Other Milds since the start of the new coffee year. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports fell by 18.5% in the first five months of coffee year 2022/23 to 6.75 million bags from 8.28 million bags over the same period in coffee year 2021/22.

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals fell in February 2023, diminishing by 33.0% to 2.34 million bags. For the first five months of coffee year 2022/23, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals amounted to 15.4 million bags, down 7.0% from 16.61 million bags over the same year-ago period. The shifting fortunes of the Brazilian Naturals reflected the changes in Brazil’s green bean exports, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, which fell 35.4% in February 2023 to 2.11 million bags from 3.27 million bags in February 2022.

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 6.8% to 0.99 million bags in February 2023 from 1.06 million bags in February 2022, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 5.7% in February 2023. As a result of the continued downturn, exports of the Colombian Milds from October 2022 to February 2023 were down by 14.1%, at 4.67 million bags, versus 5.43 million bags in the first five months of coffee year 2021/22.

Green bean exports of the Robustas amounted to 2.89 million bags in February 2023, as compared with 3.35 million bags in February 2022, down 13.7%. As a result, the shipments in the first five months of coffee year 2022/23 were down to 16.91 million bags from 17.53 million bags in the same period in coffee year 2021/22.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In February 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 29.8% to 3.48 million bags, driven by the three main origins of the region, Brazil, Colombia and Peru, which saw their combined exports fall by 30.7%. The two major origins of the region, Brazil and Colombia, saw their respective shipments of coffee decrease by 32.5% and 5.1% in February 2023, falling to 2.41 million bags and 0.94 million bags. Peru is continuing to see its exports fall at a significantly faster rate, plunging by 44.6% in February 2023.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania decreased by 15.3% to 2.99 million bags in February 2023 and were down 5.6% to 17.4 million bags in the first five months of coffee year 2022/23. Vietnam and India are the main drivers behind the latest downturn. The former’s exports are down by 25.3% to 1.79 million bags from 2.39 million bags in February 2022, while the latter’s also fell 9.5% to 0.49 million bags from 0.54 million bags in the same period.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa increased by 2.2% to 1.02 million bags in February 2023 from 1.0 million bags in February 2022. For the first five months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 5.23 million bags as compared with 5.15 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, up 1.4%.

Uganda is the main driver behind the jump in the region’s exports, with shipments of coffee increasing by 6.6% to 0.48 million bags as compared with 0.45 million bags in February 2022. Burundi, Côte d’Ivoire and the Democratic Republic of Congo are three other origins of note for February 2023, with their exports up 62.5%, 18.1% and 30.0%, respectively, adding to Uganda’s upward impetus within the region. Kenya was another notable origin in February 2023, though for different reasons, with exports down 43.5%.

In February 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were up 2.4% to 1.42 million bags as compared with 1.39 million in February 2022. For the first five months of the current coffee year, however, exports remain down 10.1%, totalling 4.03 million bags as compared with 4.48 million bags in October–February 2021/22. However, the region’s latest export results broke the four consecutive months of negative growth thanks to Costa Rica (up 6.2%), Dominican Republic (up 95.6%), El Salvador (up 12.9%) and Nicaragua (up 35.1%).

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 5.8% in February 2023 to 0.92 million bags from 0.87 million bags in February 2022. In the first five months of coffee year 2022/23, a total of 4.59 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 11.2% from the 5.09 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee was 10.2% (measured on a moving 12-month average) in February 2023, up from 10.1% in February 2022. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 0.3 million bags in February 2023.

Exports of roasted beans were up 6.2% in February 2023 to 50,140 bags, versus 47,212 bags in February 2022. The cumulative total for coffee year 2022/23 to February 2023 was 292,247 bags, as compared with 336,790 bags in same period a year ago.

Production and Consumption
World coffee production slipped by 1.4% to 168.5 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, hampered by the off-biennial production and negative meteorological conditions in several key origins. However, it is expected to bounce back by 1.7% to 171.3 million bags in 2022/23.

Increased global fertiliser costs and adverse weather conditions are expected to partially offset the positive impact of biennial production from Brazil, explaining the relatively low rate of growth in coffee year 2022/23. The impact of biennial production is anticipated to drive the outlook for Arabica, which is projected to increase by 4.6% to 98.6 million bags in coffee year 2022/23, following a 7.2% decrease the previous coffee year.

Reflecting its cyclical output, Arabica’s share of the total coffee production is expected to increase to 57.5% from 55.9% in coffee year 2021/22. South America is and will remain the largest producer of coffee in the world, despite suffering from the largest drop in output for almost 20 years, which fell by 7.6% in coffee year 2021/22. The recovery in coffee year 2022/23, partly driven by biennial production, is expected to push the region’s output to 82.4 million bags, a rise of 6.2%.

World coffee consumption increased by 4.2% to 175.6 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, following a 0.6% rise the previous year. Release of the pent-up demand built-up during the Covid-19 years and sharp global economic growth of 6.0% in 2021, explains the bounce back in coffee consumption in coffee year 2021/22.

Decelerating world economic growth rates for 2022 and 2023, coupled with the dramatic rise in the cost of living, will have an impact on the coffee consumption for coffee year 2022/23. It is expected to grow, but at a decelerating rate of 1.7% to 178.5 million bags. The global deceleration is expected to come from non-producing countries, with Europe’s coffee consumption predicted to suffer the largest decrease among all regions, with growth rates falling to 0.1% in coffee year 2022/23 from a 6.0% expansion in coffee year 2021/22.

As a result, the world coffee market is expected to undergo another year of deficit, with a shortfall of 7.3 million bags.

This outlook is taken from the newest publication of the Statistics Section of the Secretariat of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Coffee Report and Outlook (CRO). The CRO offers an insight into the factors moving the global coffee industry in the most recent past and draws out the potential events that may drive the industry in the near future. For further information on the CRO, please contact the Statistics Section at stats@ico.org.

For the full report, visit: icocoffee.org.

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Black tea still leads in terms of global production volume, but green tea has seen a slight but gradual gain in share over the last 10 years. According to the London-based International Tea Committee (ITC), the share of green tea production has increased from about 30 percent to 33 percent. Estimates put the world’s total green tea production at 2.1 million metric tonnes (mmt) in 2021.

China drives green tea production, contributing over 1.8 mmt. This makes the Middle Kingdom the provider of over 85 percent of the world’s green tea. In relation to its own production, however, green tea comprises about 60 percent of its total annual production. Green tea holds the largest share in terms of China’s output, with black tea being the next closest at about 14 percent of annual China production. It is worth noting, however, that China’s classification system for teas distinguishes between green tea and flower tea. Because of this, all forms of jasmine green tea – from specialty jasmine green pearl teas to jasmine green tea fannings – are not counted towards the green tea totals but are designated as flower teas. Depending on interpretation, this can serve to under-report the actual amount of green tea produced.

Japan is the next best-known home of green tea production, contributing about 0.8 mmt of green tea per year. The majority of Japan’s green tea comes in two forms. Sencha accounts for a little over one half, and bancha makes up more than a third. Matcha (tencha) and gyokuro each contribute less than 4 percent of the total volume but their average value in USD per kg is more than double that of sencha.

Other well-known tea-producing countries, including India, Argentina, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Turkey, and Vietnam either do not parse out green tea production from black, or mainly focus on reporting green tea exports.

China leads in exports

As may be expected, China also dominates in green tea exports. China’s 2021 green tea exports totaled 0.31 MMT, or nearly 85 percent of China’s total exports. Value-wise, however, green tea exports represent roughly 60 percent of China’s exports. China’s average annual export rates reached USD $5.55/kg, with green tea averaging $4.44/kg compared to black tea at $10.25/kg. China’s main export partner has remained Morocco for several years now, as the country has relatively high per-capita tea consumption and a longstanding tradition of drinking green tea (eg Moroccan mint tea).

Vietnam appears to be one of the next largest green tea exporters, though nowhere close to China’s volume. In 2021, Vietnam exported 62,000 mt of green tea, or just shy of half of the nation’s total exports. Vietnam’s top tea export destinations include Pakistan, The Republic of China (ROC), and Russia. It is unclear as to the share of green tea exports among these countries, especially when Pakistan and Russia are known for purchasing significantly more black tea than green.

Japan, on the other hand, exported over 6,000 mt of predominantly green tea. As mentioned above, Japan’s production is largely divided between sencha and bancha. About one-third of Japan’s green tea exports went to the US.

Indonesia, Sri Lanka and India each exported between 5,500 and 3,000 mt of green tea. Indonesia’s major tea export partners include Malaysia, Russia, and the US. Sri Lanka’s top export destinations include Iraq, Turkey, and Russia. India’s three largest tea export countries include Russia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)

US imports of green tea grows

Of the world’s top three tea-importing countries (Pakistan, Russia, and the US), the US provides the clearest picture of green tea imports. Of Russia’s 135,000 mt of imported tea, at least 85 percent of it is black tea. Similarly, tea imports into the US in 2022 showed about 14 percent, or 16,618 mt was green tea. Of that total, nearly 7,000 mt originated from China. A further dissection of US green tea imports reveals that 1,800 mt was organic green tea, of which about 1,000 mt came from China.

Producing countries consume the most tea

Considering that the world’s top two producing countries (China and India) generally keep about 85 percent of their produced tea within their borders, these countries hold sway over global green tea consumption. China’s domestic sales of green tea reached 1.3 mmt. During that period, China only imported about 4,300 mt of green tea.

India’s green tea volumes also remained available for the domestic market. As with China, at least 85 percent of India’s total tea production volume didn’t leave the country. This proportion held true for green tea as well. About 15 percent of India’s green production was exported, leaving about 85 percent within its borders.

The US also held relatively steady in an 85/15 split of black-to-green tea consumption, with more emphasis placed on iced tea.

In relation to per capita consumption of tea, some of the major countries increased their consumption over the past ten years. Most notably was Morocco, a major green tea consumer, which increased an estimated 15 percent per head. China’s per capita also saw a significant rise from just shy of 1 kg per head to roughly 1.75 kg.

The outlook for green tea is positive

Compared to black tea, green tea consumption still appears modest but with positive signs for the future. The UK has seen declines in black tea consumption, while green tea has remained relatively steady. Green tea in the US also holds promise, as consumers are attracted to the reported health benefits of green tea.

The Japanese tea industry still sees potential for the further expansion of matcha exports, with matcha being viewed by international markets as a more premium and health-forward tea option. The nation has seen decreases in production of leaf tea and increases in powdered teas and teas used for RTD. The Japanese government has established initiatives to upgrade tea farms, modernize tea harvesting and processing, and promote Japanese teas in the US, Europe, and Asia Pacific.

China’s expansion of new tea fields also indicates a continued trend toward steady production of green teas. China’s internal estimates classify about one third of the nation’s current tea plants as over 30 years old and recommend removing or replacing these less-productive bushes. A gradual phasing out of old fields and the advent of new fields coming online will help keep China on top as a green tea powerhouse.

• Jason Walker is marketing director of Firsd Tea North America. Prior to his work with Firsd Tea, Walker served in a variety of roles in tea and beverage business capacities. His experience includes business services for small tea companies, a top-ranked online destination for tea consumer education and co-founding a coffee business. His insights draw upon his diverse range of experience in sales, operations and management in the tea world. He may be reached at: jason.walker@firsdtea.com.

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The Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased by 8.9% and 11.1%, to 238.39 and 229.73 US cents/lb, respectively, in February 2023. However, the Brazilian Naturals and the Robustas gained 14.8% and 8.3%, reaching an average of 195.18 and 103.93 US cents/lb. The London Futures market grew 9.8% whilst ICE’s New York market shrank by 13.2%. The Colombian Milds-Other Milds and Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differentials are leading the way, shrinking 28.8% and 11.6% to 8.66 and 43.21 US cents/lb, respectively. The Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential also lost 5.9%, averaging 34.55 US cents/lb for the month of February 2023.

Conversely, the Colombian Milds-Robustas and Other Milds-Robustas differentials grew by 9.4% and 13.6%, closing the month at 134.46 and 125.80 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals-Robustas differential presented the strongest growth of 23.2% from January 2023 to February 2023, reaching 91.25 US cents/lb.

The arbitrage, as measured between the New York and London Futures market expanded 17.2%, closing in at 86.67 US cents/lb in February 2023, from 73.97 US cents/lb in January 2023.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP increased 0.1 percentage point between January 2023 and February 2023, reaching 8.7%. Robustas and the London Futures market were the least volatile amongst all group indicators, at 6.2% and 7.8%, respectively, in February 2023. The Brazilian Naturals’ volatility was the highest amongst the group indicators, averaging 12.1%, a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month. Whilst the volatility of the Colombian Milds stayed constant at 9.2%, the Other Milds, contracted 0.1 percentage point to 8.8%. The variation of the New York Futures market’s volatility increased by 0.3 percentage point, averaging 12.6% for the month of February 2023.

The New York certified stocks decreased by 5.1% from the previous month, closing in at 0.86 million 60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.19 million 60-kg bags, representing an increase of 13.8%.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in January 2023 totalled 8.69 million bags, as compared with 10.23 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 15.0%. The downturn was spread across all coffee groups. As a result, the cumulative total exports of green beans for coffee year 2022/23 is decreasing at an accelerated rate, down 5.4%, as compared with 1.8% decrease for the first three months of the current coffee year. The cumulative total for 2022/23 to January is 35.86 million bags as compared with 37.9 million bags over the same period a year ago.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 17.7% in January 2023 to 1.59 million bags from 1.93 million bags in the same period last year. This is the fourth consecutive month of negative growth for green bean exports of the Other Milds since the start of the current coffee year. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports fell by 18.1% in the first four months of coffee year 2022/23 to 5.11 million bags from 6.24 million bags over the same period in coffee year 2021/22. The region’s latest decline was due to a confluence of downturns in El Salvador (-63.4%), Guatemala (-40.5%) and Nicaragua (-23.2%) against upturns in Honduras (+2.8%) and Mexico (+106.7%), with the negative growth rates of the former group of origins overwhelming the gains of the latter.

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals fell in January 2023, falling by 17.2% to 2.78 million bags. For the first four months of coffee year 2022/23, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals amounted to 13.1 million bags, down 0.1% from 13.11 million bags over the same period a year ago. Not surprisingly, the shifting fortunes of the Brazilian Naturals reflected the changes in Brazil’s green bean exports, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, which also fell in January 2023 (down 18.1%) to 2.52 million bags from 3.08 million bags in January 2022.

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 20.9% to 0.87 million bags in January 2023 from 1.1 million bags in January 2022, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 19.4% in January 2023. As a result of the sharp downturn, exports of the Colombian Milds from October 2022 to January 2023 were down by 15.9%, at 3.68 million bags, as compared with 4.37 million bags in the first four months of coffee year 2021/22.

Green bean exports of the Robustas amounted to 3.45 million bags in January 2023, as compared with 3.84 million bags in January 2022, down 10.1%, bookending the growth rates of the first four months of the current coffee year, which had opened with a 6.8% downturn, followed by two consecutive months of positive growth. As a result, the shipments in the first four months of coffee year 2022/23 were down 1.4% to 13.97 million bags from 14.18 million bags in the same period in coffee year 2021/22.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In January 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 19.9% to 3.93 million bags, driven by the three main origins of the region, Brazil, Colombia and Peru, which saw their combined exports fall by 20.9%. The two major origins of the region, Brazil and Colombia, saw their respective shipments of coffee decrease by 16.0% and 18.8% in January 2023, falling to 2.86 million bags and 0.85 million bags, respectively, from 3.4 million bags and 1.05 million bags in January 2022. Peru is continuing to see its exports fall by a significantly greater rate, plunging by 63.9% in January 2023, which follows 41.5% downturns in November and December 2022. For Colombia, the sharp downturns continue to be linked to local production conditions, which have been hampered by persistent bad weather linked to the La Niña phenomenon.

In January 2023, Colombia’s production recorded zero growth, following four consecutive months of negative growth, leading the total coffee output for the twelve months to January 2023 to decrease by 10% to 11.08 million bags from 12.36 million bags in the same period a year ago. In Peru, the negative impact of the weather on the origin’s exports has already been addressed in recent issues of the CMR, with social unrest in the country being an additional causal component introduced in the January 2023 issue. However, the size of the plunge in export volume in January 2023 is technical and reflects the anomalous export volume observed in January 2022, in which 435,961 bags of coffee were shipped, the largest export volume for the month of January on record and 53% greater than the second-largest. The average export volume over the past six years, 2016–2021, is 195,565 bags; measured against this, the January 2023 exports are down 19.5%, which is more in line with the region and Brazil and Colombia’s performances.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania decreased by 17.2% to 3.45 million bags in January 2023 and were down 3.3% to 14.42 million bags in the first four months of coffee year 2022/23. The region’s top three origins are the main drivers for the latest downturn, with the exports of Vietnam down 12.7% to 2.45 million bags from 2.8 million bags in January 2022. Likewise, India and Indonesia’s exports declined by 39.7% to 0.34 million bags from 0.56 million bags and 18.8% to 0.58 million bags from 0.72 million bags in January 2022, respectively.

The New Year and Lunar New Year holidays coincided in January 2023, a rare event, leading to a shortfall of business days, thus explaining the decrease in exports from Indonesia and Vietnam.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa increased by 19.5% to 1.11 million bags in January 2023 from 0.93 million bags in January 2022. For the first four months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 4.22 million bags as compared with 4.15 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, up 1.4%. Uganda is the main driver behind the jump in the region’s exports, with coffee shipments from the region’s largest producer and exporter increasing by 22.9% to 0.49 million bags, as compared with 0.4 million bags in January 2022. Significantly, it ended 12 consecutive months of decreasing exports, which had led the origin’s cumulative total exports over the past year (January–December 2022) to fall to 5.63 million bags as compared with 6.77 million bags between January and December 2021, down 16.9% or 1.14 million bags.

Drought in most of the coffee growing regions has led to a lower and shorter main harvest season in central and eastern parts of Uganda and hence lower output; however, exports are up in January 2023 because of a stocks drawdown on the back of rising prices for Robustas which in turn were responding to the reduced global supply, especially from Indonesia and Vietnam. Côte d’Ivoire and Tanzania are two other origins of note for January 2023, with their exports up 105.8% and 17.8%, respectively.

In January 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 5.0% to 1.21 million bags as compared with 1.27 million in January 2022. For the first four months of the current coffee year, exports are also down 11.4%, totalling 2.75 million bags as compared with 3.1 million bags in October–January 2021/22. As mentioned previously, the region’s latest decline, the fourth in a row since the start of coffee year 2022/23, was due to a confluence of downturns in El Salvador (-58.3%), Guatemala (-40.9%) and Nicaragua (-22.5%) against upturns in Honduras (+2.8%) and Mexico (+61.4%), with the negative growth of the former group overwhelming the gains of the latter. The 2.8% increase for Honduras is the first uptick since January 2022, and reflects the fact that the origin finds itself deep in its harvesting season with a build-up of sufficient supply to meet its contractual obligations.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 3.0% in January 2023 to 0.95 million bags from 0.98 million bags in January 2022. In the first four months of coffee year 2022/23, a total of 3.75 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 11.2% from the 4.22 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee was 10.1% (measured on a moving 12-month average) in January 2023, as in January 2022. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee and shipped 0.34 million bags in January 2023.

Exports of roasted beans were down 9.2% in January 2023 to 61,683 bags, as compared with 67,918 bags in January 2022. The cumulative total for coffee year 2022/23 to January 2023 was 278,977 bags, as compared with 289,578 bags in the same period a year ago.

Production and Consumption
The latest provisional estimate for total production in coffee year 2021/22 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags, a 2.1% decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags in the previous coffee year.
World coffee consumption is projected to grow by 3.3% to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2021/22 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020/21. In 2021/22, consumption is estimated to exceed production by 3.1 million bags.

The ICO will be publishing shortly new consolidated revised values for production and consumption for 2021/22.

For the full report, visit: icocoffee.org.

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The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) gained 0.3% from November to December 2022, averaging 157.19 US cents/lb for the latter, whilst posting a median value of 157.73 US cents/lb. In December 2022, the I-CIP fluctuated between 151.95 and 162.31 US cents/lb.

Average prices for all group indicators remained stable, with a slight increase in December 2022. The Colombian Milds, Brazilian Naturals and Robustas increased by 0.4%, 1.5% and 1.3%, respectively, month on month in December 2022. The group indicators respectively averaged 224.12, 169.00 and 93.76 US cents/lb in December. The Other Milds fell by 1.7% to 210.24 US cents/lb. Stability in the market is in part due to the average of the 2nd and 3rd positions of the ICE New York and London futures market remaining stable.

The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential sprung back up 48.2% to 13.88 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals and Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals both declined by 2.8% and 12.8% to 55.12 and 41.24 US cents/lb in December 2022, respectively. The Colombian Milds Robustas differential remained stable, losing only 0.2 percentage points and reaching 130.36 US cents/lb for the last month of 2022. Falling 3.9% over the course of the month was the Other Milds-Robustas differential, retracting 3.9%, to 116.48 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals-Robustas differential gained 1.8% from November to December 2022, reaching 75.24 US cents/lb. The arbitrage between the New York and London Futures gained 0.2%, closing in at 82.26 US cents/lb in December 2022, up from 82.13 US cents/lb in November 2022.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP decreased 0.2 percentage points between November and December 2022, reaching 9.1%. Robustas and the London futures market were the least volatile amongst all group indicators, at 5.3% and 4.8%, respectively, in December 2022. The Brazilian Naturals’ volatility was the highest amongst the group indicators, averaging 12.1%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month. The variation in volatility of the Colombian Milds and Other Milds for November to December 2022 is 0.6 to 11.6% and 0.1 to 9.7%, respectively. The New York futures market remained the most volatile, averaging 12.5% for the month of December 2022.

The New York certified stocks increased by 46.6% from the previous month, closing in at 0.87 million 60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.08 million 60-kg bags, representing a decrease of 25.5%.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in November 2022 totalled 9.21 million bags, as compared with 8.31 million bags in the same month of the previous year, up 10.8%. The positive growth was driven by the Brazilian Naturals and Robustas, which saw their exports increase by double digits, while the Colombian and Other Milds suffered from double-digit decreases. As a result, the cumulative total exports of green beans for coffee year 2022/23 bounced back into black, up 3.5% as compared with the 3.5% decrease for the first month of the current coffee year. The cumulative total for 2022/23 to November is 17.63 million bags as compared with 17.03 million bags over the same period a year ago.

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals bounced back sharply in November 2022, rocketing up by 34.5% to 3.67 million bags, following a lackluster 0.5% increase in October 2022 as compared with the same periods in the previous coffee year. For the first two months of coffee year 2022/23, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals amounted to 7.11 million bags, up 15.6% from 6.15 million bags over the same period a year ago. Not surprisingly, the shifting fortunes of the Brazilian Naturals reflected the changes in Brazil’s green bean exports, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, which also bounced back in November 2022 (up 32%) as compared with October 2022 (up 1.9%).

Green bean exports of Robustas amounted to 3.58 million bags in November 2022, as compared with 3.17 million bags in November 2021, up 12.9%, a sharp turnaround from the 5.5% decrease in October 2022. This meant that the shipments in the first two months of coffee year 2022/23 were up 4% to 6.38 million bags versus 6.13 million bags in the same period in coffee year 2021/22

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 15.1% in November 2022 to 1.1 million bags from 1.29 million bags in the same period last year. This is the second consecutive month of negative growth for green bean exports of the Other Milds since the start of the new coffee year, having already fallen by 7.1% in October 2022. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports fell by 11% in the first two months of coffee year 2022/23 to 2.36 million bags from 2.65 million bags over the same period in coffee year 2021/22.

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 22.8% to 0.86 million bags in November 2022 from 1.12 million bags in November 2021, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this coffee group, whose green bean exports were down 26.7% in November 2022. As a result of the sharp downturn, exports of the Colombian Milds from October to November 2022 were down by 15.2%, at 1.78 million bags, as compared with 2.1 million bags in the first two months of coffee year 2021/22.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In November 2022, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee increased by 4.7% to 4.96 million bags. There were wide variations in the performances of November 2022 exports among the major origins of the region, with Brazil (up 25.4%) being the best performing, and Peru (down 41.5%) and Colombia (down 24.2%) the worst performing. Improved shipping conditions have been reported as the reason behind the strong increase in Brazil’s exports, but for Peru and Colombia the sharp downturns are linked to local production conditions. Persistent bad weather linked to the La Niña phenomenon has caused Colombia’s November 2022 coffee output to drop by 6%, the country’s third consecutive month of negative growth, with a consequent impact on exports. In Peru, irregular weather patterns have led to prolonged and intermittent rains, which impacted the regular development of cherries and flowers, leading to coffee trees having both cherries and flowers concurrently and thus spreading out the harvesting period. Moreover, intermittent rains also hampered the drying process, having a negative impact on the quality of dried beans. These all affected the supply of coffee beans and contributed to November 2022 having the lowest volume of exports since 2007, when only 244,325 bags were shipped from Peru.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania increased by 19% to 3.78 million bags in November 2022 and were up 3.6% to 6.57 million bags in the first two months of coffee year 2022/23. The region’s sharp increase is explained by Vietnam (up 19.8%) and Indonesia (up 48.7%), the largest and the second-largest producers and exporters of coffee from Asia and Oceania, shipping 2.2 million bags and 0.89 million bags, respectively. However, the region’s third-largest exporter, India, saw its exports decrease in November 2022, down 0.8% to 0.58 million bags from 0.59 million bags in November 2021.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa increased by 6.8% to 1.09 million bags in November 2022 from 1.02 million bags in November 2021. For the first two months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 2.16 million bags as compared with 2.15 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. In November 2022, Uganda’s exports fell for the 11th consecutive month, decreasing by 14.8% to 0.45 million bags from 0.52 million bags in November 2022. Uganda’s cumulative total exports over the past 11 months (January–November 2022) amount to 5.21 million bags as compared with 6.23 million bags over the same period a year ago (January–November 2021), down 16.4% or 1.02 million bags. Drought in most of the coffee growing regions, leading to a lower and shorter main harvest season in central and eastern parts of Uganda and hence lower output, is continuing to hamper Ugandan coffee exports. Despite Uganda’s large negative push downwards on Africa’s coffee exports in November 2022, positive pulls upwards by Côte d’Ivoire (up 111.1%) and Ethiopia (up 29.2%), the region’s third- and second-largest producers and exporters, supported by Kenya (up 16.6%) and Rwanda (up 63.6%), were sufficiently robust to ensure that the region’s exports grew in November 2022, despite the downturn in Uganda’s exports.

In November 2022, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 7.1% to 0.41 million bags as compared with 0.45 million in November 2021. For the first two months of the current coffee year, exports are down 13.3%, totalling 0.89 million bags as compared with 1.02 million bags in October–November 2021/22. The region’s decline in November was due to Honduras, down 50%, which is struggling with leaf-rust, or roya, which has hit the industry’s harvests.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 3.2% in November 2022 to 0.97 million bags from 1.0 million bags in November 2021. In the first two months of coffee year 2022/23, a total of 1.81 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 12.9% from the 2.07 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee was 9.0% (measured on a moving 12-month average) in November 2022, down from 9.1% in November 2021. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 0.27 million bags in November 2022, followed by India with 0.19 million bags and Indonesia with 0.15 million bags exported over the same period.

Exports of roasted beans were down 7.5% in November 2022 to 68,865 bags, as compared with 74,411 bags in November 2021. The cumulative total for coffee year 2022/23 to November 2022 was 130,953 bags, as compared with 149,108 bags in same period a year ago.

Production and Consumption
The latest provisional estimate for total production in coffee year 2021/22 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags, a 2.1% decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags in the previous coffee year.

World coffee consumption is projected to grow by 3.3% to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2021/22 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020/21. In 2021/22, consumption is estimated to exceed production by 3.1 million bags.

For the full report, visit: ico.org.

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The I-CIP lost 10.6% from September to October 2022, averaging 178.54 US cents/lb for the latter, whilst posting a median value of 177.22 US cents/lb. In October 2022, the I-CIP fluctuated in between 159.30 and 194.92 US cents/lb.

Average prices for all groups indicators decreased in October 2022. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds, decreased by 10.9% and 10.2%, respectively, month-on-month in October. The former averaged 261.95 US cents/lb in October 2022, whilst the latter averaged 240.08 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals declined the most within all four groups, falling 12.4% to 192.27 US cents/lb. The Robustas averaged 103.01 US cents/lb for the month of October, a 7.5% decline from the previous month. The downturns are in part due to the average second and third positions of the ICE New York futures market, which lost 12.1% in October 2022 versus September 2022. The average of the second and third positions of the ICE Futures Europe for the Robustas also shrank by 8.3%.

The Colombian Milds-Other Milds and the Brazilian Naturals-Robusta differential both took the hardest hit from September to October 2022, retracting 17.8% and 17.5%. The differential for the aforementioned period shrank from 26.60 to 21.87 US cents/lb and 108.23 to 89.25 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential declined by 6.5% to 69.68 US cents/lb in October 2022. The Colombian Milds-Robustas differential shrank by 13.0% to 158.94 US cents/lb. The strongest differential amongst all groups is the Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential, declining only 0.2%, to 47.82 US cents/lb. Lastly, the Other Milds-Robustas differential lost 12.2% from September to October 2022.

The average monthly differential stood at 137.07 US cents/lb, down from 156.13 in September 2022. The arbitrage between the New York and London Futures markets shrank by 15.4%, falling to 99.56 US Cents/lb in October 2022 from 117.74 US cents/lb in September 2022 as the price decline was more marked for Arabica than Robusta, marking a reversal of the previous trend.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP decreased 1.2 percentage points between September and October 2022, reaching a low of 7.1%. Robustas and the London futures market presented the lowest volatility amongst all group indicators, at 5.8% and 5.7%, respectively, in October 2022. The Brazilian Naturals volatility was the highest amongst the group indicators, averaging 9.6%, a 1.3 percentage point decrease from the previous month. The variation in volatility of the Colombian Milds and Other Milds for September to October 2022 is -0.6 to 7.4% and -1.0 to 7.6%, respectively. The New York Futures market remained the most volatile, albeit posting a decrease of 1.4 percentage points, averaging 9.8% for the month of October 2022.

The New York certified stocks decreased 9.3% from the previous month, closing in at 0.41 million bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.52 million bags, representing a decrease of 4.3%.

Export by Coffee Groups
Global exports of green beans were down 1.1% in coffee year 2021/22, totalling 116.07 million bags from 117.32 million bags in coffee year 2020/21. This marks the third largest annual exports in volume on record, with the biggest ever exports having been seen in coffee year 2018/19 when 121.32 million bags of green beans were shipped. Fundamentally, the decrease in green bean exports reflects reduced world coffee production, which is estimated to be down 2.1% to 167.17 million bags for coffee year 2021/22, as compared with an estimated 170.83 million bags in coffee year 2020/21.

The performances of the four groupings were varied in coffee year 2021/22, with the Brazilian Naturals and Colombian Milds down and the Other Milds and Robustas up. The exports of the Brazilian Naturals were down by 4.3% to 37.83 million bags in coffee year 2021/22 from 39.54 million bags in coffee year 2020/21. The downturn was driven by Brazil, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, with its total green bean exports decreasing by 12.5% in coffee year 2021/22. An estimated smaller crop harvested during its Arabica ‘off season’ and issues with containers and shipping reported earlier in the coffee year are, in turn, the main reasons behind Brazil’s poor performance.

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 7.1% in coffee year 2021/22, falling to 12.14 million bags from 2022 from 13.07 million bags in the previous coffee year. This is the lowest volume of exports since 2015, when total shipments of green beans totalled 12.78 million bags. The main origin contributing to the overall drop for the group can be traced to Colombia, the biggest producer and exporter of the Colombian Milds, with the country’s exports falling to 10.84 million bags, the lowest level since 2014. The fall in Colombia’s exports is linked to unfavourable weather conditions, reducing the available coffee supply in the country, with the total output estimated to be down 13% in coffee year 2021/22 to 11.68 million bags.

Shipments of the Other Milds increased by 1.3% in coffee year 2021/22, rising to 23.9 million bags from 23.59 million bags in the previous coffee year. The small uptick in the exports of the Other Milds was mainly the result of a confluence of struggles between Honduras and Guatemala, the first and third largest exporters of the Other Milds, and Peru and Nicaragua, the second and fourth largest exporters of the Other Milds which both recorded a stellar performance.

In Honduras, the coffee industry has been struggling with leaf-rust that hit the industry’s harvests, while Guatemala has been dealing with impact of a lower production, due primarily to climatic reasons and availability of labour, which lowered the exports by 7.6% and 20.0%, respectively, to 3.41 million bags and 4.7 million bags. For Nicaragua, coffee year 2021/22 has been a record year, as it shipped 2.87 million bags of green beans, the highest level on record, while for Peru total exports of green beans were 4.58 million bags, the second highest on record, just behind the 4.69 million bags shipped in coffee year 2011/12.

Exports of the Robustas totalled 42.2 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, up 2.6% as compared with 41.12 million bags in coffee year 2020/21. Vietnam and India were the two main positive highlights for coffee year 2021/22 for the Robustas, with the respective exports of green beans increasing by 15.1% and 26.1% to 26.78 million bags and 5.01 million bags. Burundi and Uganda were the two main negative highlights, with their respective exports of green beans decreasing by 62.1% and 10.0% to 134,000 bags and 5.85 million bags.

Export by Regions
In October 2021 to September 2022, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 7.1% to 55.31 million bags. Brazil is the reason for the drop in exports, with shipments from the country declining by 11.4% to 38.12 million bags. This is the first time since 2017 that Brazil’s annual exports of all forms of coffee have fallen below the 40 million bags mark. As explained earlier in this report, a smaller crop harvested during its Arabica “off-season” and problems with containers and shipping explain the large drop in exports in Brazil.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania increased by 12.8% to 43.86 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. Vietnam’s exports increased by 14.8% to 28.19 million bags from 24.56 million bags in coffee year 2020/21, which made the region’s biggest producer and exporter also the single largest absolute contributor to Asia & Oceania’s strong gains in exports in coffee year 2021/22. India’s exports of all forms of coffee jumped 21.7% in coffee year 2021/22, rising to 7.24 million bags from 5.95 million bags in coffee year 2020/21. Indonesia, the third largest producer and exporter of the region, saw its exports of all forms of coffee increase marginally to 6.92 million bags in coffee year 2021/22 from 6.82 million bags in the previous coffee year.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 5.1% to 13.73 million bags in coffee year 2021/22 from 14.48 million bags in the previous coffee year. As explained earlier within this Report, Burundi and Uganda were the two main contributors to the region’s downturn. Uganda’s decrease in exports is explained by the impact of drought in most of the coffee growing regions, which led to a shorter main harvest season in central and eastern parts of Uganda, and hence lower output and exports. Ethiopia, the second largest producer and exporter of the region, saw its exports of all forms of coffee increase marginally to 4.02 million bags in coffee year 2021/22 from 3.98 million bags in the previous coffee year.

In October 2021 to September 2022, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 3.3% to 16.09 million bags as compared with 16.63 million in coffee year 2020/21. Honduras was the single largest contributor to the region’s downturn, with the country’s exports of all forms of coffee down 20.0%, a loss of 1.17 million bags versus the volume shipped in coffee year 2020/21. Costa Rica and Guatemala were the next two biggest contributors, with their absolute decreases recorded at 50,576 bags and 280,445 bags, respectively.

Export by Forms of Coffee
Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 6.1% in coffee year 2021/22 to 12.1 million bags from 11.4 million bags in coffee year 2020/21. The share of soluble coffee of the total exports of all forms of coffee was 9.4% for the year, the highest on record. Brazil was the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 3.89 million bags, followed by India with 2.22 million bags, with Indonesia in third place at 1.66 million bags exported in coffee year 2021/22.

Exports of roasted beans increased by 5.0% in coffee year 2021/22 to 0.82 million bags.

Production and Consumption
The estimated outlook for total production in coffee year 2021/22 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags, a 2.1% decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags in the previous coffee year.

World coffee consumption was projected to grow by 3.3% to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2021/22 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020/21. In 2021/22, consumption was expected to exceed production by 3.1 million bags.

For the full report, visit: ico.org.

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Green Coffee Price
The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) lost 0.2% from August to September 2022, averaging 199.63 US cents/lb for the latter, whilst posting a median value of 198.43 US cents/lb. In September 2022, the I-CIP fluctuated in between 193.28 and 206.37 US cents/lb.

Average prices for all groups indicators decreased in September 2022, except for the Robustas, which had an uptick of 1.6% from August to September 2022. The Robustas averaged 111.36 US cents/lb for the month of September. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds, decreased by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, month-on-month in September. The former averaged 294.09 US cents/lb in September 2022, whilst the latter averaged 267.49 US cents/lb. The upturns are in part due to the average 2nd and 3rd positions of the ICE New York futures market, which lost 0.1% in September 2022 over August 2022. The average of the 2nd and 3rd positions of the ICE (International Coffee Exchange) Futures Europe for the Robustas grew by 1.8%.

The Brazilian Naturals-Robusta differential took the hardest hit from August to September 2022, retracting 3.6% from 112.26 to 108.23 US cents/lb as growth of the Robustas outpaced the Brazilian Naturals. The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential sustained a 2.3% loss for the aforementioned period, whilst the Colombian Milds-Robustas differential shrank by 1.8%. The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential grew by 1% to 74.50 US cents/lb in September 2022. The strongest growth among all the differentials was observed for the Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential, gaining 3.0%, ranging 46.52 to 47.90 US cents/lb for their respective monthly averages. Lastly, the Other Milds-Robustas differential lost 1.7% from August to September 2022. The average of the monthly differential stood at 156.13 US cents/lb, down from 158.78 in August 2022.

The arbitrage between the New York and London Futures markets shrunk by 1.7%, falling to 117.74 US Cents/lb in September 2022 from 119.79 US cents/lb in August 2022.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP decreased 2.0 percentage points between August and September 2022, reaching a low of 8.3%. Robustas and the London futures market presented the lowest volatility amongst all group indicators, at 7.3% and 7.0% in September 2022. The Brazilian Naturals volatility, was the highest amongst the group indicators, averaging 10.9%, a 2.4 percentage point decrease from the previous month. The variation in volatility of the Colombian Milds and Other Milds for August to September 2022 is -2.0 to 8.0% and -2.8 to 8.6%, respectively. The New York futures market remained the most volatile, albeit posting a decrease of 3.4 percentage points, averaging 11.2% for the month of September 2022.

The New York certified stocks decreased 37.2% from the previous month, closing in at 0.45 million bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.59 million bags, representing a decrease of 0.8%.

Export by Coffee Groups
Global exports of green beans in August 2022 totalled 8.83 million bags, compared with 9.17 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 3.7%. The downturn was spread across all groups of coffee, with the exception of the Brazilian Naturals, which saw a 7.1% increase in August 2022 as compared with the same month a year ago. The second consecutive month of negative growth has pushed the cumulative total exports of green beans for the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 further into red, down 1.0% as compared to 0.7% decrease for the first 10 months of the current coffee year. The cumulative total for 2021/22 to August is 107.05 million bags as compared with 108.13 million bags over the same period a year ago.

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 23.0% to 0.86 million bags in August 2022 from 1.12 million bags in August 2021, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 25.6% in August 2022. As a result of the relatively sharp downturn, exports of the Colombian Milds in October 2021–August 2022 were down by 5.7% at 11.32 million bags, as compared with 12.0 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2020/21. Colombia exported 0.79 million bags of green beans in August 2022, the lowest August exports since 0.54 million bags were shipped in 2012.

The Brazilian Naturals bounced back in August with a 7.1% increase, following a 4.6% fall in July 2022, exporting 2.85 million bags as compared with 2.66 million bags in August 2021. The upturn was driven by Brazil, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, with its total green bean exports increasing by 4.6% in August 2022 to 2.44 million bags. However, the cumulative total exports of the Brazilian Naturals for coffee year 2021/22 to August 2022 is down 5.8% at 34.52 million bags, as compared with 36.66 million bags.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 3.7% in August 2022 to 1.94 million bags from 2.01 million bags in the same period last year. This is the fifth consecutive months of fall. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports continued to increase but at a declining rate, falling to 1.3% in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 (22.09 million bags vs 21.08 million bags) from 2.7% in the first 10 months of the same coffee year. Guatemala and Honduras were the two main origins responsible for the latest fall in exports of the Other Milds, with their exports of green beans plunging by 27.7% and 41.3%, respectively.

In Honduras, the coffee industry is struggling with leaf-rust, or roya, which has hit the industry’s harvests, with the country’s coffee association lowering the exports outlook for coffee year 2021/22, twice already, from 5.823 million bags to 4.61 million bags. Guatemala is also dealing with impact of a lower production, due mainly to climatic reasons and availability of labour, that is having a knock-on effect on the country’s exports.

Exports of the Robustas totalled 3.17 million bags in August 2022, as compared with 3.38 million bags in August 2021, down 6.0%. Exports of green beans for the first 11 months of the current and previous coffee years for the Robustas were 42.57 million bags and 41.22 million bags, respectively, up 3.8%. Ethiopia and India are the two main origins behind the latest downturn, suffering from 16.0% and 13.1% decreases, respectively, in August 2022, with their total green bean exports at 0.43 million bags and 0.37 million bags, respectively. India, especially, has had a good year so far, with the total exports of green beans for the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 increasing by 31.1% to 4.62 million bags as compared to 3.53 million bags, an increase of 1.1 million bags. As a result, the production/export ratio is falling sharply, down from 1.48 in coffee year 2020/21 to 1.12 in coffee year 2021/22. The ratio is a good indication of supply availability. Therefore, it is possible that the sharp fall in India’s August 2022 exports is a reflection of the supply availability towards the end of a stellar year.

Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 13.2% in August 2022 to 0.98 million bags from 0.87 million bags in August 2021. In the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22, a total of 11.06 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing an increase of 6.3% from the 10.4 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. The share of soluble coffee of the total exports of all forms of coffee was 9.3% (measured on a moving 12- month average) in August 2022. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 3.58 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22, followed by India with 2.0 million bags, with Indonesia in third place at 1.53 million bags exported over the same period.

Exports of roasted beans increased by 59.9% in August 2022 to 89,548 bags from 55,995 bags in August 2021. The cumulative total for coffee year 2021/22 to August 2022 was 0.75 million bags, as compared with 0.72 million bags in same period a year ago.

Regional Outlook
In October 2021 to August 2022, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 23.3% to 50.46 million bags. Brazil and Colombia are the reasons for this large drop in exports. During this period, shipments from Brazil declined by 27.2% to 34.74 million bags from 47.4 million bags in October-August 2020/21. The volume of exports from Colombia is down 18.7% in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 at 11.17 million bags, from 13.74 million bags in the same period a year ago. A smaller crop harvested during its Arabica ‘off-season’, along with problems with containers and shipping, mainly noted during the middle of the current coffee year, explains the large drop in exports of all forms of coffee in Brazil, while the fall in the exports of Colombia is linked to persistent unfavourable weather conditions reducing the available supply of coffee in the country. Nevertheless, Peru is enjoying a good year, with exports of all forms of coffee expanding by 6.1% in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 to 4.05 million bags from 3.82 million bags in the same period a year ago.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia & Oceania increased by 2.7% to 3.25 million bags in August 2022 but were down 1.5% to 40.86 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22. Indonesia was the origin behind the uptick for August, with its exports growing by 20.1% to 0.65 million bags from 0.54 million bags in August 2021. However, the country is also the main reason behind the negative cumulative growth of the region for the season so far: exports of all forms of coffee are down 17.8% to 6.24 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 as compared with 7.59 million bags in the same period a year ago. Vietnam, the region’s biggest producer and export, made a margin gain in August, with the origin’s exports increasing by 0.1% to 1.89 million bags, bringing the year’s total (October 2021 to August 2022) to 26.6 million bags, up 1.8% year-on-year. India’s shipments were down 6.0% in August 2022 to 0.57 million bags, however the total for the first 11 months remains up at 8.5%, 6.64 million bags versus 6.12 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 11.9% to 1.24 million bags in August 2022 from 1.4 million bags in August 2021. For the first 11 months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 12.48 million bags as compared with 15.44 million bags in coffee year 2020/21. Uganda is the main source of the downturn for the region in August, with its exports falling by 28.5% to 0.5 million bags as compared to 0.7 million bags in August 2021. The cumulative total for coffee year 2021/22 to August 2022 is also down, decreasing by 23.0% to 5.35 million bags from 6.94 million bags in the same period a year ago. The decrease in exports was mainly due to the impact of drought in most of the coffee growing regions, which led to a lower and shorter main harvest season in central and eastern parts of Uganda, and hence lower output.

In August 2022, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico & Central America were down 7.4% to 1.19 million bags as compared with 1.29 million in August 2021. For the first 11 months of the current coffee year, exports are down 13.0%, totalling 15.07 million bags as compared with 17.34 million bags in October–August 2020/21. The region’s sharp downturn in August was due Guatemala and Honduras, down 27.8% and 41.3%, respectively. For the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22, the total exports are 3.16 million bags and 4.53 million bags, for the two origins, respectively, down 15.6% and 24.0%. The reason for the poor performance of the two origins has already been explained in the “Exports by Coffee Groups” section above.

Production and Consumption
The provisional outlook for total production in coffee year 2021/22 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags, a 2.1% decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags in the previous coffee year. World coffee consumption is projected to grow by 3.3% to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2021/22 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020/21. In 2021/22, consumption is expected to exceed production by 3.1 million bags.

For the full report, visit: ico.org.

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The new Minister for Coffee is Joe Kuli, from Anglimp-South Waghi, in the central highlands region of Papa New Guinea. Kuli is the first ever person to hold the title of Minister for Coffee, not just in PNG, but across the world.

Kuli himself comes from the Waghi Valley, Jiwaka. The Waghi Valley used to be a huge coffee plantation, but which was abandoned and is now completely covered in bush.

Prime Minister Marape, on announcing Kuli’s new position, said, “Minister Kuli’s focus will be coffee, coffee and coffee. I want to drink coffee made in Goroka, Mt Hagen, Lae and other parts of the country. I want to see more coffee grown for export to the lucrative markets of the world.”

Coffee is the country’s second largest export, after palm oil, responsible for around 6% of the country’s GDP. Approximately a quarter of the population work on coffee plantations or run their own small coffee farms.

It’s also widely reported that, due to coffee’s value in an extremely poor country, there are regular instances of shipment hijackings, which can cause both large and small growers to lose up to half of their stock grown for export.

Over the last ten years, PNG’s commitment to exporting coffee has continued to expand, with government policies around soil quality, improved infrastructure and the education of farms all helping to make a real impact on the value and quality of Papa New Guinean coffee beans. Today, New Guinean beans can be found in everything from artisanal coffee shops to Nespresso Pods.

Papa New Guinea’s new minister for coffee is being welcomed by the country’s coffee growers and producers, in addition to international coffee providers. In recent years, Papa New Guinea’s coffee production has gone through turbulent changes, with some larger plantations being abandoned. Instead, more and more of the country’s coffee beans have been coming from smaller, independent farms which are struggling to meet an ever-growing demand.

“In our opinion,” said Rob Hodge, a director at United Kingdom-based Rave Coffee, “the announcement is great news for anyone who enjoys high-quality coffee. Papa New Guinea’s climate is perfect for growing famously well-rounded and smooth coffee beans, which can be made into absolutely stunning coffees. Today, Papa New Guinea coffee is already enjoyed around the world, and we’re extremely excited to see the country commit to increasing production, focusing on quality and helping to spread its incredible coffee flavours across the world.”

Papa New Guinea’s coffee beans are extremely popular in the United States, Australia, the UK and elsewhere in the world. They can be found in a wide range of products, from coffee subscriptions to simple flat whites you might enjoy in artisan coffee shops.

Hodge added that Papa New Guinea’s coffee industry is a great mixture of smaller farms and larger plantations. “While the larger plantations create great-tasting, simple coffees, the smaller producers typically create coffee beans with a more wild, temperamental flavour,” he said. “At Rave, we’ve been pushing PNG coffee beans for the last decade, and we’re extremely excited to introduce more beans originating from Papa New Guinea in our products.”

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Average prices for all groups’ indicators increased in August 2022. Robustas gained the most, expanding 9.2% from July to August 2022, raising to an average of 109.65 US cents/lb for the month. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds, increased by 3.4% and 4.9% respectively, month-on-month in August. The former averaged 295.66 US cents/lb in August 2022, whilst the latter averaged 268.43 US cents/lb. The upturns are in part due to the average second and third positions of the ICE New York futures market, which gained by 3.7% in August 2022 over July 2022. The average of the 2nd and 3rd positions of the ICE Futures Europe for Robustas grew substantially by 10.2%.

The Colombian Milds Other Milds differential took the hardest hit from July to August 2022, retracting 9.7% from 30.16 to 27.23 US cents/lb as growth of the Other Milds outpaced the Colombian Milds. Strong Other Milds growth can also be evaluated in the Other Milds Robustas differential as it gained 13.2%, up from 41.10 to 46.52 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds Brazilian Naturals continued its upwards trajectory of the past year, as the differential increased by 3.5% from 71.27 to 73.75 US cents/lb from July to August 2022. Despite the Robustas indicator price presenting strong growth, the Colombian Milds Robustas differential gained 0.2%, ranging from 185.63 to 186.01 US cents/lb for the aforementioned period.

Echoing strong growth of the Robustas group indicator, the Other Milds Robustas differential increased by 2.1% reaching 158.78 US cents/lb in August 2022 from 155.46 US cents/lb in the previous month. The Robustas group indicator did however manage to close the differential with the Brazilian Naturals by 1.8%, where it retracted from 114.36 to 112.36 US cents/lb from July to August 2022. The arbitrage between New York and London Futures markets shrunk by 1.2%, falling to 119.79 US Cents/lb in August 2022 from 121.24 US cents/lb in July 2022.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP increased 0.2 percentage points between July and August 2022, reaching 10.3%. Robustas and the London futures market presented the lowest volatility amongst all group indicators, at 6.6% and 7.1% in August 2022. The Brazilian Naturals volatility, was the highest amongst the group indicators, averaging 13.3%, a 1.0 percentage point increase from the previous month. The variation in volatility of the Colombian Milds and Other Milds for July to August 2022 is 0.4 to 10.0% and 0.6 to 11.4%, respectively, and there was significant volatility of the New York futures market, posting an increase of 1.1 percentage points, averaging 14.6% for the month of August 2022.

The New York certified stocks decreased 6.5% from the previous month, closing in at 0.72 million bags, the lowest in over 20 years, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.61 million bags, representing a decrease of 10.9%.

Global exports of green beans in July 2022 totalled 9.04 million bags, compared with 9.91 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 8.8%. The slump was spread across all four groups of coffee, with the Colombian Milds recording the biggest drop, falling by 12.5% year-on-year. The double-digit decrease in July pushed the cumulative total exports of green beans for coffee year 2021/22 into red, down 0.8% as compared to 0.1% increase for the first nine months of the current coffee year. The cumulative total for 2021/22 to July is 98.08 million bags as compared with 98.97 million bags over the same period a year ago. Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 12.5% to 1.02 million bags in July 2022 from 1.17 million bags in July 2021, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 15.7% in July 2022. As a result of the relatively sharp downturn, exports of the Colombian Milds in October 2021–July 2022 were down by 3.7% at 10.48 million bags, as compared with 10.88 million bags in the first 10 months of coffee year 2020/21. Colombia exported 0.929 million bags of green beans in July 2022, the lowest since 0.928 million bags were shipped in July 2017.

In the previous two ICO reports, the monthly movements of exports from Colombia, up an average 108.9% in May–June 2022, were explained as being technical, reflecting the dramatic changes of the previous year, down an average 43.3% over May–June 2021. However, for July 2022, the sharp fall in exports is linked to the sharper drop in production, which had fallen by 22% in the same month.

The recovery of the Brazilian Naturals, first seen in May and continuing into June, was broken in July, with exports falling by 6.7% at 2.57 million bags as compared with 2.75 million bags in July 2021. This reversal of fortune was driven by Brazil, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, with logistical bottlenecks and harvesting delays impacting July exports. For the first 10 months of coffee year 2021/22, exports of the Brazilian Naturals stood at 31.68 million bags, down 6.8% from 34.0 million bags over the same period a year ago. Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 9.9% in July to 2.23 million bags from 2.47 million bags in the same period last year. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports continued to increase but at a declining rate, falling to 0.9% in the first 10 months of coffee year 2021/22 (19.99 million bags vs 19.8 million bags) from 2.5% in the first nine months of the same coffee year. Exports of Robustas totalled 3.23 million bags in July 2022, as compared with 3.52 million bags in July 2021, down 8.4%. Exports of green beans for the first 10 months of the current and previous coffee years for Robustas were 35.95 million bags and 34.29 million bags, respectively, up 4.8%.

Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 18.5% in July 2022 to 1.01 million bags from 0.85 million bags in July 2021. In the first 10 months of coffee year 2021/22, a total of 10.04 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing an increase of 4.3% from the 9.53 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. The share of soluble coffee of the total exports of all forms of coffee was 9.2% (measured on a moving 12- month average) in July 2022. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 3.26 million bags in the first 10 months of coffee year 2021/22, followed by India with 2.0 million bags, with Indonesia in third place at 1.48 million bags exported over the same period. Exports of roasted beans increased by 3.4% in July 2022 to 67,101 bags from 64,290 bags in July 2021.

In October 2021 to July 2022, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 8.5% to 42.24 million bags. During this period, shipments from Brazil declined by 12.4% to 31.98 million bags from 37.22 million bags in October-July 2020/21. The volume of exports from Colombia is down 13.2% in the first 10 months of coffee year 2021/22 at 10.28 million bags, from 10.59 million bags in the same period a year ago. The fall in the exports is linked to persistent unfavourable weather conditions reducing the available supply of coffee in the country.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia & Oceania increased by 4.0% to 3.19 million bags in July 2022, and by 16.0% to 37.6 million bags in the first 10 months of coffee year 2021/22. During these periods, Vietnam’s exports decreased by 1.9% to 1.95 million bags, but were still up 17.9% to 24.71 million bags, respectively. India’s shipments were up 10.8% to 0.53 million bags in July 2022, and up 28.9% to 6.07 million bags in the first 10 months of coffee year 2021/22. Exports from Indonesia increased by 31.6% to 0.58 million bags in July 2022 and were up 0.2% to 5.59 million bags in October–July 2021/22.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 13.1% to 1.41 million bags in July 2022 from 1.62 million bags in July 2021. For the first 10 months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 11.36 million bags as compared with 11.83 million bags in coffee year 2020/21. Exports from Tanzania were down 66.6% in July and by 4.9% in the first 10 months of coffee year 2021/22, at 11,754 bags and 0.84 million bags, respectively. Over the same periods, exports from Ethiopia decreased by 23.5% to 0.5 million bags, but increased 6.4% to 3.25 million, respectively.

In July 2022, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico & Central America were down 16.2% to 1.54 million bags as compared with 1.83 million in July 2021. For the first 10 months of the current coffee year, exports are down 5.6%, totalling 13.61 million bags as compared with 14.42 million bags in October–July 2020/21. The region’s sharp downturn in July, just as it was for June 2022, was due to the 41.1% fall in exports from Honduras, the largest exporter of the region, shipping 0.39 million bags in July 2022 as compared with 0.66 million bags in July 2021.

For the first 10 months of coffee year 2021/22, Honduras has exported 4.28 million bags, down 17.9% from 5.22 million bags in the same period in coffee year 2020/21. Less rainfall during the bean-filling period in some growing regions, a high incidence of rust disease as a result of hurricanes Eta and Iota, and stumping following an earlier outbreak of rust disease, which led renewal in 2012 that reached peak production between the 2018/2020 harvests, all affected the country’s supply of coffee and continue to negatively affect exports from Honduras.

The latest provisional outlook for total production in coffee year 2021/22 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags, a 2.1% decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags in the previous coffee year.

World coffee consumption is projected to grow by 3.3% to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2021/22 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020/21. In 2021/22, consumption is expected to exceed production by 3.1 million bags.

For the full ICO report, visit: ico.org.

The post Robustas made the biggest gains in August, up 9.2% appeared first on Tea & Coffee Trade Journal.

Average prices for all group indicators decreased in July 2022. The Brazilian Naturals fell the most, dropping 6.8% from June to July 2022, sinking to an average 214.8 US cents/lb for the month. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds, decreased by 5.1% and 6.5% respectively, month-on-month in July.

The former averaged 286.07 US cents/lb in July 2022, whilst the latter averaged 255.91 US cents/lb. The downturns are in part due to the average second and third positions of the New York futures market, which fell by 8.1% in July 2022 over June 2022. The average of the second and third positions of the ICE Futures Europe for the Robustas decreased by 5.2%. This is reflected in the relatively lower rate of fall of the Robustas group indicator in July 2022, dropping down to an average 100.44 US cents/lb from 103.81 US Cents/lb in June, a 3.2% month-on-month decline.

All the Arabicas lost ground against the Robustas in July 2022. The Brazilian Naturals suffered the biggest loss, with the differential falling by 9.7% month-on-month to 114.36 US Cents/lb from 126.59 US Cents/lb. The Colombian Milds fared the best against the Robustas, despite the differential narrowing by 6.1% to 185.63 US Cents/lb in July 2022 from 197.76 US Cents/lb in June 2022. Against the other Arabicas, on-the-other-hand, the Colombian Milds made second and third consecutive months of gain, increasing the differential to the Other Milds and Brazilian Naturals by 8.2% and 0.1%, to 30.16 US Cents/lb and 71.27/lb, respectively.

The arbitrage between the New York and London Futures markets shrunk by 10.1%, falling to 121.24 US Cents/lb in July 2022 from 134.90 US cents/lb in June 2022.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP decreased 1.1 percentage point between June and July 2022, reaching 10.1%. Robustas and the London futures market presented the lowest volatility amongst all group indicators, at 6.3% and 6.4% in July 2022. The Brazilian Naturals volatility was the highest amongst the groups, averaging 12.3%, a 1.2 percentage point drop from the previous month. The variation in volatility of the Colombian Milds and Other Milds for June to July 2022 is -0.6 to 9.6% and -0.2 to 10.8%, respectively. The volatility of the New York futures market gained by 0.2 percentage points, averaging 13.5% for the month of July 2022.

The New York certified stocks decreased 11.2% from the previous month, closing in at 1.03 million bags whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.76 million bags, representing an increase of 2.9%.

Global exports of green beans in June 2022 totalled 10.03 million bags, compared with 9.95 million bags in the same month of the previous year, up 0.8%. Three out of the four groups also increased their exports in June 2022, with only the Other Milds recording a fall, dropping by 13.5%. Despite the double-digit increase in June, for the first nine months of coffee year 2021-22 exports of green beans totalled 89.09 million bags, up only 0.1% as compared with 89.04 million bags for the same period in coffee year 2020-21.

The Brazilian Naturals have continued their recovery, first seen in May 2022, in June, up 12.0% at 3.19 million bags as compared with 2.84 million bags in June 2021. The recovery is driven by Brazil, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, as the container and shipping issues it faced earlier in the current coffee year continue to be resolved. In May and June 2022, exports of green beans in Brazil increased by 6.2% and 2.3%, respectively, following 10 consecutive months of negative growths. Nevertheless, exports of the Brazilian Naturals remain 6.8% down for the first nine months of coffee year 2021-22 at 29.08 million bags from 31.22 million bags in the same period a year ago, down 8.9%.

Exports of the Colombian Milds increased by 8.9% to 0.98 million bags in June 2022 versus 0.9 million bags in June 2021, driven primarily by Colombia, whose exports of green beans were up 5.4% in June 2022. Despite the jump, exports of the Colombian Milds from October 2021 to June 2022 remain down by 2.3% at 9.5 million bags as compared with 9.71 million bags in the first nine months of coffee year 2020-21. The sharp increase in the growth of the Colombian Milds is technical, reflecting the 21.0% drop in exports in June 2021, which in turn was due largely to the spill-over of the social unrest occurring throughout Colombia in May, which hampered the normal flow of exports.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 13.5% in June to 2.343 million bags from 2.7 million bags in the same period last year. For the first nine months of coffee year 2021-22, exports of the Other Milds were 17.79 million bags as compared with 17.33 million bags in October 2020 to June 2021, a 2.7% increase. Exports of Robustas totalled 3.52 million bags in June 2022, as compared with 3.5 million bags in June 2021, up 0.5%. Exports of green beans for the first nine months of the current and previous coffee years for Robustas were 32.72 million bags and 30.77 million bags, respectively, up 6.3%.

In October 2021 to June 2022, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 8.5% to 42.26 million bags. During this period, shipments from Brazil declined by 14.2% to 29.5 million bags from 34.4 million bags in October 2020 to June 2021. Continuing issues with availability of containers and shipping capacity, albeit with reported improvements in recent months, and a smaller crop harvested during its Arabica ‘off-season’, are the main reasons for the sharp fall. The volume of exports from Colombia is down 1.6% for the first nine months of coffee year 2021-22 at 9.24 million bags, versus 9.4 million bags for the same period last year. The fall in exports is linked to persistent unfavourable weather conditions reducing the available coffee supply in the country.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania increased by 9.4% to 3.61 million bags in June 2022, and by 17.3% to 34.38 million bags in the first nine months of coffee year 2021-22. During these same periods, Vietnam’s exports increased by 12.9% to 2.36 million bags, and 20.0% to 22.77 million bags, respectively. India’s shipments were down 1.3% to 0.63 million bags in June 2022, but up 31.0% to 5.54 million bags in the first nine months of coffee year 2021-22. Exports from Indonesia increased by 15.8% to 0.52 million bags in June 2022 but were down 2.0% to 5.01 million bags in October 2021 to June 2022.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 2.4% to 1.36 million bags in June 2022 from 1.39 million bags in June 2021. For the first nine months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 10.01 million bags as compared with 10.22 million bags in coffee year 2020-21. Uganda’s exports have continued to fall, decreasing by 14.6% in June 2022 and 5.4% in October 2021 to June 2022 as compared with the same period a year ago. Lower production stemming from droughts in some parts of the country’s coffee-growing regions also continues to explain the fall in Uganda’s coffee exports. Exports from Tanzania were down 2.3% in the first nine months of coffee year 2021-22 at 0.83 million bags as compared with 0.85 million bags for the same period last year. Over the same period, exports from Ethiopia increased 14.5% to 2.75 million bags from 2.4 million bags.

In June 2022, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 16.9% to 1.81 million bags as compared with 2.18 million in June 2021. For the first nine months of the current coffee year, exports are down 3.7%, totalling 12.12 million bags as compared with 12.58 million bags in October 2020 to June 2021. The region’s sharp downturn in June was due to the 33.5% fall in exports from Honduras, the largest exporter of the region, which shipped 0.52 million bags in June 2022 as compared with 0.78 million bags in June 2021.

For the first nine months of coffee year 2021-22, Honduras exported 3.85 million bags, down 15.5% from 4.56 million bags in the same period in coffee year 2020-21. Less rainfall during the bean-filling period across several growing regions, a high incidence of rust disease because of hurricanes Eta and Iota in 2020, and stumping following an earlier outbreak of rust disease in 2012 led renewal that reached peak production between the 2018-2020 harvests; hence the country’s coffee supply continues to negatively affect exports from Honduras.

Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 7.6% in June 2022 to 1.01 million bags versus 0.94 million bags in June 2021. In the first nine months of coffee year 2021-22, a total of 9.05 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing an increase of 4.3% from the 8.68 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. The share of soluble coffee within the total exports of all forms of coffee was 10.0% (measured on a moving 12-month average) in June 2022, the same as in June 2021. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 2.96 million bags in the first nine months of coffee year 2021-22, followed by India with 1.6 million bags. Indonesia takes third place with 1.25 million bags exported over the same period.

Exports of roasted beans decreased by 11.2% in June 2022 to 72,472 bags, down from 81,610 bags in June 2021.

The latest provisional outlook for total production in coffee year 2021-22 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags, a 2.1% decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags of the previous coffee year.

World coffee consumption is still projected to grow by 3.3%, to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2021-22 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020-21. In 2021-22, consumption is expected to exceed production by 3.1 million bags.

For the full report, visit: ico.org.

The post Coffee prices fall back below 200 US cents/lb in July 2022 appeared first on Tea & Coffee Trade Journal.

In June 2022, the I-CIP fluctuated between 197.37 and 206.40 US cents/lb. Average prices for all groups indicators increased in June 2022. The Brazilian Naturals outperformed all growths by gaining 5.8% from May to June 2022, reaching 230.40 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds presented a similar positive trend, increasing by 5.3% and 5.1% respectively. The Colombian Milds averaged 301.57 US cents/lb in June 2022, whilst the Other Milds averaged 273.69 US cents/lb. This upwards trend is in part due to the 2nd and 3rd positions of the New York futures market which expanded by 4.9% from May to June 2022, ranging from 218.61 US cents/lb to 229.38 US cents/lb. The average of the 2nd and 3rd positions of the ICE Futures Europe for Robustas increased by 0.2%, helping to push the Robustas group indicator to 103.81 US cents/lb, up by 0.7% in June 2022.

The differentials between the Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased by 7.2%, from 26.02 to 27.88 US cents/lb from May to June 2022. Presenting the strongest growth for this period is the Brazilian Naturals and Robustas differential which expanded by 10.3%, from 114.75 to 126.59 US cents/lb. The Other Milds and Robusta differential rose by 8.0% from 157.32 to 169.88 US cents/lb. Presenting similarly strong growth is the Colombian Milds and Robustas differential, gaining 7.9% from 183.34 to 197.76 US cents/lb for the same period. The Colombian Milds and Brazilian Naturals differential presented 3.8% growth from May to June 2022, averaging 71.18 US cents/lb for the latter. However, the Other Milds and Brazilian Naturals differential presented the weakest growth at 1.7%, from 42.57 to 43.29 US cents/lb for the period. The arbitrage between New York and London Futures markets developed an 8.5% increase, ranging from 124.30 to 134.90 US cents/lb from May to June 2022.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP increased 0.5 percentage points between May and June 2022, reaching 11.0%. Robustas and the London futures market presented the lowest volatility amongst all group indicators, at 7.5% and 6.9% in June 2022, respectively. The Brazilian Naturals volatility was the highest amongst the groups, averaging 13.5%, a 0.4 percentage point growth from the previous month. The variation in volatility of the Colombian Milds and Other Milds for May to June 2022 is 0.5, increasing to 10.2%, and -0.1, decreasing to 11.0%, respectively. The New York futures market presented 0.7 percentage points of volatility, averaging 13.3% for the month of June 2022.

The New York certified stocks decreased 11.2% from the previous month, closing in at 1.03 million bags whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.76 million bags, representing an increase of 2.9%.

Global exports of green beans in May 2022 totalled 9.75 million bags, compared with 8.8 million bags in the same month of the previous year, up 10.7%. Three of the four groups also increased their exports in May 2022, with Other Milds being the only form to record a decrease, falling by 12.6%. Despite the double-digit increase in May, for the first eight months of coffee year 2021-22, exports of green beans totalled 79.24 million bags, up only 0.2% versus 79.09 million bags for the same period in coffee year 2020-21.

The reason behind the jump in the exports of green beans in May 2022 is the Colombian Milds, which rose by 149.2% in May 2022 to 1.0 million bags versus 0.4 million bags in May 2021. The sharp increase in the growth of the Colombian Milds is technical, reflecting the 56% drop in exports in May 2021, which in turn was due largely to social unrest throughout Colombia, the main country of origin for this group, hampering the normal flow of exports. The export of 0.4 million bags in May 2021 is the lowest since 0.36 million bags of the Colombian Milds were exported in August 1977.

The Brazilian Naturals form remains the primary reason behind the year-to-date fall in exports of green beans, with 25.86 million bags having been exported between October 2021 and May 2022, as compared with 28.38 million bags in the same period a year ago, down 8.9%. This drop in the cumulative volume of exports comes in the face of an improved performance in May 2022, with the shipment up 16.6% to 2.88 million bags from 2.45 million bags in May 2021. Along with a smaller crop harvested during its Arabica ‘off-season’, the impact of the problems with containers and shipping in Brazil, the main country of origin for this group, reported earlier in the current coffee year, overhang the Brazilian Natural market.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 12.6% in May to 2.33 million bags versus 2.67 million bags in the same period last year. For the first eight months of coffee year 2021-22, exports of the Other Milds amounted to 15.48 million bags versus 14.63 million bags in October–May 2020-21, a 5.8% increase. Exports of Robustas totalled 3.54 million bags in May 2022, as compared with 3.27 million bags in May 2021, up 8.4%. Exports of green beans for the first eight months of the current and previous coffee years for Robustas are 29.4 million bags and 27.27 million bags, respectively, up 7.8%.

Total exports of all forms of coffee were up 10% in May 2022, totalling 10.8 million bags, while in the first eight months of coffee year 2021-22 they reached 87.99 million bags, with a consolidated increase of 0.7% In October 2021 to May 2022, South America’s exports decreased by 9.9% to 37.92 million bags. During this period, shipments from Brazil declined by 16.0% to 26.36 million bags versus 31.39 million bags in October–May 2020-21. Continuing issues with the availability of containers and reduced shipping capacity, albeit with reported improvements in recent months, together with a smaller crop harvested during its Arabica ‘off-season’, are the main reasons behind the sharp fall. The volume of exports from Colombia is down 2.3% for the first eight months of coffee year 2021-22 at 8.29 million bags versus 8.49 million bags for the same period last year. The fall in exports is linked to persistent unfavourable weather conditions which have reduced the available supply of coffee in the country.

Exports from Asia and Oceania increased by 16.9% to 3.72 million bags in May 2022, and by 19.7% to 31.13 million bags in the first eight months of coffee year 2021-22. Vietnam’s exports during these periods increased by 16.1% to 2.44 million bags, and 20.9% to 20.4 million bags, respectively. India’s shipments increased by 29% to 0.64 million bags in May 2022, and by 35.5% to 4.87 million bags in the first eight months of coffee year 2021-22. Exports from Indonesia increased by 8.4% to 0.52 million bags in May 2022, and by 5.1% to 4.91 million bags in October– May 2021-22.

Exports from Africa decreased by 0.9% to 1.29 million bags in May 2022 from 1.3 million bags in May 2021. For the first eight months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 8.65 million bags versus 8.82 million bags in coffee year 2020-21. Uganda’s exports have continued to fall, decreasing by 7.9% in May 2022 and 4.0% in October 2021–May 2022, as compared with the same period a year ago. Lower production stemming from droughts in some areas of the country’s coffee-growing regions also continues to explain the fall in Uganda’s exports of coffee. Tanzania’s exports are also down 3.6% in the first eight months of coffee year 2021-22 at 0.78 million bags as compared with 0.8 million bags in the same period last year. Meanwhile, exports from Ethiopia increased to 2.28 million bags in the same period, representing a rise of 18.9% from 1.91 million bags.

In May 2022, exports from Mexico and Central America were down 14.5% to 1.87 million bags as compared with 2.19 million in May 2021. For the first eight months of the current coffee year, exports are down 1.1%, totalling 10.29 million bags versus the 10.41 million bags recorded between October 2020 and May 2021. The region’s sharp downturn in May 2022 was due to the 37.3% fall in exports from Honduras, the region’s largest exporter, which shipped 0.52 million bags in May 2022 versus 0.83 million bags in May 2021. Over the first eight months of coffee year 2021-22, Honduras has exported 3.33 million bags, down 11.8% from 3.78 million bags in the same period in coffee year 2020-21. This poor performance by Honduras to date is related to less rainfall during the bean-filling period across several growing regions, as well as a high incidence of rust disease because of hurricanes Eta and Iota in 2020. Moreover, following an earlier outbreak of rust disease in 2012, stumping led a renewal process that reached peak production between the 2018-2020 harvests, hence the current downturn in the country’s coffee supply.

Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 3.0% in May 2022 to 0.98 million bags versus 0.95 million bags in May 2021. In the first eight months of coffee year 2021-22, a total of 8.19 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing an increase of 5.7% from the 7.74 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. As a result, the share of soluble coffee within the total exports of all forms of coffee has risen to 10.1% (measured on a moving 12-month average) in May 2022 versus 10.0% in May 2021. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 2.61 million bags in the first eight months of coffee year 2021-22, followed by India and Indonesia with 1.45 million and 1.224 million bags exported over the same period, respectively.

Exports of roasted beans increased by 9.9% in May 2022 to 75,329 bags versus 68,539 bags in May 2021.

The latest provisional outlook for total production in coffee year 2021-22 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags, a 2.1% decrease versus 170.83 million bags in the previous coffee year.

World coffee consumption is still projected to grow by 3.3% to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2021-22 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020-21. In 2021-22, consumption is expected to exceed production by 3.1 million bags. However, exogenous factors such as reduced global economic growth and increased cost of inputs, production and trade may affect both supply and demand in the remaining four months of coffee year 2021-22.

For the full report, visit: ico.org.

The post I-CIP rebounds to over 200 US cents/lb for the first time since February appeared first on Tea & Coffee Trade Journal.

Kenya is the third largest tea producer in the world and holds the leading spot in global tea exports followed by Uganda, Malawi, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe, which all contribute importantly to global trade. Continued investments aim to further develop this vital asset for their national economies by supplying even more teas to old and new customers.

It is worth noting, however, that tea is not native to Africa – commercial planting was introduced under colonial rule, with tea seeds from the United Kingdom’s Royal Botanical Gardens in Kew and Edinburgh and later from Ceylon (Sri Lanka) and India.The African tea-growing areas are mostly located in mountainous regions, with cool clean air and abundant rains. They stretch from the gentle hills of Cameroon in the West to the high plateaus and mountain slopes on both sides of the Great Rift Valley, that cuts steeply down through the East of the African continent.

Fresh leaf arrival in the factory, Rwanda

According to London Tea Auction records, the first successful tea planting was carried out in Malawi, near Blantyre in 1878; followed by planting in Uganda and Rhodesia – Zimbabwe today- in 1900.The first tea planting in Kenya took place in 1904 with more tea planting starting in 1920 in Tanzania and Mozambique. Tea had been introduced to the island of Mauritius in the Indian Ocean on an experimental basis as early as 1871 by a French settler, with commercial production initiated in 1891. Much later tea was introduced by Belgian settlers in Burundi in the 1930s, in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in the 1940s, and in Rwanda in the 1950s. In 1955, the Commonwealth Development Corporation started to grow tea in the coastal area of West Cameroon. Tea has been thriving all over with crops on a steady upward trend, generating prosperity through modern agri-technology and manufacturing methods that retain excellent quality for leaf and liquor.

The many political changes brought about after the end of World War II have shifted the remaining colonial rules. Between 1960 and 1961, all African countries had become independent nations, one by one. With some of the new borders cutting through ancestral territories, creating ethnic strife, civil war and undemocratic rulers generating political disorder, some severe disruptions have occurred in the period following independence, namely in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Uganda, Rwanda, and Mozambique and more new nations were created through further territorial separations after long conflicts.

After independence, additional countries launched commercial tea cultivation, namely Zambia and South Africa in 1964 and Ethiopia in the 1970s. Today, there are 13 African nations that cultivate tea commercially. This crop is considered vital for generating export revenue and employment, whilst also providing good cups for a growing domestic demand.

Africa’s place in the global tea market

According to 2020 data published by the London based International Tea Committee (ITC), Africa’s 13 tea-producing countries generate a total production of 795,600 metric tonnes (mt) of tea. With a growth rate of +36.4 per cent over the past 10 years, the total African tea production represents, however, only 12.7 per cent of the world production, which is dominated by the giants China and India, with respective shares of 47 per cent and 20 per cent of the world’s total tea output.

Bearing in mind that in China and India, the domestic consumers drink most of their teas themselves, while the African tea-producing countries manufacture their teas first as an export revenue crop. African tea production has therefore grown into a vital part of the global tea economy and represents the biggest share of the world’s tea exports with a volume of 713,300 mt in 2020, i.e., 39 per cent of the internationally traded teas, compared to a share of 34 per cent in 2011.

Christine Simon meeting Kenya High Comissioner in London HE Manoah Esipisu April 2022

It is important to underline the geographical location of the main East African tea areas—all are situated across and close to the equator, which allows for year-round plucking without any dormancy period, hence offering a continued supply of fresh teas all throughout the year. This highly attractive aspect has made African producers the number one supplier for several of the main black tea importing markets, namely Pakistan, Egypt and the United Kingdom. Kenyan teas have also started to gain a growing share of the Russian and United States markets.

African tea production by ranking

Kenya is the leading producer in Africa (and globally) with an output of 570,000 mt in 2020, up 50 per cent over the past 10 years. Uganda follows with an output of 66,400 mt in 2020, up 23 per cent since 2011. Malawi ranks third with an output of 45,200 mt, down by 4 per cent over the last 10 years due to adverse weather conditions. Rwanda is the fourth largest tea producer in Africa with a 2020 output of 33,000 mt, an increase of 37 per cent since 2011, and then Tanzania with a 2020 production volume of 28,500 mt, down 13 per cent since 2011. Zimbabwe is next with a 2020 production standing at 14,000 mt, down by 4 per cent since 2011, followed by Burundi, with a 2020 production of 11,200 mt, having grown by 60 per cent over the past 10 years. With a production below 7,000 mt in 2020, the six remaining tea-producing countries are Ethiopia, Mozambique, Cameroon, DRC, South Africa, and Mauritius.

Kenya and Rwanda black teas

To further increase tea production, new lands must be cleared for new plantations or old fields must be replanted with higher yielding new bushes or to densify intensely. In line with the various geographical settings and the availability of appropriate arable lands, certain countries have been able to significantly expand the areas planted with tea, whilst others could not. ITC data shows that tea acreage has expanded significantly over the past 10 years in Kenya, with 269,400 hectares (ha) under tea (up 43 per cent); in Uganda, with 46,500 ha (up 62 per cent); and in Rwanda, with 25,000 ha, (up 67 per cent). Reviewing the average yield rates of made tea per hectare gives additional means to appreciate the dynamics of the various national tea economies in Africa. Per ITC data for 2018-20, yield rates range from +/-2,500kg/ha in Malawi, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, and Mauritius, to +/-2,000 kg/ha in Kenya and Mozambique, to +/-1,500kg/ha in Cameroon, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania. The lowest yield rates are in Burundi, South Africa and DRC.

Akina new Kenya signature blends

It has also been reported that foreign investment in the tea sector is on the rise, namely that the Japanese government is carrying out pilot production of green tea by providing instructions for planting that will allow the use of machinery for harvesting and for processing the leaf into quality green teas. There is also more investment from Sri Lanka, whilst China continues to invest in infrastructure, namely roads and port equipment, which are vital for transporting containers for export goods.

The Profile of African teas

The vast majority of the African tea production is black CTC tea, harvested from Camellia sinensis var assamica tea plants, brought originally from Assam, Ceylon (Sri Lanka) and the British Royal Botanical Gardens. More than 30 new cultivars have been developed over the past few decades by the East and Central African Tea Research Foundations (TRF) in Kericho, Kenya and in Mulanje, Malawi, which has widely improved yield, pest and drought resistance and, of course, cup quality. Dr Albert Chayanga, former head of the Central African Tea Research recalls that “the set of cultivars developed here in Malawi is famous for their bright red liquor and hence sought after for blending. We have shared some with our neighbours, Rwanda in particular, where these bushes prosper well too.”

With the remit of sharing information, networking and enhancing the upgrading of the identity and profile of the many African teas, the East African Tea Trade Association (EATTA) based in Mombasa, Kenya, launched the first African Tea Convention in Mombasa, Kenya in 2011. The second was held in 2013 in Kigali, Rwanda, followed by the third in 2017 in Nairobi, Kenya and the fourth in Kampala, Uganda, in May 2019. After the disruption of the Covid pandemic, the 5th African Tea Convention will take place in Bujumbura, Burundi, 20-22 July this year.

CTC vs orthodox & specialty teas

With tea becoming the world’s number one brewed cup more than ten years ago, the trend towards more premiumisation, with more single origin and specialty leaf has now spread to Africa. For more than 20 years such premium cup strategies have been successfully applied by companies in Western ownership and hence with direct access to demanding Western consumer markets, the acknowledged pioneers being Sorwathe Ltd, established in 1975, in Kinihira, Rwanda and Satemwa Tea Estate, founded in 1923 in Thiolo, Malawi. Their outstanding specialty estate teas have been well promoted for many years now, have attracted attention and fetched rewards and awards.

Kenya orthodox teas from KTDA gardens FBOPF Ceylon style

The reputation built up by these East African branded premium cups from Malawi and Rwanda is now paving the way for other tea estates and other tea-market operators to focus on added value and target the niche market with high profile quality cups. For example, newcomer Empire Kenya EPZ, based in Mombasa, Kenya, has started to promote premium black tea blends and orthodox leaf teas under the brand Akina. Marketed with the motto ‘Buy Kenyan Tea’, Christine Simon runs the website and digital marketing. Enthusiastic about the development of this premium range, Simon recently returned from the UK where she presented the company and its premium tea range to the Kenyan High Commissioner in London. She indicated that Empire Kenya sources black and purple teas from several KTDA tea estates that have a well-established orthodox production line, whilst they must go through the Mombasa auction to buy premium CTC. According to the media, the auction’s monopoly for CTC teas is currently being challenged by the trade that feel that this constraint is counterproductive for further development and expansion

With the world recovering from the Covid pandemic, tea is very much in the consumers’ focus as they want genuine, healthy and zero calorie beverages and wish to advance sustainability and ethical trade. Bearing in mind the global warming that affects lower producing regions, the tea fields in Africa’s high plateaus may well become pivotal to global demand, for both the mainstream and the premium segment.

• Barbara Dufrêne is the former Secretary General of the European Tea Committee and editor of La Nouvelle du Thé. She may be reached at: b-dufrêne@orange.fr.

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Going forward, the private sector and civil society will participate as Affiliate Members in key discussions and decisions on the sustainable future of global coffee affairs with 75 coffee producing and importing nations, ICO Member Governments. The goal of the 2022 International Coffee Agreement (ICA) is to find new ways to improve conditions in an over USD $300 billion a year industry that provides a livelihood for millions of people from farmers to baristas across the world. Indeed, coffee farmers have suffered much in the wake of a 2019 coffee pricing crisis, extreme weather including droughts, flooding, frosts and blight, resulting in crop losses and prompting many to quit a business that had been in their family for generations. Smallholders, who only have less than one or two hectares of land each to produce coffee, for example, are the most vulnerable with incomes of just USD $500 a year.

The chair of the International Coffee Council (ICC), H.E. Ambassador Iván Romero-Martínez of Honduras, stressed that with the approval of the new ICA, the ICC marked a new era for the ICO, its members, the global coffee sector and for millions of coffee farmers whose work, every day, allow us to taste a wonderful coffee. He further pointed out that ICO members showed the world that the coffee sector is strong and united as ICO reaffirms itself as the centre of the ‘coffee diplomacy’, committed to making the coffee value chain more sustainable, inclusive, and resilient.

“We are entering a new era of cooperation with the private sector thanks to the landmark International Coffee Agreement 2022,” said Vanusia Nogueira, who joined in May as the ICO’s first female executive director. “The arrival of the world’s biggest high-street names and manufacturers as well as smallholders means that the whole coffee value chain can now address the biggest challenges facing the global sector in a way that is fair for all,” she added.

The new ICA goes beyond the traditional divide between exporting and importing members as all members are committed to working together to address the increasing challenges of the coffee industry. The private sector and government entities will coordinate strategies to address more efficiently those challenges. This will benefit producers across 50 countries as coffee growers and their associations will be able to raise their concerns directly with retailers and manufacturers.

Moreover, the new ICA gives a clear and firm mandate to the ICO Secretariat to assist members in putting together coffee sector development projects and mobilising resources in areas such as pest and disease control, climate change adaptation among other mitigating strategies. This comes at a time when expanding demand for coffee will contribute to maintaining a balance between supply and demand, supporting fair market prices.

“The industry has changed dramatically in the last 30 years in terms of governance and value distribution between producing and consumer nations. We can now come together and put a bigger emphasis on the development of the global circular coffee economy. Ultimately, we want to create a brighter future for millions of coffee farmers by adhering to the United Nations’ Sustainability Development Goals and work for more transparency, quality and fair pricing for billions of consumers. The new agreement is a huge step in this direction,” said Nogueira.

The new ICA represents a fresh mandate for the ICO. It is the seventh of its kind since 1962 after the first International Coffee Agreement at the United Nations in New York defined coffee export quotas. The 2022 ICA has come a long way since then, now that the ICO can bring all parties to the table for the first time and tackle challenges through international private and public cooperation, involving its member governments, which represent 93% of world coffee production and 63% of world consumption. Today, the world drinks more than two billion cups of coffee a day.

“The new agreement is an effective instrument to paving the way to a more unified front, establishing a consensus and shared vision on how to best implement and promote actions by governments and the private sector, while also engaging all key coffee-related institutions, NGOs, international and financial institutions plus other development partners, research bodies and academia,” said Nogueira, who previously represented Brazil, the world’s biggest coffee producer, in global coffee affairs as the executive director of the Brazilian Specialty Coffee Association.

While the ICO will not change its intergovernmental nature, as part of the Agreement, the current Coffee Public-Private Task Force has been integrated into the ICO as the Coffee Public-Private Working Party. On top of this, the Private Sector Consultative Board will be transformed into the Board of Affiliate Members, creating a new institutional framework and leading to the non-government affiliation since 1963 when the ICO was established in London.

The ICA’s key points also redefine the ICO’s internal voting system and members’ contributions to better reflect the transformation in the global coffee chain over the last 30 years, accounting for distortions between producing (exporting) and consumer (importing) countries as well as Arabica versus Robusta coffee-producing nations. The change in membership contributions to the administrative budget will increase the financial sustainability of the Organization and its capacity to carry out its mandate.

In terms of production, the world produces 4.18 million tonnes of Robusta coffee, or 69.67 million 60-kg bags a year, and 6.07 million tonnes of Arabica, or 101.16 million 60-kg bags, annually as of 2020. This is up from 1.74 million tonnes of Robusta and 4.34 million tonnes for Arabica coffee in 1991.

For more information, visit: ico.org.

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Colcafé won the award mainly due to its innovation efforts driven by a customer-centric approach and thanks to a first-class costumer service, which has built a reputation for the brand as a coffee solutions partner for the most important beverages companies around the world. The prize also recognises the investment in increasing the production capability, the volume of its exports and the environmental sustainability projects (focused on water, energy, and gas consumption reduction and the development of a biodegradable cup with upcycled coffee).

“We believe that developing business opportunities outside of Colombia is essential to compete with the best and by that, keep growing in a sustainable way. We are committed to present proposals that position Grupo Nutresa as a company that offers global consumer products,” said Miguel Moreno Múnera, president of the Coffee Business of Grupo Nutresa.

The business stated: “We would like to thank all our stakeholders for making this possible and special thanks to our global clients for trusting in our solutions and experience. We will keep working to provide excellent quality, innovation, and sustainable coffee solutions.”

Colcafe, founded in 1950, is an innovative and global coffee solutions partner for the B2C and B2B industry. Since 1950, the company has been serving the most relevant players in the beverage industry worldwide, helping to develop its businesses through high coffee expertise, sustainability vision, innovative and tailor-made products, and an extensive manufacturing capacity, strategically located worldwide in seven manufacturing facilities in the USA, Colombia, Chile, and Malaysia. Colcafe is part of Grupo Nutresa, the most sustainable food company in the world, according to the Dow Jones Sustainability Index 2021. (gruponutresa.com/en).

To view the ceremony for the National Exports Award 2021, visit: www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYyLeho0pKI

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Under the guidelines of the World Customs Organization, in Colombia this authorisation is granted by the National Directorate of Taxes and Customs (DIAN) as the customs authority and by the Anti-Narcotics Police to those companies that meet the highest security standards throughout the supply chain, in addition to a satisfactory record of compliance with customs and fiscal obligations.

Being an AEO results in a series of benefits for the FNC foreign trade operations and recognition as a safe company for both business associates and control authorities.

“With this recognition, the FNC not only continues to set the standard in the industry, in this case in terms of security of its logistics chain, but it will also contribute to increasing the reputation of Café de Colombia in the world,” said Roberto Vélez, CEO of the Bogotá-based FNC.

In its Integrated Management System (SGI), regarding risk management the FNC addresses operational, legal, reputation/image, prevention of money laundering and financing of terrorism, information security and physical security aspects, among others. To become an AEO, with the motto ‘Security and trust until the cup’ as its compass, the FNC redoubled efforts in security terms, with the participation of all its workers in preventive actions that reduce possible impacts of undesired internal or external situations.

To this end, the organisation adopted the Control and Security component in its SGI as a key element for the supply chain of green and industrialised coffee, which entails complying with international security requirements and high standards.

Being recognised as a reliable and secure operator makes the FNC more competitive in the eyes of its customers, opening doors for future businesses, as buyers around the world give more and more priority to companies that are strong in environmental, social and security compliance.

Better processing times will also be achieved thanks to simplified customs procedures and submission of brief declarations of import and export of goods, with less physical and documentary controls, among other benefits.

AEO programmes have three fundamental pillars: trust, transparency and cooperation, crucial elements of the relationship between customs authorities and private companies. Their objective is to guarantee minimum levels of security and facilitate international trade, forging solid partnerships between the public and private sectors that guarantee security of the entire supply chain and build international relationships of trust.

“Thanks to the work of business partners, customers and employees, the FNC has this important recognition that encourages it to continue working with pride and commitment to continue bringing security and trust up to the cup,” Vélez added.

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Since January 2021, when the ICO Composite Indicator was at 115.73 US cents/lb, an increase of 75.5% has been recorded to December 2021, when the average price reached a decade long high since September 2011, which averaged 213.04 US cents/lb. The steady and consistent upward trend observed since the start of coffee year 2020-21 shows how after ten consecutive years of low-price levels a remarkable recovery of coffee prices has occurred, breaching the 200 US cents/lb mark.

The highest increase occurred in the Brazilian Naturals Group indicator price, which reached 230.26 US cents/lb, an increase of 5.2% as compared to 218.90 US cents/lb registered in the previous month. This equates to almost doubling in price since January 2021 where the Brazilian Naturals were priced at 116.69 US Cents/lb. The price for the Colombian Milds increased by 3.9% to 290.57 US cents/lb in December 2021 as compared to 279.56 US cents/lb in November 2021. Prices for the Other Milds increased by 3.4% to 267.71 US cents/lb in December 2021, as compared to 258.95 US cents/lb in the previous month. Robustas, priced at 112.76 US cents/lb in December, showed the lowest growth of all groups, increasing by 3.1% in the past month.

The differential between the Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased by 11.0% since November 2021 to 22.86 US cents/lb in December 2021. The differential between the Colombian Milds and Brazilian Naturals decreased by 0.6%, to 60.31 US cents/lb in December 2021. The differential between the Colombian Milds and Robustas increased by 4.5%, from 170.16 cents/lb in November 2021 to 177.81 US cents/lb in December 2021. The differential between the Other Milds and Brazilian Naturals decreased by 6.5%to 37.45 US cents/lb in December 2021 from 40.06 US cents/lb in November 2021. The arbitrage between Arabica and Robusta coffees, as measured on the New York and London futures markets, increased by 5.1% to 130.00 US cents/lb in December 2021, as compared with 123.64 US cents/lb in November 2021.

As coffee prices continued to increase, intra-day volatility in December 2021 of the ICO composite indicator price increased by 0.6 percentage points to 10.1% in December 2021. The Brazilian Naturals indicator showed a growing volatility of 12.9% in December 2021, as compared to 11.8% in November 2021 and was the highest among all the groups. The Colombian Milds recorded a level of volatility of 9.8% in December 2021, as compared to 9.3% recorded in November 2021. Volatility for the Other Milds increased slightly from 10.2% in November 2021 to 10.4% in December 2021. The Robusta indicator showed the lowest volatility at 7.8% in December 2021. The volatility of the average of the 2nd and 3rd positions of the New York futures market was 12.3% in December 2021, as compared to 11.9% in November 2021. The volatility of London futures market decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 7.0%.

Combined certified stocks in London and New York have fallen for seven consecutive months to December 2021, down 31.5% to 3.33 million bags from 4.86 million bags in June 2021.

Exports of all forms of coffee in November 2021 totalled 9.25 million 60-kg bags, down 12.4% in comparison to 10.56 million bags in November 2020. The decrease in November 2021 was driven by South America, down 28.0%, outweighing the 17.6% and 29.4% increases seen in Asia & Oceania and Central America & Mexico, respectively. Brazil was the main factor in the steep fall in the November exports from South America, suffering from a 33.9% decrease. Continued difficulties with logistics, especially the availability of shipping containers, and reduced supply from farmers are the two main reasons behind the drop. India, Vietnam and Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua were the principal drivers of the double-digits growth in Asia & Oceania and Central America & Mexico, respectively.

In the first two month of coffee year 2021-22, exports of South America decreased by 24.4% to 9.67 million 60-kg bags as compared to 12.79 million bags in October-November 2020. Over the same period, exports by Brazil decreased by 31.4% to 6.36 million bags from 9.27 million bags. Shipments of Asia & Oceania over the first two month of coffee year 2021-22 was 6.21 million bags versus 5.08 million bags in October-November 2020. Exports from India and Vietnam were 1.06 million bags and 3.42 million bags in October-November 2021 as compared to 0.67 million bags and 2.90 million bags in the first two months of coffee year 2020-21.

Exports from Central America and Mexico were 0.94 million bags in October-November 2021, as compared to 0.72 million bags over the same period during coffee year 2020-21. Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua exported 0.16 million bags, 0.18 million bags and 0.17 million bags, respectively in the first two months of the current coffee year. Exports by Africa decreased by 1.8% to 2.05 million bags in October-November 2021 as compared to 2.09 million bags in the same period in 2020-21. Kenya (-49.7%) and Côte d’Ivoire (-34.1%) were the two main drivers of the fall, outweighing the 17.8% increase by Tanzania, which had exported 1.01 million bags in the first two month of the current coffee year as compared to 0.86 million bags shipped over the same period in 2020-21.

In terms of exports by groups of coffee, Arabica suffered from a 20.8% fall in November 2021, dropping down to 5.72 million bags from 7.22 million bags in November 2020. The steepest decrease was recorded by the Brazilian Naturals, down from 4.62 million bags in November 2020 to 2.94 million bags in November 2021, followed by the Colombian Milds, which dropped to 1.25 million bags from 1.38 million bags, an 8.8% fall. The Other Milds and Robustas, on the other hand, saw 23.9% and 5.7%, respectively, increases in November. As a result, the export of Arabica in the first two months of coffee year 2021-22 is 11.83 million bags and 7.04 million bags for Robustas.

Exports of green coffee reached 16.71 million bags in the two months of the coffee year 2021-22, a decrease of 10.6% as compared to 18.70 million bags for the same period in coffee year 2020-21.

Estimates of total production for coffee year 2020-21 has been revised up marginally to 169.66 million 60-kg bags, representing a 0.4% increase as compared to 169.00 million bags of the previous coffee year. Arabica production is assessed to have grown by 2.3% to 99.28 million bags from 97.08 million bags in 2019-20, while the production of Robusta is gauged as 70.38 million bags, down 2.2% year-on-year from 71.92 million bags in the previous year.

World coffee consumption is assessed marginally up in volume, now estimated to have increased to 167.25 million bags in 2020-21 as compared to 164.08 million for coffee year 2019-20. The production-consumption gap for 2020-21 is therefore reduced to 2.41 million bags.

For the full report, click here.

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